I wanted to start a Q & A string regarding our day-to-day forecasting operations at KHOU-TV. Many haven't been to the studio, or have more than an impression of what we do behind the scenes. In a typical day, we'll prepare the forecast for several hours, produce the graphics to tell the weather story on TV, and then get ready for our 2 or 3 minutes of presentation time. When we're not getting ready for the broadcast, we prepare info on social media and khou.com
Often on these forums, forecast discussions from the National Weather Service and private meteorologists are cited as source for various forecast 'allegations'.
Like those aforementioned entities -- but entirely independent from them -- we at KHOU-TV carefully explore global, regional and meso-scale weather models while at the same time exchanging ideas in our own knowledge-base here, within the weather center, to formulate our own -- often unique -- weather forecast. Also, we never knee-jerk conform to "climo" in our forecasts. [Climatology is what "normally" happens during a specific time of year. If it's climatologically "72º" in March, but cold air is actively spilling south and it'll clearly be in the 50s, some forecasters will lean toward climo anyway, instead of going for the colder solution because it's thought that statistically this can lead to closer forecast verification if those forecasts are averaged over a period of months or years. Thus, "leaning toward climo" can lead to big forecast busts in the short-term. Believe it or not, some (very) major weather organizations actually require their meteorologists to lean toward climo after a certain period (usually after 4 days) as they're judged by their verification over the long-term and statically after day 4, "climo" will verify more often than actually making an extended forecast based on the reality of what is coming your way. In those cases, it's all tracked on a neat Excel spreadsheet -- over the months or years. The first three or four days are generally accurate, but then the last three days (days 5, 6 and 7) are climo, which more likely verifies better when averaged over months of years of forecasts, while in reality it may result in long-range busts over the short term. At that point it's less of "weather forecasting" and more of a math game so we don't do it.
Our weather outlook will often line up with that of the National Weather Service as well as other unaffiliated, private meteorologists, but often times (especially in the long-range), our forecasts deviate from what may be considered consensus. It is my feeling that many times our general "hunch" (which some may consider going out on a limb at times), turns out to be correct. Sometimes we miss, but we try not to.
We also never consider anyone else's forecast until we have come up with our own and have a solid defense for our logic internally. Only then will we consider other outside opinions, and tweak as we may see fit -- in the instance that a 3rd party "sees" something we may not, et cetera. Because of this, many 3rd parties look to KHOU-TV's forecast both on TV and online to tweak their forecasts.
While there's a certain partnership in that, I feel it's important to clear up any misconception that any other "source" of weather forecasting information is ever used in lieu of our own.
I just wanted to give you a glimpse and offer to answer any questions you may have.
Here's to an accurate forecast for ALL of our sakes!!
-Brooks
