Hurricane Rafael: Eastern Caribbean

[srainhoutx]

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invest_al982012.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34,

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IN A BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
FLYING AT 5000 FT WERE 40 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE BETWEEN 35-40
KT...THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER VALUES COULD BE RAIN
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 35 KT.

RAFAEL APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...
WITH THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION STILL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
320/08. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SLOWLY POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. BETWEEN
36-72 HOURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS RAFAEL JOGGING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. BY DAY 3...A COMPLEX
BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE
RAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. WHILE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL. ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS
A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF RAFAEL THAT IS CAPTURED BY THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE WEAKER VERSIONS OF THE STORM THAT ARE STEERED MORE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A RESULT OF SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAFAEL IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHEARS OUT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION FOR A DAY OR TWO...THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS
ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO PRECLUDE MUCH
STRENGTHENING. REGARDLESS OF THAT...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THAT TIME.
DESPITE THIS...HWRF...GFDL...AND SHIPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RAFAEL REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED AT
DAY 5 IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 22.2N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 26.4N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 35.8N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[unome]

he's been a cane for a while now & may have reached his peak

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#RAFAEL


000
WTNT32 KNHC 161749
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE