Hurricane Beryl

[Tx2005]

Indeed. What do you do for a living if you don’t mind us asking? Stay safe. I’m staying put in League City unless she blows up to a strong 4. In that case, I will have my car packed and dogs ready to get out of dodge by Sunday evening

I work in healthcare so I’ll be riding the storm in the hospital if it comes to that. Safety wise, it’s pretty solid. We will have generator power and plenty of food/water.

The part that sucks is leaving the wife and kids behind at home.

Indeed. Godspeed. Where do you call home?

North side of the Houston metro.

[Pas_Bon]

For you newcomers to the forum, first of all, welcome.

I want to impress upon y’all a couple very important morsels of info.

(Disclaimer: I’m not a professional meteorologist)

A lot of us forum regulars have been through numerous hurricanes before - and of varying intensity.

Personally, I was born and raised in a coastal parish in Louisiana. I’ve been through several hurricanes. The worst for me were Lili 2002 (Vermilion Parish), Katrina 2005 (New Orleans), Rita 2005 (Vermilion Parish) and others.

This part of TX (Galveston County bias) has been relatively fortunate the past 20 years, other than Ike in 2008 (Cat 3) and obviously Harvey in 2017 (not much wind here, but obvious issues with rainfall inundation). Beryl is NOT expected to stall upon landfall at this time.


First of all, it is important not to panic. Easier said than done, right? It will be ok, but you need to take precautions.
The thing that causes the most human damage is storm surge. Unless you’re in a coastal locale, storm surge effects will be secondary. If you’re in an area that needs to worry like Hell about storm surge, you already know. If you don’t, you’re under a rock. Lol

Wind damage, tornadoes, and rain will be the most dangerous factors here.

Map out where large trees are on your property. Consider worst-case scenarios where said trees could possibly fall on your home/building where you may be staying. Don’t stay in those parts. At all. Period.

Tornadoes are quick and unpredictable, but usually the weaker variety. You won’t see wedge EF-5’s in a landfalling hurricane. Often, tornado damage in a landfalling hurricane is indistinguishable from
Direct Hurricane wind damage You really can’t mitigate those risks.
Be prepared for loud wind, and for hours. Be prepared for buckets upon buckets of rain, and for hours. Sandbag entryways if you want to be extra careful.

Boarding up windows is important in coastal counties adjacent to strongest winds. While winds get strong inland, you might be wasting energy boarding up in, say, Conroe, but hey, no one will fault you for being cautious. If people make fun of you for doing so, give us their contact info and we will send out a posse (kidding. Maybe).

Secure all loose items on your property that can be tossed around. Better yet, bring them indoors (patio furniture, garden gnomes, bird feeders, etc.)

Paver stones, single layer bricks at ground level, rusted out cars on blocks, etc. probably will not be lofted in the air. Potted plants go inside.

If you are in a coastal locale and decide to stay (don’t), it cannot be stated enough to ensure you have an axe to bust through your attic roof from the inside if needed. Yes, that’s a thing with precedent. There’s a reason that adage has stuck.

It’s an adrenaline rush. It’s scary at times. It’s vastly more than likely going to be all ok for you, especially in inland areas. You’ll also find out that staying isn’t really worth it due to being without power for perhaps a week or more in July. Unless you have a whole-home generator….which may not work if gas companies shut down gas lines.

All in all, follow local guidance. The rule of thumb is 1 gallon of water per day per person. That “person” number should include pets. Always get more. If you have a gas stove, again, gas companies may shut lines. Make sure you have propane and a gas grill or cooktop. Always ensure you have non-perishable food. Overestimate. Keep a full tank of gas in your car. If you have garage doors, park your car sideways outside in front of them…..unless you want to keep your car inside your garage. Have a battery-powered weather radio. If you have mobile brick chargers, charge them tonight. Turn fridge/freezer on their coldest settings. Tonight.

Always Evacuate if you’re unsure, especially if you have little ones or old ones in your care.

It is an experience for sure. Cat 3/4 is not fun. At all. I’m leaving town if over a 3 at Freeport, for example

Stay safe. Stay tuned. Keep in touch. Reach out if you need.

[jabcwb2]

This is AWESOME information and needed! THANK YOU!

[dp6]

It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles

That would be Baffin Bay to the west and Freeport-San Luis Pass to the east. And this one may exceed average error.

[Pas_Bon]

It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles

That would be Baffin Bay to the west and Freeport-San Luis Pass to the east. And this one may exceed average error.

She has shown that she cares not about traditions to-date.

[don]

0Z GFS and 0Z CMC , maybe models are finally starting to converge? We'll see what the models show overnight and tomorrow morning.

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prateptype-imp.us_sc (2).png

prateptype-imp.us_sc (3).png

[Tx2005]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

[jabcwb2]

When can we expect the 10pm update?

[Cpv17]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

You’re correct. And feel free to ask anything you want. I’m sure one of us will get around to answering it.

[Rip76]

When can we expect the 10pm update?

It was at 10pm.
Top of the last page.

[Stratton20]

Something interesting ive noticed on the GEFS 00z after the storm moves in land, their is now a camp of members that kind of get left behind in central texas and do not get picked up by the trough, and eventually dies out , that could prolong at least some rain chances after the storm moves in land

[Pas_Bon]

Something interesting ive noticed on the GEFS 00z after the storm moves in land, their is now a camp of members that kind of get left behind in central texas and do not get picked up by the trough, and eventually dies out , that could prolong at least some rain chances after the storm moves in land

I’m not a professional, and I may be missing something in the Synoptics, but I don’t see any scenario where she stalls. I will discount any stall solutions until I see something overtly ubiquitous otherwise.

[Pas_Bon]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

She does look like **** right now, yes. She will be over much more favorable conditions very shortly as long as she can thwart dry air incursion to her west (which she has shown she can do to-date). I’d expect rapid intensification leading up to landfall with Beryl.

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon its not a stall, their is just a small group that misses the trough, but instead slowly crawls westward while decaying, could keep some scattered rain in the forecast even after the main event is over, i dont see a stall with this upper air pattern

[Cpv17]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

She does look like **** right now, yes. She will be over much more favorable conditions very shortly as long as she can thwart dry air incursion to her west (which she has shown she can do to-date). I’d expect rapid intensification leading up to landfall with Beryl.

Yep, I’ve noticed over the years these storms have a tendency to strengthen right before landfall. I wouldn’t rule out a cat 3. It’s so hard to predict. Some people see that dry air and automatically assume it’s gonna kill it. That’s the wrong way of thinking, especially when it comes to Beryl. She seems to be cut from a different cloth. Anything from a tropical storm to a cat 3 is on the table imo.

[DoctorMu]

Latest track comes up just w of Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca. Just w of Edna. Turns nne and crosses 10 between Columbus and Sealy and w of Bellvile and Hempstead. Crossing 45 nw of Huntsville.

That's cruising down Hwy 21 from College Station to Madisonville. Then parallels Hwy 79 toward NW LA.

[Tx2005]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

She does look like **** right now, yes. She will be over much more favorable conditions very shortly as long as she can thwart dry air incursion to her west (which she has shown she can do to-date). I’d expect rapid intensification leading up to landfall with Beryl.

What are some realistic expectations for how strong Beryl gets before landfall (I know there is a lot variability and uncertainty)? I know people down near the coast in Galveston and Brazoria counties and they are wanting to head out if Beryl hits Cat 3 or above.

[Cpv17]

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather.

I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl currently looks. Isn't this what was expected after Beryl went over the Yucatan, and it won't be for another 24 hours or so before she starts intensifying again?

She does look like **** right now, yes. She will be over much more favorable conditions very shortly as long as she can thwart dry air incursion to her west (which she has shown she can do to-date). I’d expect rapid intensification leading up to landfall with Beryl.

What are some realistic expectations for how strong Beryl gets before landfall (I know there is a lot variability and uncertainty)? I know people down near the coast in Galveston and Brazoria counties and they are wanting to head out if Beryl hits Cat 3 or above.

Imo realistic would be anywhere from a strong tropical storm to a low end cat 2. So like 70-100mph.

[Rip76]

Latest track comes up just w of Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca. Just w of Edna. Turns nne and crosses 10 between Columbus and Sealy and w of Bellvile and Hempstead. Crossing 45 nw of Huntsville.

That's cruising down Hwy 21 from College Station to Madisonville. The parallels Hwy 79 toward NW LA.

I used to cruise 21 from San Marcos every weekend back in the day. Hit a pack of coyotes one night listening to Jackson Browne and a sixer of Bud heavy in a cooler on the floor.

[Pas_Bon]

My 10yo daughter was such a huge help with the yard today getting things in order. We are pre-gaming what could be her first hurricane experience. She’s a little antsy, but she’s a trooper. We will not stay if conditions warrant that (higher than a Cat 3).
We are packed to the brim with water, food, and gas for the generator.