Tropical Storm Kirk: Racing NE Across The N Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

We may well see Hurricane Kirk here shortly...

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2012 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST. KIRK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIRK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

Latest image of Kirk.


Looks like Kirk could be a major hurricane already.