October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

[ticka1]

After the events of the solar eclipse -hurricane harvey and his flood. Along with hurricane Irma and Maria - we need a little cooler relaxing weather.

[Ptarmigan]

Some very intense hurricanes have formed in October. This occurs in Western Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the warm water is deep.

[tireman4]

Normal Highs and Lows for October...

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_oct

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 - 14 Outlook suggests typically what we experience as October begins. The CPC Experimental Week 3 and 4 look much the same.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That map temp wise looks like an El Niño map more so than a borderline Niña

[srainhoutx]

Still no sign of that first legitimate Fall Cold Front or Blue Norther on the horizon. There are growing indications that a Western Caribbean/Central America/Eastern Pacific Monsoonal Gyre or trough starts organizing later next week. Within this large area of lower pressures we may see tropical disturbances attempt to organize in the Western Atlantic Basin as well as the Eastern Pacific. October brings a second Peak of the Hurricane Season and it is not uncommon to see Eastern Pacific Storms head NE into Mexico and Western Caribbean Storms ride up to near the Yucatan Peninsula and generally turn E to NE...but that is typical. While it is too soon to give the all clear for Texas and Louisiana for Hurricane season 2017, we are quickly headed toward that early to mid October timeframe when we can usually say our Region is safe from any further tropical mischief.

[snowman65]

Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me Thanks!

[DoctorMu]

Just curious but I have a trip to Nashville Oct 14-17. Anyone care to chime on Possible temps there for me Thanks!

October in Tennessee or the Carolinas could yield a high risk of Chamber of Commerce weather. You might see a leaf or two changing color.

Enjoy.

[srainhoutx]

Confidence slowly increasing that a favorable Hemispheric Patten develops conducive for Tropical Development in the Eastern Pacific early next week then shifting into the Western Caribbean as we near the second week of October. Will need to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche that is festering this morning. Our 'cool front' washes out by Sunday and a return flow off the Gulf begins in earnest. The deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to 'sniff out' a potential for tropical cyclone genesis associated with a very large Central America Monsoonal Trough. This large area of lowering pressure may support several areas of vorticity capable of organizing enough to be classified at the least into a Tropical Depression.

[snowman65]

Looks like this weekends cool front is losing its punch. Not surprising for a September front, but it's a start.

[mcheer23]

I need cold weather. That. Is. All.

[BiggieSmalls]

Yep, this so called "front" has turned from an actual story (4-5 days ago) to "oh good, upper 80s instead of low 90s!"

Lame even by September in Texas standards

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Our avg high in Late September is 88

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I noticed NOAA "upgraded" our weekend highs. At least it will be a little drier - it's the dew point above 70°F that really gets old. Some years summer just drags on and on.

Humidity returns on Monday. We may not get real relief until about the 10th of the month.

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous this afternoon and evening with some locally heavy rains possible. Slightly cooler and drier air will begin to filter into SE TXFriday resulting in a nice weekend.

[snowman65]

Yep, this so called "front" has turned from an actual story (4-5 days ago) to "oh good, upper 80s instead of low 90s!"

Lame even by September in Texas standards

True. It isn't news anymore...lol...it's gone. I would call a 3 degree change in the high a front. ...so we wait....

[snowman65]

What is this I keep seeing about possible tropical mischief in the southern gulf around Oct 6/7?

[srainhoutx]

It's Good News Friday! I am finally seeing signs via the reliable ECMWF EPS and GEFS Ensemble guidance in the longer range that a deep Central North American trough develops across Canada and the Great Plains. Fingers crossed that just before mid October we may see our first legitimate Fall Cold Front.

[cperk]

It's Good News Friday! I am finally seeing signs via the reliable ECMWF EPS and GEFS Ensemble guidance in the longer range that a deep Central North American trough develops across Canada and the Great Plains. Fingers crossed that just before mid October we may see our first legitimate Fall Cold Front.

Some of the best news i have had all day.

[srainhoutx]

The cooler and drier mornings this weekend have been enjoyable. Moisture begins to creep in from the East along the Gulf Coast and PW's appear to max out near 2.5 inches Tuesday. Showers and storm look to be on the increase Monday afternoon through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning when rain chances decrease as the end of the work week ends.

MIMIC suggests those higher moisture values are headed our way from the NE Gulf as well as increased moisture values spreading NW from the NW Caribbean and Southern/SW Gulf. The latest GFS suggests a general .5 to 1 inch amounts with some isolated higher totals possible across our Coastal tier of Counties into the Matagorda Bay Region.