September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[ticka1]

Starting topic for September and Labor Day weekend fast approaching.

[texoz]

Cool front next week??? Hoping we can start talking about something else besides Harvey soon!

At least it appears no strong heat returning, which is good news for everyone in SE Texas as they try to recover.

[srainhoutx]

I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Absolutely loving that I don't see 90 degrees in my 10 day forecast right now

[Ptarmigan]

I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.

I hope that is wrong and very wrong.

[Katdaddy]

Words hardly express this event. Epic and unreal. I can't imagine another tropical threat for SE TX but this is the time of year.

[cisa]

If it verifies, it is going to be so hard for the Pro Met to have to deliver that news. I could see it in David Paul's eyes tonight. But to all you guys. How do the condition look for this?

[srainhoutx]

As of this morning things appeared to be much weaker than what we saw yesterday. That said there does appear to be a surge of deeper Gulf moisture surging toward the Texas Coast. That should increase our rain chances early to mid next week.

[cperk]

[quote="srainhoutx"]I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall

[cperk]

I am hesitant to bring this up while we still in search and recue mode as well as River Flooding coming downstream, but I would be derelict of my duties if I did not at least let folks know we may have yet another potential Tropical Troublemaker to monitor. The images below are our most reliable deterministic Global Models. The image are valid for hour 168 which is next Tuesday. The GFS suggest a weaker wave or inverted trough nearing S Texas while the ECMWF is slightly stronger with a disturbance approaching Coastal Texas. Let's just monitor today and see if the guidance remains consistent over the next 24 to 48 hours. We have too much suffering going now and certainly do not need any additional rainfall.

As the voice of this forum I support your decision to inform us about this and absolutely trust your judgement on these matters.

[Scott747]

12z gfs is MUCH stronger.

Intensifying hurricane e of Corpus moving nne.

[Scott747]

Begins turning more towards the ne and e as it nears the upper texas coast., and then rides the Louisiana coastline.

[mcheer23]

12z GFS is just not what the gulf wants

[srainhoutx]

08302017 2 PM EDT two_atl_5d1.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over southwestern Louisiana and on newly
formed Tropical Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from the WPC for Days 6-7...let's hope and pray that heaviest rainfall projections remain well offshore.

[Scott747]

And just like that the 12z euro and 18z gfs do a 180 and keep whatever becomes of this potential disturbance buried down in the BoC.

[srainhoutx]

Thankfully this morning there is a ray of hope regarding the potential Western Gulf potential Tropical Disturbance. It appears as of this morning the a cool front may push far enough offshore to help keep the heaviest rainfall over the Coastal Waters versus inland where we do not need anymore rain. Fingers crossed this medium range forecast holds.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Harvey, located over northern Louisiana.

1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[srainhoutx]

We have a Topic in our Hurricane Central Area for Hurricane Irma. If it should pose a threat to the Gulf as the longer ECMWF suggests, that Topic will be moved to the Main Page. Here is the link and post away!

http://forums.khou.com/posting.php?mode ... 79&p=70344

[DoctorMu]

After Tuesday we could be sunny, cooler, and drier for a week - fingers crossed.