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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Question about our weather - won't it be hot and windy with the storm to our east - pulling all the air towards the storm - wonder how hot we will get and how windy it will be?

Hi Ticka- we get a north breeze at 10-15 today. 15-20 out of the northwest tomorrow. HOT and dry, high today 97. No significant drop in humidity. Follow me on twitter @DavidPaulKHOU I give updates all the time.

PS. I've been actively reading all your posts on this board. Always great conversation here. Cheers all! DP

I don't have the means to check anything right now? So, what's the scoop. The trough IS still pulling Isaac northward, and the ridge is NOT closing the escape hatch? That is not how things looked last night. Just strange.

David Paul wrote:Hi Ticka- we get a north breeze at 10-15 today. 15-20 out of the northwest tomorrow. HOT and dry, high today 97. No significant drop in humidity. Follow me on twitter @DavidPaulKHOU I give updates all the time.

PS. I've been actively reading all your posts on this board. Always great conversation here. Cheers all! DP

Thanks for the reply David.

on the humidity sticking with us!

biggerbyte wrote:I don't have the means to check anything right now? So, what's the scoop. The trough IS still pulling Isaac northward, and the ridge is NOT closing the escape hatch? That is not how things looked last night. Just strange.

Isaac is still moving northwest but has slowed considerably. Now moving at 7 miles per hour. He must be running into something because hurricanes, er, tropical storms don't slow down just for kicks.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:38:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°51'N 88°13'W (27.85N 88.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 184 miles (297 km) to the SE (143°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,224m (4,016ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 42° at 58kts (From the NE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the south-southwest to the north-northeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:57:30Z

Based on those VDMs, Steve, the storm has barely moved in the last hour.

Portastorm wrote:Based on those VDMs, Steve, the storm has barely moved in the last hour.

I agree. Also based on the SFMR readings on outbound leg as well as that 71 kt gust NW of the center on the inbound leg and microwave imagery, an upgrade may well be coming at 10 AM. We will see.

Visible Image 10 minutes old...

Slidell, LA Radar: Long Range...

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:54Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 20

I just got on, and turned my GRL on. After watching this, it does indeed look as though Isaac has nearly stalled...with a little hiccup to the west. Now, I'm not going to say it is moving west, as this is probably just an adjustment. But, apparently, the NHC, or someone sees something to include the upper TX coast. This really bears watching closely now.

Visible zoomed image: (15 minutes old)...

What the heck!? This storm is giving me migraines....literally!

Some of the models were calling for a coastal rider.
That may be what's beginning to happen...

Maybe not...

Rip76 wrote:Some of the models were calling for a coastal rider.
That may be what's beginning to happen...

Maybe not...

Which models just out of curiosity?

From 2 days ago, I think the GFS was one.

This is stumping me. Either NHC is being cautious by extending that watch west or something is going on.

wxman666 wrote:This is stumping me. Either NHC is being cautious by extending that watch west or something is going on.

What I dont get is why extend to be cautious if everything is pointing to a New Orleans area hit...Yes there was a wobble to the west during the night but everyone seems to not be making a big deal of it. I just found it strange as you that the watch was put up like that...