January 2025

[Stratton20]

snowman65 thats not how it works at all

[Stormlover2020]

I’m still using reverse psychology ensembles are overated..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We all know, deep down, how this turns out lol

No, we don’t. You said the same crap in 2021 and in January of last year. Yeah, we are going to miss, especially in fantasy range. This isn’t fantasy range and we know it’s going to be well below normals.

If you don’t have anything worthwhile to add, meaning stating your case as to why you think it won’t, then don’t.

No one is confident on a winter storm. I am 95% confident in an extended cold streak and so is the CPC.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m still using reverse psychology ensembles are overated..

Ensembles are overrated? Ummm, not when looking for trends a week out.

[Stratton20]

That cold siberian air is coming straight down the plains and right into mexico, its crazy to see the euro/ CMC guidance locked in on this, i think eventually the GFS is going to cave

[Brazoriatx979]

Why does the gfs have such a hard time with these cold weather fronts?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Why does the gfs have such a hard time with these cold weather fronts?

It seems to struggle mightily when we have a changing delivery mechanism of cold air in the Winter. It can go from one extreme to the other outside 5 days.

It really struggles with a positive PNA moving negative. It did in 2021.

[Cpv17]

I think the GFS is what’s holding things back atm. People aren’t buying into it yet till the GFS aligns with the others.

[Brazoriatx979]

Why does the gfs have such a hard time with these cold weather fronts?

It seems to struggle mightily when we have a changing delivery mechanism of cold air in the Winter. It can go from one extreme to the other outside 5 days.

It really struggles with a positive PNA moving negative. It did in 2021.

Gotcha! So that's basically why I hear people say the gfs will usually "cave" to the other models..it's playing catch up to what the others have seen..sorry for the questions. Just trying to learn lol

[Stratton20]

Brazoriatx979 oh no youre good! The euro was exactly like this ahead of the february 2021 outbreak, it was warmer than the other models and couldnt see that cold air, it even had us in the 50’s while the other guidance was like 30 degrees colder lol, the euro eventually caved and got closer to reality, same thing will happen here with the GFS

[kyzsl51]

Brazoriatx979 oh no youre good! The euro was exactly like this ahead of the february 2021 outbreak, it was warmer than the other models and couldnt see that cold air, it even had us in the 50’s while the other guidance was like 30 degrees colder lol, the euro eventually caved and got closer to reality, same thing will happen here with the GFS

Exactly the point i was gonna make my man! This is almost an exacr rendition of how things are playing out now! Gfs didnt cave till a bit later and the Euro lost the cold.

[Brazoriatx979]

Not sure what this means or how it affects are our up coming front

[kyzsl51]

Not sure what this means or how it affects are our up coming front

I think that came out a while back....this is a la nina winter and those are typical predictions overall.

[Cpv17]

It’s a weak Niña at best. Probably neutral with a slight lean towards Niña.

[Stormlover2020]

I’m still using reverse psychology ensembles are overated..

Ensembles are overrated? Ummm, not when looking for trends a week out.

I’m trying to be superstitious, I know that but I said it last week and now this week is looking good lol

[tireman4]

8 to 12 Day Outlook

[Brazoriatx979]

Travis seems all in..

[Cpv17]

Travis seems all in..

Low confidence cuz it’s still far out and the GFS isn’t really onboard.

[sambucol]

Travis seems all in..

He must think this one will be cold enough to burst pipes. He is putting his reputation on the line this early to make a post like that in my opinion.

[Cpv17]

Travis seems all in..

He must think this one will be cold enough to burst pipes. He is putting his reputation on the line this early to make a post like that in my opinion.

He’s not confident in a hard freeze. He mentions that he has low confidence in that at this time.