January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[TexasMetBlake]

FWIW, the 12z Euro now keeps Dallas all rain with the icy mix northwest of the city (albeit not by much). It does give Dallas a brief, and I mean brief, shot at some very light snow on Thursday morning as the low departs.

These models will continue to waffle back and forth over the coming days. We'll just have to continue to watch it.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...this sort of blocking regime doesn't look warm to me. A negative Artic Oscillation with negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a developing cross Polar flow into a deepening trough near mid January. The seems to match well with the long range prognostications I've seen.

[harp]

Hmmm...this sort of blocking regime doesn't look warm to me. A negative Artic Oscillation with negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a developing cross Polar flow into a deepening trough near mid January. The seems to match well with the long range prognostications I've seen.

DvsL0ucX4AAIm-r.jpg

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

[srainhoutx]

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

MJO has been meandering around in Phase 5 versus progressing into Phase 6. All the Global computer schemes missed that including the "so called" King Euro. See tropical activity in the Southern Indian Ocean as well as convection in the tropical West Pacific. Without getting too technical, the models have struggled with the North Pacific pattern and that may continue over the next week. Now add a very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that has been extremely impressive the past 24 hours or so. Now look at volitily we have seen with this weekend and mid week. Mood swings among winter weather lovers as been in overdrive. Remember that Hemispheric and even Global weather patterns do not change on a dime. Heck, we are still waiting on official El Nino to be declared...

[harp]

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

MJO has been meandering around in Phase 5 versus progressing into Phase 6. All the Global computer schemes missed that including the "so called" King Euro. See tropical activity in the Southern Indian Ocean as well as convection in the tropical West Pacific. Without getting too technical, the models have struggled with the North Pacific pattern and that may continue over the next week. Now add a very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that has been extremely impressive the past 24 hours or so. Now look at volitily we have seen with this weekend and mid week. Mood swings among winter weather lovers as been in overdrive. Remember that Hemispheric and even Global weather patterns do not change on a dime. Heck, we are still waiting on official El Nino to be declared...

So, you are not throwing in the towel yet.

[harp]

Was the MJO expected to be progressing into Phase 6/7 by now and hasn't?

[Cpv17]

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

MJO has been meandering around in Phase 5 versus progressing into Phase 6. All the Global computer schemes missed that including the "so called" King Euro. See tropical activity in the Southern Indian Ocean as well as convection in the tropical West Pacific. Without getting too technical, the models have struggled with the North Pacific pattern and that may continue over the next week. Now add a very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that has been extremely impressive the past 24 hours or so. Now look at volitily we have seen with this weekend and mid week. Mood swings among winter weather lovers as been in overdrive. Remember that Hemispheric and even Global weather patterns do not change on a dime. Heck, we are still waiting on official El Nino to be declared...

So, you are not throwing in the towel yet.

A lot of people have been on the mid January train. If that comes to fruition, then we should start seeing it show up on the models within another 10 days or so.

[CRASHWX]

This next week is just the start of a step down of temps. With the strato going nuts I would have think mid month before we see the main event. But I still think we need watch how the temps upstream come in...on the button or bust to warm?

[kyzsl51]

Harp, I never post bit after many years of watching this forum I have to say you win the award of most annoying poster of all time! Cheers!

[harp]

Harp, I never post bit after many years of watching this forum I have to say you win the award of most annoying poster of all time! Cheers!

Excuse me? Would you care to explain? I am here to learn. If you find me irritating then don't read my posts.

If you are ever in the New Orleans area, come see my band, Cold Shot. I'd be happy to buy you a beer.

You may now resume radio silence.....:

[kyzsl51]

Nothing wrong with learning! And thank you for that offer!

[harp]

Nothing wrong with learning! And thank you for that offer!

You never explained why you find me annoying.

[LightningBolt]

Well, then...how about them _________ (insert your favorite team)!!!!

[srainhoutx]

New Years Eve weather briefing from Jeff:

As one system moves east…yet another upper level storm is already approaching the SW US…this system will make for a wet and cold start to 2019

Upper level system that produced the light rain on Sunday is moving east of the area and a drying westerly wind will be increasing later this morning helping to scour out remaining moisture and cloud cover. Incoming air mass is “dry” but not overly cold, so temperatures this evening will be in the 50’s for most locations under mostly clear skies.

NYD will feature a cold start with lows in the 40’s and increasing NW winds as a stronger cold front surges off the coast. Skies will start out mostly sunny with increasing clouds by midday and cloudy by evening as the next storm system begins to approach from the SW US. Recent model trends have slowed this next storm system and increased rainfall potential while also warming low level temperatures some. Fairly confident that everything will remain liquid over SE TX throughout the duration of this event. Will continue to keep a close eye on the surface temperatures at College Station on Thursday morning, but significant warm air advection above the surface would result in fairly “warm” rain falling into a cold very shallow surface layer and latest temperature forecast do not support freezing surface temperatures.

It will be wet as 2019 starts off the way 2018 ended. Surface cold dome will entrench Tuesday and then become overrun by SSW/SW winds aloft allowing moisture to be gently lifted vertically over the surface cold pool. The result will be clouds, fog, and rain from late Tuesday into much of Thursday. Surface NNE winds will continue to drain cold air southward during this time and temperatures on Wednesday will likely hold in the 38-45 range over much of the area with similar temperatures on Thursday.

Latest guidance is a little more bullish with rainfall amounts likely due to the longer duration of light rain and showers. Widespread amounts of .25-.75 of an inch area likely with isolated totals upwards of 1.5 inches. Soils are beyond soggy and nearly all this will be converted into run-off. Good news is that this rainfall will be spread out over time so no big increases on area watersheds.

Storm system should move eastward late Thursday with a dry NW flow aloft developing over TX for the first time in weeks. This should end the series of storms from the SW into the southern plains allowing a drying and warming trend. In fact temperatures this weekend will likely reach the 70’s under mostly clear skies.

[Andrew]

Unfortunately, looks like the majority of the winter weather will stay well north of here during the middle of the week as the upper level low does not dip far enough south. We should still see plenty of light rain showers with some models showing 1-2 inches accumulating across the region.

A couple of questions have been mentioned on here (and I apologize for being away) regarding the MJO and sudden stratospheric warming event. The MJO does obviously have an impact on weather across the United States, but for us across the Central United States the impact is usually more conclusive of warmer weather than anything else. The maps I have below show significance levels (right panels) and temperatures (left) for each phase of the MJO. Lower significance equates to higher confidence of correlation between the MJO and temps. As you can see correlation starts to break down in colder phases but is well documented with warmer temperatures. While obviously that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, it's just not as defining of an impact as sometimes advertised.

Here is a link to more information for anyone who is interested about the graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... adme.shtml


The other thing to keep an eye on is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Once again while the impacts can be felt locally, a lot of times you see more impacts across Europe and the East Coast of the United States. With that said, models do show a favorable positioning for the United States and impacts could be felt locally, but a lag of these impacts usually occurs days-weeks after the event happens. We will have to continue to monitor this as we go into the middle of the month.

Overall though don't latch onto one model run too much right now. The environment is in more of a meridional flow currently and that often translates into large declines in model accuracy and precision. Just look at the MJO forecast between the GFS and ECMWF over the past several days as they have very different result.

Finally, I noticed the conversation here has become a little aggressive. While we support open conversation and try not to intervene, we do not support harassment of any kind. We like to keep this board as an open and welcoming place for people of all knowledge to discuss weather. It's an important resource for many people and we will continue to monitor over the coming days and take the necessary action if needed to make sure the discussion remains civil and constructive.

[harp]

Unfortunately, looks like the majority of the winter weather will stay well north of here during the middle of the week as the upper level low does not dip far enough south. We should still see plenty of light rain showers with some models showing 1-2 inches accumulating across the region.

A couple of questions have been mentioned on here (and I apologize for being away) regarding the MJO and sudden stratospheric warming event. The MJO does obviously have an impact on weather across the United States, but for us across the Central United States the impact is usually more conclusive of warmer weather than anything else. The maps I have below show significance levels (right panels) and temperatures (left) for each phase of the MJO. Lower significance equates to higher confidence of correlation between the MJO and temps. As you can see correlation starts to break down in colder phases but is well documented with warmer temperatures. While obviously that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, it's just not as defining of an impact as sometimes advertised.


combined_image (1).png


Here is a link to more information for anyone who is interested about the graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... adme.shtml


The other thing to keep an eye on is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Once again while the impacts can be felt locally, a lot of times you see more impacts across Europe and the East Coast of the United States. With that said, models do show a favorable positioning for the United States and impacts could be felt locally, but a lag of these impacts usually occurs days-weeks after the event happens. We will have to continue to monitor this as we go into the middle of the month.


epsmean10hPa60N (2).png


Overall though don't latch onto one model run too much right now. The environment is in more of a meridional flow currently and that often translates into large declines in model accuracy and precision. Just look at the MJO forecast between the GFS and ECMWF over the past several days as they have very different result.

Finally, I noticed the conversation here has become a little aggressive. While we support open conversation and try not to intervene, we do not support harassment of any kind. We like to keep this board as an open and welcoming place for people of all knowledge to discuss weather. It's an important resource for many people and we will continue to monitor over the coming days and take the necessary action if needed to make sure the discussion remains civil and constructive.

Andrew, I'm sure you are referring to the gentleman who referred to my posts as annoying. I explained that I ask questions in an effort to learn as much as I can from the experts. If my questions are annoying, I apologize for that. It just kind of caught me off guard. I have followed the weather since I was a teen and am now 61 years old. I didn't mean to stir up any controversy.

[kyzsl51]

Harp I would like to apologize to you. My comments were tongue and cheek and were not appropriate.

[Andrew]

Unfortunately, looks like the majority of the winter weather will stay well north of here during the middle of the week as the upper level low does not dip far enough south. We should still see plenty of light rain showers with some models showing 1-2 inches accumulating across the region.

A couple of questions have been mentioned on here (and I apologize for being away) regarding the MJO and sudden stratospheric warming event. The MJO does obviously have an impact on weather across the United States, but for us across the Central United States the impact is usually more conclusive of warmer weather than anything else. The maps I have below show significance levels (right panels) and temperatures (left) for each phase of the MJO. Lower significance equates to higher confidence of correlation between the MJO and temps. As you can see correlation starts to break down in colder phases but is well documented with warmer temperatures. While obviously that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, it's just not as defining of an impact as sometimes advertised.


combined_image (1).png


Here is a link to more information for anyone who is interested about the graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... adme.shtml


The other thing to keep an eye on is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Once again while the impacts can be felt locally, a lot of times you see more impacts across Europe and the East Coast of the United States. With that said, models do show a favorable positioning for the United States and impacts could be felt locally, but a lag of these impacts usually occurs days-weeks after the event happens. We will have to continue to monitor this as we go into the middle of the month.


epsmean10hPa60N (2).png


Overall though don't latch onto one model run too much right now. The environment is in more of a meridional flow currently and that often translates into large declines in model accuracy and precision. Just look at the MJO forecast between the GFS and ECMWF over the past several days as they have very different result.

Finally, I noticed the conversation here has become a little aggressive. While we support open conversation and try not to intervene, we do not support harassment of any kind. We like to keep this board as an open and welcoming place for people of all knowledge to discuss weather. It's an important resource for many people and we will continue to monitor over the coming days and take the necessary action if needed to make sure the discussion remains civil and constructive.

Andrew, I'm sure you are referring to the gentleman who referred to my posts as annoying. I explained that I ask questions in an effort to learn as much as I can from the experts. If my questions are annoying, I apologize for that. It just kind of caught me off guard. I have followed the weather since I was a teen and am now 61 years old. I didn't mean to stir up any controversy.

Just a general warning for everyone. Conversation in general has gotten a little heated so just thought I would throw out that reminder. We welcome all questions here on the site and I enjoy answering what I can. We have very knowledgable and welcoming people here who enjoy helping so why not take advantage of it. Like I said though, not calling anyone out just putting the reminder out there. Hope everyone has a happy new year! Be safe out there.

[CRASHWX]

We can all have a great big group hug! BUT AM NOT SHARING MY BUD LIGHT! Happy New Year Y’all! Here is to some cold inconvient icy weather for 2019!

[harp]

Love the info on here. Very educational. I will continue to read and follow this forum!