New ECMWF Prediction - Significantly Lower SLPs in Atlantic

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison between last month's ECMWF forecast of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) in the tropics for June-August vs. the current forecast for July-September. Quite amazingly low pressures forecast compared to the very high pressures in the East Pacific. This implies a weaker Bermuda High, lower trade wind speeds, warmer water and more rising air in the Main Development Region for 2010. And to top it off, the ECMWF is predicting neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific by May (<0.5C above normal in Nino 3.4 region). The whole setup looks just the opposite of 2009. Could we be in for a very active 2010 season with significant landfalling hurricanes across the Caribbean and U.S.? I think so.

[wxman57]

I so have to steal and hotlink those pictures.

This could be the year JB gets his hurricane passing just West of Philadelphia and driving Delaware Bay into the city.

The ECMWF charts are freely available here, Ed:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

[Big O]

With a progged weaker than average Bermuda High, wouldn't this suggest that any deep tropical systems would either recurve or, at best, threaten the SE or East coast?

[wxman57]

With a progged weaker than average Bermuda High, wouldn't this suggest that any deep tropical systems would either recurve or, at best, threaten the SE or East coast?

Yes, a weaker Bermuda High would allow recurvature farther east - for Cape Verde storms. However, conditions across all the Caribbean and Gulf would be much more favorable for development this year. Systems developing there would almost certainly threaten the U.S. (without being ripped apart by shear as they were in 2009).

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, a weaker Bermuda High would allow recurvature farther east - for Cape Verde storms. However, conditions across all the Caribbean and Gulf would be much more favorable for development this year. Systems developing there would almost certainly threaten the U.S. (without being ripped apart by shear as they were in 2009).

Kinda like 2005. Many of those storms that formed in 2005 were in the Caribbean and Gulf. Also, it was active in part because of a monsoonal trough in the Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma formed from a monsoonal trough.