Beryl - Post Tropical

[rnmm]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

[unome]

I like the mapping upgrades this site has done http://hurricanecity.com/ , especially the best-performing models feature

the owner of tropicalatlantic.com works with this site (the one who does the live recon mapping) & his site also backs up on HurricaneCity (http://hurricanecity.com/models/ )

the latest Tropical Update video explains how to use the map a bit better & discusses 94L, which is a potential rainmaker for south FL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWXnn7Eg ... e=youtu.be

Miami NWS on this:

...SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOODING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WITH A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AS
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLOODING CONDITIONS DUE TO THE VERY SATURATED GROUNDS.

[gocuse22]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdl36Vm-q6s

[singlemom]

GFS has backed off the 12Z run yesterday and Florida excitement. I sense a dud.

SHIPs agrees. ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12052 ... _ships.txt

Hooray!!! The kiddo and his friends (and the parents) are leaving for a surprise trip to Disney World on June 9th. ("Ssssssh!") We would really prefer it not to storm while we're there.

[rnmm]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN

[gocuse22]

Special TWO up to 20 percent....first 2 named storms possibly could be in the same area.....

[Ptarmigan]

Special TWO up to 20 percent....first 2 named storms possibly could be in the same area.....

If that is the case, the Carolina coast has seen two early blooming storms.

[gocuse22]

Special TWO up to 20 percent....first 2 named storms possibly could be in the same area.....

If that is the case, the Carolina coast has seen two early blooming storms.

East Coast year..?

[gocuse22]

Code Orange 40%
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests wxman57 may have to work this weekend...

[unome]

HWRF is nailing the track

love the new mapping/best models feature http://hurricanecity.com/

great teamwork on this site

[gocuse22]

I expect to have a Videocast update on my website tomorrow either between 1-3pm, or 7-9 pm.

As of now I think 94L has about a 30-40 percent chance of developing the next 48 hours
Potential track will take it somewhere around the northern Florida to south carolina coast.

[rnmm]

Code Red-60%

TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[gocuse22]

NHC says 60 percent ...personally id go with 40 still

[rnmm]

94L up to 70% this morning:

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

[gocuse22]

Right now I'd go with 50 percent chance of development next 48 hours, Center may form a little north of where expected

[srainhoutx]

Chances of anything other than a potential rain maker seem rather slim with 94L. It does appear multiple vorts are still embedded along the old boundary. We may need to watch along the NC Coast off Cape Hatteras for some potential spin up on Sunday. We will see.

[gocuse22]

94L seems to be getting its self together now, we should see a better looking system later.

[gocuse22]

We will have Beryl within the next 12 hours.