Travis is far from doomsday imo. He’s been the best local meteorologist on this and many others. I love space city weather as well but Matt and Eric are both too prone to sounding absolute in their predictions and try not to sound “too hype” and then have to eat crow later on. Travis has been on this storms northerly trend for days and done a great job explaining why.
Sent this to him this afternoon….
Btw….I was stuck at Ochsner Hospital on Jefferson Hwy in NOLA during Katrina.
Folks around there aren't serious about a lot of things (I lived in Baton Rouge for nearly 5 years). Katrina was once a CAT5 that filled the entire GoM. She had some push. Even when weakening to a Cat3/2, the water was coming and Katrina was positioned perfectly so that east wind ahead of the storm surged into Lake Pontchartrain. Unfortunately, the Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco weren't organized and didn't take things as seriously as they should have.
I don't remember here in Texas being a target for Katrina.
I do remember Rita was progged initially to target Houston then curved toward the LaTx border.
I respect Travis Herzog for trying to keep folks aware. Especially on a holiday weekend.
As I posted earlier, the morning Houston Chronicle exclaimed that Beryl was headed to toward Mexico after Cancun. Oopsie.
Texas was never a landfall candidate for Katrina. The 4pm NHC shift on 8/26/2005 went from Pensacola to the Pearl River
Local NOLA Mets (Bob Breck and Carl Arredondo were actually mocking the notion that she would come close to Louisiana.)
I vividly remember them shutting down any talk of it the Thursday night prior to the shift. Back then, the GFDL was the big player in the computer model world. GFDL sniffed it out all morning Friday 8/26/2005 and NHC had no choice but to follow suit)
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.
Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.
Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.
Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
don wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:50 pm
212133_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.
Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.
Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.
Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
Latest track comes up just w of Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca. Just w of Edna. Turns nne and crosses 10 between Columbus and Sealy and w of Bellvile and Hempstead. Crossing 45 nw of Huntsville.
don wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:50 pm
212133_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.
Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.
Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.
Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
The wording about diffluent shear being a potential aid is concerning. To get this kind of shear for a hurricane often results in rapid intensification. The timing won't be good.
Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east.
I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happens, especially if Beryl rapidly intensifies.
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:14 pm
Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east.
I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happens, especially if Beryl rapidly intensifies.
Indeed. What do you do for a living if you don’t mind us asking? Stay safe. I’m staying put in League City unless she blows up to a strong 4. In that case, I will have my car packed and dogs ready to get out of dodge by Sunday evening
Scott747 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:58 pm
Latest track comes up just w of Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca. Just w of Edna. Turns nne and crosses 10 between Columbus and Sealy and w of Bellvile and Hempstead. Crossing 45 nw of Huntsville.
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:14 pm
Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east.
I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happens, especially if Beryl rapidly intensifies.
Indeed. What do you do for a living if you don’t mind us asking? Stay safe. I’m staying put in League City unless she blows up to a strong 4. In that case, I will have my car packed and dogs ready to get out of dodge by Sunday evening
I work in healthcare so I’ll be riding the storm in the hospital if it comes to that. Safety wise, it’s pretty solid. We will have generator power and plenty of food/water.
The part that sucks is leaving the wife and kids behind at home.
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:14 pm
Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east.
I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happens, especially if Beryl rapidly intensifies.
Indeed. What do you do for a living if you don’t mind us asking? Stay safe. I’m staying put in League City unless she blows up to a strong 4. In that case, I will have my car packed and dogs ready to get out of dodge by Sunday evening
I work in healthcare so I’ll be riding the storm in the hospital if it comes to that. Safety wise, it’s pretty solid. We will have generator power and plenty of food/water.
The part that sucks is leaving the wife and kids behind at home.
