Tropical Depression Isaac:

[Bluefalcon]

Recon's fixes of Isaac's center has shown a clear NW track for the last 4 hours...

[Bluefalcon]

Latest HWRF

[Rip76]

BF
That seems about right to me...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

[skidog40]

there seems to be more factors involved. we have some storms east florida coast, does not seem to be flowing with storm. then if you look south around mexico(bay of campeche) you have to wrap arounds. one going east one going west. then north, it wants to go north but something is holding it back. some from corpus to miami WATCH.

[tireman4]

From Dr Neil Frank, former NHC director and someone ( I know I do!!) this board respects a ton...just food for thought....


http://www.khou.com/community/WATCH-Dr- ... 20065.html

[skidog40]

shearing seems to be going away. this storm is about blow up

[cristina99]

I saw the same thing. He is not ruling anything out at this point. When a storm gets in the Gulf, it is going to go somewhere and we all have to be on guard.

From Dr Neil Frank, former NHC director and someone ( I know I do!!) this board respects a ton...just food for thought....


http://www.khou.com/community/WATCH-Dr- ... 20065.html

[Bluefalcon]

Now that it seems that Isaac has locked onto the NOLA, MS, AL coast...at least we can say that the Hurricane Hunters are flying out of Ellington Field.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's not going o hit anywhere near Alabama and there I an outside shot at western MS

[srainhoutx]

Not derail the topic at hand, but as savvy as I am concerning the Tropics, I felt fairly confident that the NHC as well as the 'local meteorologist' had a good handle on just what Katrina was going to do on August 25th back in 2005 by crossing the Peninsula. Now picture my home being on a canal with a boat and plenty of outdoor furniture and plants. I wasn't even in a Watch in the Lower Keys when I woke on Thursday, August 25th. Much to my surprise as well as forecasters, Katrina had a mind of its own and decided to turn SW by 11PM that same day and ended up in Florida Bay N of my front doorstep by about 40 miles. That is the very reason I always state until a storm is inland and dead, we should keep an eye on things...

Katrina Track Forecast 08242005 11PM 06_AL1205W.gif

Katrina Track 08252012 10_AL1205W.gif

Huricane Katrina August 26, 2005 004.jpg

Huricane Katrina August 26, 2005 005.jpg

[biggerbyte]

I'm with Doc on this. Until he is onshore and is actually moving out to the North.... Blah Blah

Edit to say... Come on, folks. I mean really. Doc does not mess around. If he thought this to be over for Texas, he would have said so.
He thinks like my old Buddy, Harold Taft. Models are good for what they are supposed to be good for. They are NOT the end all in forecasting. So many forecasters today live by them, but have no sense of reason or that natural gut feeling that real weather forecasters get. Anybody can go to school to be a weather reporter. Then we have men like Doc. Listen to him.

[Bluefalcon]

For what its worth, Isaac's eye is now showing up on NW FL long range radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[CAK]

Does anyone have a link to long term satellite/water vapor runs. All the links I have are for a short time. I'd like to see 8-12 hour daytime loops...

[cisa]

Ok so here's my dumb question of the evening. I'm looking at the satellite and the size of the storm. If the eye comes in anywhere to the west of NOLA or angles in to the coast, doesn't it look like the outer squals would be on the eastern side of our area? I mean, I can't help but hope that some of the drought areas east of us get some relief from this, but it's a pretty wide storm. Like I said, just a curious questions.

[Bluefalcon]

Does anyone have a link to long term satellite/water vapor runs. All the links I have are for a short time. I'd like to see 8-12 hour daytime loops...

Go to the NWS home page. Click on Satellite page, and click on the 24 hour loop of the water vapor.

[CAK]

Go to the NWS home page. Click on Satellite page, and click on the 24 hour loop of the water vapor.

I've been all over that site, even on the Satellite page and still can not find the 24 hour loop... I must be blind!

Edit: I found it!... Thanks!

[jeff]

Ok so here's my dumb question of the evening. I'm looking at the satellite and the size of the storm. If the eye comes in anywhere to the west of NOLA or angles in to the coast, doesn't it look like the outer squals would be on the eastern side of our area? I mean, I can't help but hope that some of the drought areas east of us get some relief from this, but it's a pretty wide storm. Like I said, just a curious questions.

While it would be possible for a squall or two to reach into SE TX, we will be fairly well removed from the circulation. Will need to see how and where any dry air entrainment is when the system is nearest its approach to our area. Right now the dry air is east through north of the center with all the convection south and west

[srainhoutx]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 00:31Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:54:23Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°47'N 86°27'W (26.7833N 86.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 257 miles (413 km) to the S (170°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,981m (9,780ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the WSW (258°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 60kts (From the NW at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 110 nautical miles (127 statute miles) to the W (265°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:34:49Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the east quadrant at 0:00:53Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SLP EXTRAP FROM 10K FT

[cisa]

Ok so here's my dumb question of the evening. I'm looking at the satellite and the size of the storm. If the eye comes in anywhere to the west of NOLA or angles in to the coast, doesn't it look like the outer squals would be on the eastern side of our area? I mean, I can't help but hope that some of the drought areas east of us get some relief from this, but it's a pretty wide storm. Like I said, just a curious questions.

While it would be possible for a squall or two to reach into SE TX, we will be fairly well removed from the circulation. Will need to see how and where any dry air entrainment is when the system is nearest its approach to our area. Right now the dry air is east through north of the center with all the convection south and west

Thank you Jeff.