Wx Infinity Forums

sambucol wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:25 pm Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

Could be. We’ll know more in a few days.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:25 pm Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

To soon to say bud

I don’t think it’s pipe busting yet...from what I can tell it’s gonna be step downs with a peak around 1st of Feb and lingering through Feb. Way to soon to tell just how cold it will get...but seems to be that changes are brewing.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:25 pm Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

Nothing currently points to anything colder than we have seen over the last couple years. Lows currently in the 20s look like the worst case scenario but continue to monitor.

Yep, no earth shattering cold. In fact, per most models, the majority of the real cold air is all going East of us once it does come down. Would love someone to correct me if I'm wrong about that.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:05 pm

Belmer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:43 am Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

Actually, the EPS & GEFS ensemble mean has the core of the cold aimed more towards Texas rather than the southeast.

The image I posted was the GFS model run which has been consistent around that range as far as the displacement of the air building up in Canada sliding south. I do see that the EPS has more of the cold coming south rather than quickly moving it to the east. Though, GEFS ensemble mean gives Texas a quick glancing blow of the cold air but the extreme of it is still focused far to the north and east.

Edit to add: GEFS does come down more poleward and has the freezing line close to Houston this weekend. As trough moves eastward it digs a bit more and freezing line looks like it may approach all the way down to the coast from Louisiana into the Florida panhandle with upper 20's even possible for them. North Texas could be quite chilly and up in Oklahoma with mid to upper teens possible for them.
Unfortunately (depending your stance on cold weather), lot of the snow-pack to our north that just fell will melt as it was heavy wet snow to begin with as temperatures were near freezing. Getting a solid snow-pack to our north would certainly help bring down colder temperatures.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:08 am Yep, no earth shattering cold. In fact, per most models, the majority of the real cold air is all going East of us once it does come down. Would love someone to correct me if I'm wrong about that.

Looking at surface temperatures of any model runs right now should only be for fun... take them with a grain of salt for now. The bigger picture is looking at the synoptic pattern and the blocking that is potentially setting up... temperatures will work itself out as that all becomes established.

See no big change from yesterday. First cold front coming in late this weekend/early next week will certainly bring in chillier temperatures for our area. Might flirt with freezing early Sunday and Monday morning but the brunt of it will still be off to the north and east. Series of cold fronts after this one (last week of January into February) is where it looks like the arctic cold builds in western Canada that will give us a better shot of much colder temperatures.

Why does it seem like colder air always goes to the east of us instead of straight south?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:28 am Why does it seem like colder air always goes to the east of us instead of straight south?

cuz that's the way the world spins?

But if you look at the cold air in Canada it is building west...as we get toward the first of Feb and on the cold air should present itself further west up against the Rockies...just my thoughts

Winter is coming, you can quote me on that. It just took 2 weeks longer than I expected.

Now if it snows, who knows, but snow is just icing on top. I like it cold. I was in Chicago last week and it was 16 with a wind chill of -4 and I was just fine in jeans and a long sleeve fishing shirt.

Screw the warmth from wxman57. I’m about to take over for 30-45 days!

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:28 am Why does it seem like colder air always goes to the east of us instead of straight south?

Because the PNA is positive. We need a neutral PNA here in Texas.

The 12Z GFS AND FV3 GFS show some fun stuff for SE Texas and us in south Louisiana around the 24th.

The 12z Euro has lows in the mid to upper 20’s for next Sunday and Monday mornings for southeast TX. It also has highs on Sunday struggling to get out of the 30’s.

TIC TIC TIC BOOM...lol the atmosphere is lining up for a rough 4 six week run maybe longer in regards to averages.

CRASHWX wrote: ↑Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:59 pm TIC TIC TIC BOOM...lol the atmosphere is lining up for a rough 4 six week run maybe longer in regards to averages.

About time! I'm ready for cold weather cuz god knows the hellish summer is right around the corner

I wouldn’t use the ECMWF verbatim. I’ve noticed over the last few weeks that the model is too cool with highs and lows. I do think a pair of freezes is likely next Sunday and Monday mornings but getting into the mid 20s may be tough unless that high settles in right over the top of us.

Up until the 12z run of the gfs, it had the high going well east of us. Now as of 12z it has it just to our southwest. Placement is everything. I’m hedging my bets currently and am going with 30 degrees both Sunday and Monday mornings. Further adjustments will be necessary as we get closer.

With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edit: still shows measurable snow on the ground through hour 384!

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:23 pm With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active...

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

Edit: still shows measurable snow on the ground through hour 384!

Because we’ve seen this song and dance before. Euro is dry through the morning of the 23rd. CMC shows rain at hour 240 but doesn’t go beyond that. Give it a few more days and you’ll see it pick up. There’s absolutely nothing to be excited about at the current time. If snow is still showing up here in 25 more model runs, then I’ll be excited but not before lol