Re: 94L: In The Central Atlantic
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:38 am
12Z Tracks & Intensity:
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.
kellybell4770 wrote:I know it is way too soon to predict too far out however, are they thinking that this storm will continue back out into the Atlantic after it crosses Florida or do they think it could swing around into the Gulf?
srainhoutx wrote:HPC Update:
PRELIMINARY UPDATE...
USED THE 00Z/21 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN SHARED MORE IN
COMMON WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN THE GEFS
MEAN...THE SAID DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH SPREAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT TRUST THEIR DETAILS. EXTRAPOLATED THE
09Z/21 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR THE DEPICTION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DAYS 6 AND 7. WILL REFINE THE TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDAY COORDINATION CALL.
9 days out I'm not so sure that anyone other than those folks in the Caribbean Islands need to be 'nevrous' about this potential threat. As we saw with Ike, things will change as time goes on...unome wrote:look at day 7 in the loop (other images are not updated as of yet) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
I'll bet Tampa's getting nervous...