Wx Infinity Forums

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

JackCruz wrote:I'll still accept the cold..even if we end up snowless....after all it is winter.

No, it ruins severe season. If there is any cap at all, air moving from the Southern Gulf with upper 60s dewpoints forms low clouds over cool shelf waters, and doesn't allow for insolation that would allow the cap to be broken.


A happy Spring is aided by a normal to above normal NW Gulf SST.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8gosst.png

As long as we have a wet, but not so cold winter, I am fine with it. Also, a dry spring does not bode well with a dry and hot summer. We don't want that again.

Take a look at the 00z Euro! wow:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

A week ago, the Euro was forecasting widespread freezing conditions from TX to FL today/tomorrow. The problem has been a lack of cold air in western Canada. Current Euro is forecasting a freeze down to the Gulf Coast early next week (again), but at the same time it's forecasting temps in western and central Canada to be 20-35 deg above normal. The current Euro is slowly trending closer to the GFS/Canadian, so there's a good chance it's 5-8 deg too cold for temps down south next week.

The 12Z Canadian and Euro trended a bit W today and the GFS doesn't show any full/mid latitude trough. My hunch is there will be multiple solutions this week before guidance latches onto a solution that may not be all that different from what we saw this past weekend across Texas. We will see.

What wxman and srain are trying to say is, our chances of wintry mischief for the rest of the winter time are ZERO. It's time to start prepping those spring time gardens!

12Z Euro indicates cold air moving south next week but definitely NOT an Arctic outbreak. The flow is off the Gulf of Alaska into British Columbia then southward into the U.S. I'm looking at the surface temperature anomaly maps and it's forecasting temps 20F-30F above normal in western Canada through next week. It develops the high center over the U.S., it doesn't bring any really cold air down from the Arctic. Checking its projected surface temps, it's only forecasting a low of around 30F in Houston for next Wednesday (mid to upper 20s in Dallas) as the coldest morning. Certainly nothing out of the ordinary and not too different from what it forecast for Texas temps a week ago valid today/tomorrow. It was too cold on that forecast and it may be too cold for next week.

In contrast, GFS has low temps in the mid 50s along the upper TX coast for next Wed, about 20 deg warmer. There's definitely a difference between the two, but there's no Arctic air involved.

No, winter is not over (unfortunately - I'm ready for 100F highs again!). Our best shot at winter precip is generally in February. But with a lack of cold air in western Canada presently (and forecast) it may be hard to get much really cold air down here over the next 2-3 weeks. I do think that we have a fair shot at an ice storm across the Southern Plains (including NE TX) from late January through February if we can get a little bit of a snow pack over the Central Plains by then.

It also looks "fishy" that the 12Z Euro forecasts 850mb (5000ft) temps down to -13C next Tuesday afternoon with a temp near 40 for the high and a low of only 29-30 at IAH on Wednesday of next week.

So we have the Euro/Canadian ~vs~ GFS/UKMET. The Euro scores #1 @ 500mb and the UKMET #2. We have many runs to go before we'll see which solution is correct...

srainhoutx wrote:So we have the Euro/Canadian ~vs~ GFS/UKMET. The Euro scores #1 @ 500mb and the UKMET #2. We have many runs to go before we'll see which solution is correct...

Yes, it's a big battle now. I'm pulling for the GFS, which is a good 20F warmer than the Euro for next week.

Unfortunately, it appears the GFS is quite the outlier...

Damn. Imagine if this actually happens.

Yeah, what if the GFS was right? Since it's probably wrong about this weekend and next week's pattern, I'm not inclined to believe it corrected itself 2 weeks out.

Hahaha, they have New Orleans, LA at 29 degrees for the HIGH on January 8th, 2012. When I checked Houston, they have 43 degrees. Can't rely on this website hardly worth anything, just thought it was fairly interesting. At least some models are trying to pick up on something. If you also look on the previous day, the high is 70 degrees. So that's a 41 degree drop. Now THAT, would be an Arctic Blast. However, a quick warm-up would look to happen after the 'arctic blast'.

NOTE: http://www.myforecast.com has new updates every 6 hours. (What I'm saying now is as of 12:22am Dec. 28th). The new update will be at 6:22am and again at 12:22pm. Take with whatever is beyond 5 days out with a grain of salt.
http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false


Hope everyone has a wonderful New Years with what could be a maybe, another interesting winter around the Houston area once again.

Sunday's cold front is coming into better focus now. The 00Z Euro has made a major shift toward less cold air. Yesterday's 12Z Euro had 850mb temps down to -13C along the upper TX coast next Tue/Wed. Last night's run bumped those 850mb temps up to +1C to +2C along the upper TX coast, which is MUCH more reasonable given the Euro's 12Z Tuesday prediction of only a light freeze in that region next Tue-Thu. Given that the source region of the cold air is in southwestern Canada where temps are currently 20-30F above normal, the 00Z Euro is much more believable. Most likely a few light freezes along the upper TX coast next week.

As the Euro trends warmer, the GFS is trending colder for Sunday's front, and it's also backed off on the "12Z oozer" in favor of a stronger front arriving later on Sunday (18Z). Not as late as the Euro (21Z Sun)/Canadian (06Z Mon), but later than yesterday's runs. It forecasts lows in SE TX down to the upper 30s next week. That's probably still too warm, as I think we have a good shot of a Gulf Coast freeze out of this. Nothing colder than we've already seen, just typical January cold.

So it looks like a moderately strong cold front moving through Texas on Sunday, reaching the coast Sunday late afternoon/evening. No bitter cold, as the source region is not that cold. No post-frontal precip, just gusty northerly winds in its wake.

In addition, the Euro has completely backed off on its prediction (from 12Z yesterday) of a major East Coast storm next week in favor of a more progressive upper trof and no storm. This is in line with the Canadian and GFS.

The next week 'cold snap' looks eerily similar to what we have seen already this season. One point that can add to the model mayhem is the current MJO and Indian Ocean convection as well as mountain torque activity that has be showing up in guidance. I suspect when all is said and done, temps similar to the 26F we saw earlier in December (NW Harris County) will be the outcome. I also suspect that guidance will waffle the next several days before honing in on a solution that will lead to our sensible weather for next week.

12Z GFS is a little colder than previous runs. It has the 35F contour across Houston next Tuesday morning as the coldest day. No big deal there, but I suspect at least a light freeze is in order next Tue/Wed. Upper 20s in northern parts of Houston and down to 26-27 in Conroe. Conroe was at 30 this morning, so not that much colder than today.

For the cold weather lover, this is a pattern that would support bringing very cold air into the Lower 48 and much colder temps in NW Canada. To bad it is hour 384 on the 12Z GFS...

Yeah, too bad...

Just perhaps there are some changes brewing via the long range Euro...

I like that spaghetti plot of the GFS ensembles, Ed. Seems the GFS has a real good handle on things...NOT!

I've been monitoring the Euro's predicted 850mb and surface temps for next week. Here's a breakdown of the last 3 runs:

12Z Tue: 850mb temp -13C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next Wed of 29-30F
00Z Wed: 850mb temp +1C to +2C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next wed of 30F
12Z Wed: 850mb temp +6C over Houston next Tue/Wed with min surface temp 35F

Trend is definitely warmer. Main reason I see is the general lack of cold air in the source region and a U.S. snowfall map that shows little or no coverage from Texas to the Canadian border.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... scover.gif

What does it all mean as far as next week across Texas? Just a moderate/seasonal cold front moving through Sunday afternoon bringing a possible light freeze to near the coast. No post frontal precip and little, if any, pre-frontal rain.

Is it me, or has most of the country more or less missed out on Winter so far? Texas has actually had average to below average temps....but all in all, it seems like there have been 0 snow storms or severe cold outbreaks in the traditionally cold places.

I know 0 about what is forecast over the rest of the winter, but my gut tells me parts of the country will be hit like a ton of bricks in mid-late January, and the real winter will start around then.

Chicago and NY don't get lucky enough to skip out on winter weather forever, just like we don't get lucky enough to skip out on 100s and humidity in the summer.