Wx Infinity Forums

Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg) - Extrapolated

Not getting any stronger...NW eyewall is open, and it still looks to be pulling in dry air from the NE.

Really struggling.

Dry air has eroded back into the inner core. The northern eyewall from earlier has eroded. Unless it can choke out the dry air and contract its wind field some, it may just reach 75-80mph before landfall...the coast is coming quick.

I'm seeing wnw and really, really ragged looking. Nice rain maker though for those that need it, but there are going to be some paying the piper for others as well. Shame we can't have the good without the bad.

biggerbyte wrote:I'm with Doc on this. Until he is onshore and is actually moving out to the North.... Blah Blah

Edit to say... Come on, folks. I mean really. Doc does not mess around. If he thought this to be over for Texas, he would have said so.
He thinks like my old Buddy, Harold Taft. Models are good for what they are supposed to be good for. They are NOT the end all in forecasting. So many forecasters today live by them, but have no sense of reason or that natural gut feeling that real weather forecasters get. Anybody can go to school to be a weather reporter. Then we have men like Doc. Listen to him.

Ol' Harold Taft! I was literally thinking of him Saturday. Somewhere, I have a weather map that he used and I think signed, but I can't think where it is. That just popped into my mind as I was driving along Wish I could find it.

biggerbyte wrote:I'm seeing wnw and really, really ragged looking. Nice rain maker though for those that need it, but there are going to be some paying the piper for others as well. Shame we can't have the good without the bad.

Here's my opinion after watching this for days on end, and having just looked at the 24 hr water vapor: I'm not really seeing a fast enough or significant enough dip in the trough, nor am I seeing a sharp enough NW turn at this time. Additionally, moving at 10 mph in the gulf....how is that supposed to make landfall tomorrow? It's not a professional opinion and I'm not saying "this is definitely what will happen", but I'm with Dr. Neil on this. I went ahead and made minor preparations just in case.

All Dr. Neil Frank was doing was talking about how hurricanes can SOMETIMES go outside the cone. It's NOT going to happen with Isaac. He knows that and most of us here know that. Sorry if that ruffles a few little feathers here. Hey, I wouldn't mind seeing SOME weather off of Isaac being the weather weenie that I am but that is not going to happen.

meowracer wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:I'm with Doc on this. Until he is onshore and is actually moving out to the North.... Blah Blah

Edit to say... Come on, folks. I mean really. Doc does not mess around. If he thought this to be over for Texas, he would have said so.
He thinks like my old Buddy, Harold Taft. Models are good for what they are supposed to be good for. They are NOT the end all in forecasting. So many forecasters today live by them, but have no sense of reason or that natural gut feeling that real weather forecasters get. Anybody can go to school to be a weather reporter. Then we have men like Doc. Listen to him.

Ol' Harold Taft! I was literally thinking of him Saturday. Somewhere, I have a weather map that he used and I think signed, but I can't think where it is. That just popped into my mind as I was driving along Wish I could find it.

Harold and Doc are about the same caliber. Amazing men.

redneckweather wrote:All Dr. Neil Frank was doing was talking about how hurricanes can SOMETIMES go outside the cone. It's NOT going to happen with Isaac. He knows that and most of us here know that. Sorry if that ruffles a few little feathers here. Hey, I wouldn't mind seeing SOME weather off of Isaac being the weather weenie that I am but that is not going to happen.

Not true. He was very specific about Isaac. Not only what it is doing, of which it was not supposed to do, but the fact the Isaac could continue to defy and move further west than is being forecasted. He was not generalizing.

redneckweather wrote:All Dr. Neil Frank was doing was talking about how hurricanes can SOMETIMES go outside the cone. It's NOT going to happen with Isaac. He knows that and most of us here know that. Sorry if that ruffles a few little feathers here. Hey, I wouldn't mind seeing SOME weather off of Isaac being the weather weenie that I am but that is not going to happen.

yeah i totally agree. There is nothing wrong with being cautious for people who are in Houston but the reality is that this is not a Houston storm. This things is coming straight for New Orleans. The latest models have locked in.

what looks like the eye might not be the eye.

Something to remember folks. We are not just a 'little local' weather board anymore. We have neighbors to our East and beyond that are following and looking for some additional information. I think some forget that our members strech well away from the local Houston Metro Area. Let's keep that thought in the back of our minds when discussing Isaac...

Tropical Storm Isaac kinda reminds me Hurricane Juan from 1985 in appearance.

srainhoutx wrote:Something to remember folks. We are not just a 'little local' weather board anymore. We have neighbors to our East and beyond that are following and looking for some additional information. I think some forget that our members strech well away from the local Houston Metro Area. Let's keep that thought in the back of our minds when discussing Isaac...

Everyone should keep an eye on Isaac regardless of where the center path inside the cone. Could it go outside of the cone? Possibly.

Anyways, I think I could get some statistical data outside of Southeast Texas.

A few thoughts tonight --

I don't see any way this makes landfall in Texas. Not even a remote chance. Now that that's out of the way...

Secondly, microwave imagery shows the core is intact. The dry air entrainment should stop and what little easterly shear there is will soon drop off. Check out the forecast HRRR images - it's done a great job with Isaac and shows an improving structure in the near term.

With the pressure so low for a TS, the winds will respond and the cyclone will intensify. Also note the latest GFDL has this at 963mb at landfall - strongest yet for this model. The large windfield and angle of approach into NOLA could mean some major surge flooding and a big test for the levee system. Those in LA/MS need to take this situation very seriously.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
@mchesterfield26 want to continue Isaac as a record breaker. Lowest pressure ever in the gulf if aug TROPICAL STORM

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
recon had 64 kt surface. now this: MAX FL WIND 74 KT SW QUAD 19:52:30Z pressure 982. amazing

http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

Dry air at the 500 and 600 millibar level.

Ptarmigan wrote:Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
@mchesterfield26 want to continue Isaac as a record breaker. Lowest pressure ever in the gulf if aug TROPICAL STORM
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
recon had 64 kt surface. now this: MAX FL WIND 74 KT SW QUAD 19:52:30Z pressure 982. amazing
http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

Almost right on cue - it was only a matter of time before the winds responded to that pressure. It could be off to the races up to landfall now. We have the diurnal min overnight and tomorrow the frictional effects of land will help the storm tighten.

I think we are seeing some clouds from Isaac over us this evening - definitely a color we don't normally see during sunset.

I am hoping we get a super duper cold front in here and we can start enjoying FALL and leave this blasted heat behind us.

Anyone look beyond Isaac - the train is still chugging away.....but I honestly expect something locally in the GOM after Isaac decides what he is going to do.

PT
I love the grainy black and white satellite pics.

Sorry, off topic.