Christmas Forecast for Houston

[wxman57]

It's quite a long ways out, right at the end of the latest run of the GFS, but there are some early indications of what we might expect weather-wise. All models are in pretty good agreement that the current relatively zonal flow (west to east) will continue for at least the next 10 days, and quite possibly right up to Christmas. Such a flow pattern would not be conducive to any significant snow events in the Central or Southern Plains prior to Christmas, which means our chances of a white Christmas anywhere in Texas, much less Houston, look rather slim. Those looking for a white Christmas may have to either travel to the mountains or north to Montana/N. Dakota.

12Z GFS is suggesting a rather warm Christmas Eve, with temps into the mid 70s. Maybe upper 50s to mid 70s on Christmas? I do see signs of a cold front on that 384hr panel that could pass Houston by the 25th, but I really don't trust the GFS beyond about 5 days, so the exact Christmas Day weather is just a guess this far out. I just don't see any indications of any significant outbreak of Canadian air in the next few weeks. I do see a few signals that the zonal flow might be buckling around Christmas, meaning some cold Canadian air may be spilling southward the 4th week of December.

[srainhoutx]

Seasons Greetings from NOAA. I believe this is from the GFS...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yGJbkQulQw

[Ptarmigan]

Anything can change from now to Christmas.

[wxman57]

Every GFS run has a different solution for Christmas weather. Therefore, for now I'll predict somewhere between very cold and quite warm and either dry or rainy.

[Ptarmigan]

Christmas Day Weather form 1921-2010

Houston 1921-1968

Code: Select all

Year	High	Low	Average	Rainfall
1921	53	31	42	0
1922	75	51	63	0
1923	59	48	53.5	0
1924	37	27	32	0
1925	59	45	52	T
1926	48	33	40.5	0.28
1927	56	43	49.5	0.01
1928	58	43	50.5	0
1929	69	41	55	0
1930	58	46	52	1.31
1931	70	53	61.5	0
1932	68	50	59	0
1933	74	59	66.5	0
1934	78	64	71	T
1935	57	43	50	T
1936	72	58	65	0
1937	75	61	68	0
1938	51	46	48.5	1.42
1939	45	41	43	1.81
1940	70	54	62	0.48
1941	67	52	59.5	0.46
1942	79	67	73	0
1943	38	35	36.5	0.01
1944	77	65	71	0.29
1945	62	46	54	0
1946	73	50	61.5	0
1947	51	34	42.5	0
1948	64	41	52.5	0
1949	65	46	55.5	T
1950	74	53	63.5	0
1951	75	61	68	0.13
1952	54	42	48	0
1953	55	33	44	0
1954	70	57	63.5	T
1955	79	63	71	0
1956	61	41	51	0
1957	67	53	60	0.32
1958	54	42	48	0.05
1959	63	54	58.5	T
1960	65	47	56	0
1961	63	42	52.5	0
1962	57	48	52.5	0.04
1963	70	45	57.5	0
1964	82	59	70.5	0
1965	57	40	48.5	0
1966	48	40	44	0.13
1967	64	48	56	0
1968	66	48	57	0

Bush Intercontinental Airport 1969-2010

Code: Select all

Year	High	Low	Average	Rainfall
1969	69	41	55	0
1970	65	39	52	0
1971	73	59	66	0
1972	66	34	50	0
1973	51	45	48	T
1974	51	43	47	0.12
1975	46	35	40.5	T
1976	61	45	53	0.59
1977	59	39	49	0
1978	66	30	48	0
1979	70	33	51.5	0
1980	50	30	40	0
1981	56	33	44.5	0
1982	74	51	62.5	1.64
1983	28	11	19.5	0
1984	64	49	56.5	0.01
1985	45	29	37	0
1986	68	41	54.5	0
1987	78	51	64.5	0.04
1988	65	50	57.5	T
1989	61	20	40.5	0
1990	44	26	35	0
1991	56	37	46.5	0
1992	62	51	56.5	T
1993	64	33	48.5	0
1994	64	34	49	0
1995	60	42	51	0
1996	59	32	45.5	0
1997	59	38	48.5	0
1998	41	31	36	0
1999	58	36	47	0
2000	57	48	52.5	T
2001	54	33	43.5	0
2002	50	32	41	0
2003	61	43	52	T
2004	49	32	40.5	0
2005	69	44	56.5	0
2006	53	39	46	0.01
2007	62	33	47.5	0
2008	74	60	67	0
2009	49	32	40.5	0
2010   46   37   41.5   T

[wxman57]

Still too far out for any confidence in a forecast. However, models are indicating gradually warming temps after the 21st leading up to Christmas.

[wxman57]

Lots of uncertainty remains, but I don't see any really cold air for the week leading up to Christmas. A bit above normal temps. Maybe a weak cold front near Christmas that might drop lows into the 40s.

[wxman57]

Models continue to flop back and forth for the weather over the next 5-10 days. Back to warmer around Christmas, now (40-60) according to the latest GFS. Still too early to be confident in anything that far out.

[wxman57]

Current quite progressive pattern remains hard to predict more than a few days in advance. I'm seeing two solutions in the overnight models. Euro/GFS say cool with rain on Christmas Day (upper 40s). Canadian is more progressive with the upper low/trof and indicates cold with some sunshine (30s to 50s). I have about zero confidence in a 9-day forecast at this point.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS suggests a chilly Christmas Eve Morning...

12172011 00Z gfs_namer_180_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[Andrew]

Canadian comes in even colder:

[redneckweather]

The trend is now for a cold christmas eve/day instead of warm. I sure hope so.

[wxman57]

It's looking like cool (40s to near 60) for Christmas weekend.

[srainhoutx]

A full latitude trough for Christmas...?...hmmm...

[sambucol]

A full latitude trough for Christmas...?...hmmm...

What does that mean?

[srainhoutx]

A full latitude trough for Christmas...?...hmmm...

What does that mean?

This occurs when the northern stream and the southern stream merge allowing for a trough to extend from Canada well into the Gulf.

[wxman57]

A full latitude trough for Christmas...?...hmmm...

What does that mean?

That could mean colder weather, perhaps a light freeze after Christmas.

Yep, just checked the Euro surface temperature forecast for the 27th and it has the 32F line right about over Houston the Tuesday after Christmas. European ensembles are warmer, closer to 40 for the low on the 27th and low 40s for the low on Christmas.

[biggerbyte]

Well isn't that special??? (church lady voice)

[wxman57]

Latest GFS (06Z) has a rather dreary Christmas weekend in its sights. Temps holding in the 50s with light rain Thu-Sun. Euro is quite similar. Temps in the 50s with rain Thu-Sun then cooling down Monday with a low in the lower 40s. Light freeze is indicated by Tuesday (27th).

[redneckweather]

Perfect Christmas weather if you ask me. I bet those temps trend a bit downwards as the time approaches.

Thanks for the update wxman.