January 2025

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Travis seems all in..

Low confidence cuz it’s still far out and the GFS isn’t really onboard.

GFS doesn’t even get the pattern right 2 days from now at the 500.

My guess is the GFS finally caves on Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

Brazoriatx979 oh no youre good! The euro was exactly like this ahead of the february 2021 outbreak, it was warmer than the other models and couldnt see that cold air, it even had us in the 50’s while the other guidance was like 30 degrees colder lol, the euro eventually caved and got closer to reality, same thing will happen here with the GFS

Euro and Canadian were on board with the cold in Feb 2021 this far out. We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

It’s a weak Niña at best. Probably neutral with a slight lean towards Niña.

La Nina's vary dramatically. The Jan and Feb 2021 snows and cold spells were in a La Nina winter.

[DoctorMu]

Travis seems all in..

Low confidence cuz it’s still far out and the GFS isn’t really onboard.

Travis was on the right side of the Beryl forecast. That Siberian air become so dense that a cross-polar jaunt is just a hop...

[walsean1]

Travis seems all in..

Low confidence cuz it’s still far out and the GFS isn’t really onboard.

Travis was on the right side of the Beryl forecast. That Siberian air become so dense that a cross-polar jaunt is just a hop...

Travis is posting this on his FB page to get us ready. Also, if the cold front moves through this upcoming Saturday, the models already don’t handle cold patterns well so it will be colder than what they forecast Sunday for the Marathon. In addition, if a disturbance pass over us during this time period, we would be looking at a Houston type snowstorm.

[jasons2k]

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!?

[sambucol]

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!?

Dang. I knew I forgot something in my winter preps!!!

[Stratton20]

That ICON 00z looks brutal if it went beyond 180 hours, -20s to -40’s showing up in colorado with a developimg winter storm in texas

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!?

Jason knows. I’ll grant spring after this and get ready to start chewing my allergy medicine

[DoctorMu]

Low confidence cuz it’s still far out and the GFS isn’t really onboard.

Travis was on the right side of the Beryl forecast. That Siberian air become so dense that a cross-polar jaunt is just a hop...

Travis is posting this on his FB page to get us ready. Also, if the cold front moves through this upcoming Saturday, the models already don’t handle cold patterns well so it will be colder than what they forecast Sunday for the Marathon. In addition, if a disturbance pass over us during this time period, we would be looking at a Houston type snowstorm.

[Brazoriatx979]

Well now everyone on 2k is saying the cold is going east after 1 bad run of the euro towards to gfs(warmer)

[Cpv17]

Well now everyone on 2k is saying the cold is going east after 1 bad run of the euro towards to gfs(warmer)

This is why I’m hesitant to buy in. You need unanimous agreement.

[Brazoriatx979]

Well now everyone on 2k is saying the cold is going east after 1 bad run of the euro towards to gfs(warmer)

This is why I’m hesitant to buy in. You need unanimous agreement.

could just be a flop and a bad run. you never know, but I guess will see what today shows

[Cpv17]

Well now everyone on 2k is saying the cold is going east after 1 bad run of the euro towards to gfs(warmer)

This is why I’m hesitant to buy in. You need unanimous agreement.

could just be a flop and a bad run. you never know, but I guess will see what today shows

Just stick to the ensembles this far out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This is why I’m hesitant to buy in. You need unanimous agreement.

could just be a flop and a bad run. you never know, but I guess will see what today shows

Just stick to the ensembles this far out.

EPS delivers it due south into Texas.

[jasons2k]

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!?

Jason knows. I’ll grant spring after this and get ready to start chewing my allergy medicine

I’m starting my cold preps today and telling everyone I know to get ready.

[cperk]

Well now everyone on 2k is saying the cold is going east after 1 bad run of the euro towards to gfs(warmer)

No one on this forum should be surprised at that Euro run in fact we should expect it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!?

Jason knows. I’ll grant spring after this and get ready to start chewing my allergy medicine

I’m starting my cold preps today and telling everyone I know to get ready.

Wrapped all the pipes leading to the cow troughs yesterday.

[tireman4]

524
FXUS64 KHGX 131121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Surface high pressure situated over the Southern PLains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley will keep northerly flow and benign weather
in place to start off next week. Thinner high clouds will be
overhead throughout the day with highs in the 50s. CLoud cover
increases overnight, though drier air near the surface will put lows
for Tuesday morning in the upper 20s/lower 30s across our northern
counties and mid 30s/lower 40s southward to the coast. The
aforementioned surface high drifts into the SE CONUS on Tuesday,
slowly veering winds easterly. Another coastal trough develops near
Deep S Texas/Mexico Coast, with isentropic lifting bringing light
showers offshore over the Gulf waters late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions remain benign across SE
Texas with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s/upper 40s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Surface winds will relax on Wednesday as the prevailing area of
surface high pressure in place to our NE slides further to the
east. Still, we will remain under a weak but steady offshore flow
regime which should otherwise maintain the cool pattern in place
for a few more days. Rainfall chances will increase marginally
along the immediate coast as a weak coastal trough forms near the
coastal bend. Still, inland rain chances still look marginal for
the time being and I continue to side with the less aggressive
solutions of the deterministic GFS in the long-term forecast
package. Much of the same is expected on Thursday, with highs
generally in the 50s and lows mostly in the 40s.

A broader pattern shift will arrive on Friday which will bring
about the return of onshore flow and thus increasing temperatures
and moisture ahead of our next system. Look for highs on Friday to
approach 70 with surface dew point values nearing the 60 mark on
Friday night. By Saturday, the approach of a robust midlevel
trough to our north will induce surface cyclogenesis over the TX
Panhandle, with this system dragging a cold front into SE TX
during the day on Saturday. Expect showers and storms to develop
along and ahead of this front with conditions clearing out during
the early evening hours. Gusty north winds and strong CAA will
follow the front on Sunday, with Saturday night`s lows in the
upper 30s to low 40s and daytime highs in the lower 50s. A further
decrease in temperatures is expected heading into MLK Day, with
most of the area in the upper 20s to 30s.

Beyond the forecast period, we continue to monitor the potential
for a more sustained push of cold air heading into the
early/middle part of next week. While models have backed off on
some of their more extreme solutions from the previous few
forecast cycles, it is nonetheless a possibility that we could see
subfreezing temperatures prevailing into next week. Still, there
remains quite a lot of uncertainty surrounding how the synoptic
pattern will evolve by the middle of next week (namely, the
magnitude and positioning of surface high pressure) and as such it
is far too early to make a skilled forecast for precise
temperature values at this time.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Lingering MVFR CIGs near the coast should soon scatter out,
bringing VFR conditions later this morning. Gusty north winds
briefly develop late this morning, slowly diminishing into the
afternoon. Winds become light this evening, shifting NE/ENE
overnight into Tuesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect today as elevated
north winds behind the departure of a cold front continue to
remain around 20 knots offshore. This will also continue to pose a
threat of low water levels in the Bays, and as such a Low Water
Advisory will remain in effect today. Look for offshore winds to
weaken by Wednesday with an onshore flow regime returning on
Friday. Another cold front will push offshore on Saturday,
bringing with it showers and storms as well as a shift to strong
north winds.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 34 56 42 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 58 39 55 44 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 56 44 54 48 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady

[tireman4]

On the topic of freezing weather, Cady from HGX NWS addresses it

Beyond the forecast period, we continue to monitor the potential
for a more sustained push of cold air heading into the
early/middle part of next week. While models have backed off on
some of their more extreme solutions from the previous few
forecast cycles, it is nonetheless a possibility that we could see
subfreezing temperatures prevailing into next week. Still, there
remains quite a lot of uncertainty surrounding how the synoptic
pattern will evolve by the middle of next week (namely, the
magnitude and positioning of surface high pressure) and as such it
is far too early to make a skilled forecast for precise
temperature values at this time.