January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead
Happy New to all my forum members,stay safe.
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srainhoutx
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Some changes brewing regarding our sensible weather expected Wednesday into Thursday. Overall the guidance has trended a lot slower with that upper trough that has been teasing wintery mischief across portions of Texas. The slowing trend also suggests a much deeper upper level storm as well as a stronger a very slow moving Coastal Low/trough organizing late Tuesday into Wednesday. That feature may end up even stronger than currently expected. Will need to monitor for a heavy rainfall potential Wednesday into Thursday.
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srainhoutx
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New Years Eve afternoon weather Update from Jeff:
Heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Flooding concerns increasing especially on area rivers that are already running high.
Global models have come into better agreement today with the handling of the next upper level storm system and have increased rainfall amounts a good bit over the region. This storm system looks slower and more organized on the latest model runs than the previous runs and this appears to be causing the increasing rainfall potential. Surface front will move down and across the area later tonight and then stall offshore late Tuesday while warm moist SSW/SW flow aloft rides up and over the surface cold dome which will result in increasing rain chances Tuesday night. Strong forcing begins to arrive on Wednesday and banded rainfall will likely develop from SW to NE over the region. While the surface will remain cold (in the 40’s) the warm air riding over top will become increasing unstable and looks to lead to some thunderstorm formation in bands especially NW of US 59 on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity and WPC has upgraded the area north of I-10 and east of US 59 into a slight risk for excessive rainfall and run-off.
Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common which is nearly double what was being forecasted this morning. Isolated totals of 2-3 inches are not out of the question. Given the potential for convective rains some 1-2 inch per hour totals also appear possible, but think the majority of the rainfall will be light to moderate with embedded heavier storms.
Hydro:
Given the increase in rainfall amounts today on top of completely saturated grounds and already high watersheds…flooding will be possible. In fact much of what falls is going to be converted into run-off. Current rainfall maximum is along and NW of a line from roughly Tomball to Livingston or areas that were hard hit last Thursday morning and across the San Jacinto River basin again. Flood waves in this basin are just passing Lake Houston and both the West and East Forks continue to be highly elevated. Rainfall of this magnitude will almost certainly result in rises to flood stage or above again on the West and East Forks. Additionally, Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, and Willow Creeks continue to move run-off from last week and additional heavy rainfall on these watersheds is going to result in significant rises.
Since model guidance is just starting to show and latch on to this concern…there is some degree of uncertainty as to where and exactly just how much rain will fall as the main axis appears to be just NE of our area.
Heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Flooding concerns increasing especially on area rivers that are already running high.
Global models have come into better agreement today with the handling of the next upper level storm system and have increased rainfall amounts a good bit over the region. This storm system looks slower and more organized on the latest model runs than the previous runs and this appears to be causing the increasing rainfall potential. Surface front will move down and across the area later tonight and then stall offshore late Tuesday while warm moist SSW/SW flow aloft rides up and over the surface cold dome which will result in increasing rain chances Tuesday night. Strong forcing begins to arrive on Wednesday and banded rainfall will likely develop from SW to NE over the region. While the surface will remain cold (in the 40’s) the warm air riding over top will become increasing unstable and looks to lead to some thunderstorm formation in bands especially NW of US 59 on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity and WPC has upgraded the area north of I-10 and east of US 59 into a slight risk for excessive rainfall and run-off.
Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common which is nearly double what was being forecasted this morning. Isolated totals of 2-3 inches are not out of the question. Given the potential for convective rains some 1-2 inch per hour totals also appear possible, but think the majority of the rainfall will be light to moderate with embedded heavier storms.
Hydro:
Given the increase in rainfall amounts today on top of completely saturated grounds and already high watersheds…flooding will be possible. In fact much of what falls is going to be converted into run-off. Current rainfall maximum is along and NW of a line from roughly Tomball to Livingston or areas that were hard hit last Thursday morning and across the San Jacinto River basin again. Flood waves in this basin are just passing Lake Houston and both the West and East Forks continue to be highly elevated. Rainfall of this magnitude will almost certainly result in rises to flood stage or above again on the West and East Forks. Additionally, Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, and Willow Creeks continue to move run-off from last week and additional heavy rainfall on these watersheds is going to result in significant rises.
Since model guidance is just starting to show and latch on to this concern…there is some degree of uncertainty as to where and exactly just how much rain will fall as the main axis appears to be just NE of our area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Happy New Year!
And wow - this may be the thickest fog I’ve ever experienced!
And wow - this may be the thickest fog I’ve ever experienced!
quite the moisture feed from the Pacific https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show
WPC's Discussions https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
Code: Select all
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019
.DISCUSSION...
There is patchy fog (some dense with visibilites as low as 1/4 to
1/2 mile) around parts of the area early this morning. A cold front
will move through the area this morning, and expect to see temperatures
in the 50s/60s this afternoon. Enjoy this dry day because rains are
coming back with a significant increase in coverage expected to begin
mainly tonight after midnight and continuing on through Wednesday,
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Today`s front becomes stationary
off the coast, and overrunning begins to set up later tonight as
precipitable water values begin to rise toward 1.50 inches. These
features in combination with an approaching and slow moving upper
level low to our west supports the potential for possibly locally
heavy rainfall as training sets up. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
(locally higher amounts possible) can be expected for this event,
and due to nearly saturated grounds localized flooding along with
rises in area creeks/rivers/bayous are anticipated. This event
currently looks to come to an end from west to east during the day
on Thursday, and a drier weather pattern will follow for the end
of the week and on through the weekend. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Reinforcing front will push into the waters this morning. Pressure
gradient will tighten w/ a gradual increase in NNE winds expected
through the day. Hoisted the caution flags for the 20-60nm group
this afternoon, but suspect this may need to be upgraded to an
advisory before sunset. Coastal trof will develop on Wednesday
bringing unsettled wx to the waters along w/ moderate winds and
possible caution/advisory conditions continuing. The trof/low will
eventually make its way ne toward the sw La coast on Thurs.
Dependent on the axis track/location, a variety of wind directions
may be observed in the 30-60nm waters as this occurs. Moderate to
strong nw winds in its wake can be expected & will need to monitor
for possible low water advisories as water is transported out of the
bays. Wind/seas will gradually diminish and return to the southeast
later this weekend. 47
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Grounds are saturated and the additional rainfall forecast to fall
Wed-Thurs will likely runoff and create another rise on area rivers
and streams. There is a good possibility we`ll see a number of these
rise back into flood levels during the second half of the week. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of fog will erode this morning as a weak front pushes thru the
area. In the meantime, visibility/ceilings may go LIFR at times. NNE
winds will develop in the wake of the front and increase by
afternoon. Ceilings will begin to lower in the afternoon but
conditions should remain VFR through 00z. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings
possible between 00-06z as moisture levels deepen. Areas of precip
will develop late tonight, with widespread coverage anticipated nw
of Highway 59 before sunrise Wed...then spreading southward across
the remainder of southeast Texas during the day. IFR conditions will
likely prevail. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 42 43 39 49 / 0 70 80 80 50
Houston (IAH) 62 49 50 44 51 / 0 50 70 90 70
Galveston (GLS) 60 53 55 49 54 / 10 50 70 80 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller...
Wharton.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 2 PM CST this afternoon
through this afternoon for the following zones: Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$clipping along - CONUS view, GOES East, Band 13unome wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:44 am quite the moisture feed from the Pacific https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show
looks like GOES-17 Meso-2 will move to 35.5N/101.5W today at 19:00Z, covering part of Texas
https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/goes-r-e ... mds-public
https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/goes-r-e ... mds-public
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srainhoutx
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New Year morning weather Update from Jeff:
Heavy rainfall remains possible starting late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning.
Fog:
A rare combination of factors came together overnight to produce extremely dense fog/smoke and hazardous air quality. Early yesterday evening a nocturnal inversion became established over the region as the surface cooled quickly after sunset which results in a very stable calm layer of air about a few hundred feet thick. Large amounts of particulate were discharged into this stable layer during the evening hours from local fireworks and this particulate led to enhanced condensation nuclei that then resulted in rapid fog formation. Several locations dropped to zero visibility overnight. In addition, the lack of any wind and this stable air layer prevented in mixing of the air mass and the smoke was trapped at the surface all night leading to hazardous air quality. With the sun up and surface mixing in progress…the stable inversion is breaking allowing mixing of the air mass and rapid dissipation of the fog and increasing air quality.
Next Storm System:
A strong upper level low pressure system will dig into the SW US and then eject across TX Wednesday and Thursday with numerous weather impacts across the state. Freezing and frozen precipitation will be common from the TX Hill Country into portions of N TX, while across SE TX widespread rainfall…some heavy is likely. Surface front is moving across the area currently and will move offshore this morning and stall. Water vapor shows a large plume of dense moisture moving NE from the central Pacific toward western MX and eventually TX over the next 8-12 hours. As forcing aloft increasing, surface low pressure will form over the NW Gulf of Mexico resulting in significant amounts of moisture being forced up and over the surface cold dome entrenched over the region. Clouds will rapidly increase later today and showers will begin to develop late tonight into early Wednesday. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall appear to develop over the region by Wednesday afternoon and linger well into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There is some concern with the potential for cell training as being shown by some models with bands of thunderstorms that move SW to NE over the area.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches look likely with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Will focus the highest amounts from the New Caney area NE toward Lake Livingston and then NE into WC LA. PWS do surge toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday which is significant for this time of year and when overspread with strong lift some decent short duration rainfall totals will be possible. Could see a few 1-2 inch per hour rates in the stronger cells especially along the US 59 corridor.
Hydro:
Many watersheds are elevated and flood waves passing through the systems from the heavy rains last week. Grounds are completely saturated and nearly everything that falls will be converted to run-off. Most concern is for the area rivers which are already significantly elevated. The widespread nature of the event will put a lot of water across area river basins and will likely force several into flood stage. There is also concern for the watersheds that respond like a river system: Cypress Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Spring Creek, Cedar Bayou, and the creeks that drain into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. It should also be noted that Conroe, Livingston, and Somerville are all in their flood pools and have little room to hold inflows (except for Somerville as this is a flood control lake). Significant rises are area watersheds will be possible with this event and some may rise to or above flood threshold levels. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in roadway flooding in both rural areas from run-off and urban areas from higher intensity rainfall rates.
Heavy rainfall remains possible starting late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning.
Fog:
A rare combination of factors came together overnight to produce extremely dense fog/smoke and hazardous air quality. Early yesterday evening a nocturnal inversion became established over the region as the surface cooled quickly after sunset which results in a very stable calm layer of air about a few hundred feet thick. Large amounts of particulate were discharged into this stable layer during the evening hours from local fireworks and this particulate led to enhanced condensation nuclei that then resulted in rapid fog formation. Several locations dropped to zero visibility overnight. In addition, the lack of any wind and this stable air layer prevented in mixing of the air mass and the smoke was trapped at the surface all night leading to hazardous air quality. With the sun up and surface mixing in progress…the stable inversion is breaking allowing mixing of the air mass and rapid dissipation of the fog and increasing air quality.
Next Storm System:
A strong upper level low pressure system will dig into the SW US and then eject across TX Wednesday and Thursday with numerous weather impacts across the state. Freezing and frozen precipitation will be common from the TX Hill Country into portions of N TX, while across SE TX widespread rainfall…some heavy is likely. Surface front is moving across the area currently and will move offshore this morning and stall. Water vapor shows a large plume of dense moisture moving NE from the central Pacific toward western MX and eventually TX over the next 8-12 hours. As forcing aloft increasing, surface low pressure will form over the NW Gulf of Mexico resulting in significant amounts of moisture being forced up and over the surface cold dome entrenched over the region. Clouds will rapidly increase later today and showers will begin to develop late tonight into early Wednesday. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall appear to develop over the region by Wednesday afternoon and linger well into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There is some concern with the potential for cell training as being shown by some models with bands of thunderstorms that move SW to NE over the area.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches look likely with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Will focus the highest amounts from the New Caney area NE toward Lake Livingston and then NE into WC LA. PWS do surge toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday which is significant for this time of year and when overspread with strong lift some decent short duration rainfall totals will be possible. Could see a few 1-2 inch per hour rates in the stronger cells especially along the US 59 corridor.
Hydro:
Many watersheds are elevated and flood waves passing through the systems from the heavy rains last week. Grounds are completely saturated and nearly everything that falls will be converted to run-off. Most concern is for the area rivers which are already significantly elevated. The widespread nature of the event will put a lot of water across area river basins and will likely force several into flood stage. There is also concern for the watersheds that respond like a river system: Cypress Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Spring Creek, Cedar Bayou, and the creeks that drain into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. It should also be noted that Conroe, Livingston, and Somerville are all in their flood pools and have little room to hold inflows (except for Somerville as this is a flood control lake). Significant rises are area watersheds will be possible with this event and some may rise to or above flood threshold levels. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in roadway flooding in both rural areas from run-off and urban areas from higher intensity rainfall rates.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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redneckweather
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Let's get this system out of here so we can warm up a for a bit and hopefully dry out. Speaking of warmth, I don't see any real cold getting down here for the next few weeks at the least (most of January)? This so called favorable pattern for wintry precip for us down here is starting to wane.
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Kingwood36
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redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:41 am Let's get this system out of here so we can warm up a for a bit and hopefully dry out. Speaking of warmth, I don't see any real cold getting down here for the next few weeks at the least (most of January)? This so called favorable pattern for wintry precip for us down here is starting to wane.
[/quote
Same old story down this way..I dont care about wintery precip I'd just like a good artic blast for a week
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Kingwood36
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I'd just like a artic blast to blow threw for about a week..if we get wintery precip great if not then oh well..I just want some cold weather before hell sets in againredneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:41 am Let's get this system out of here so we can warm up a for a bit and hopefully dry out. Speaking of warmth, I don't see any real cold getting down here for the next few weeks at the least (most of January)? This so called favorable pattern for wintry precip for us down here is starting to wane.
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Texaspirate11
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Looks like the cold weather is in witness protection for January...haha read that somewhere and it was funny.
Clouds coming off the bay looks to bring some interesting rain around these parts.....
Happy 2019 & heres to a no hurricane summer.
Clouds coming off the bay looks to bring some interesting rain around these parts.....
Happy 2019 & heres to a no hurricane summer.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
I've been saying this for a month now but I just don't see any real winter weather happening this year, not even close. Hope I'm wrong but.....winter lovers don't hate me if I'm right...lol. it's weather....what are you gonna do, right?
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Kingwood36
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CRASHWX
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I feel ya...just thought it was cool stuff to share
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stormlover
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What does euro show for rain totals tomorrow and Thursday
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LightningBolt
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Happy New Year everyone!. I certainly hope that rainfall over the next couple of days is light then followed by a drying trend. The ground here is saturated bordering on squishy!