Wx Infinity Forums

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:33 am Again, just for educational purposes...

probably going to be pretty accurate...why? because that's where I live...and that's all it does is rain...why stop now??

GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours

Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast
to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a
broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday.
Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:40 pm GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours

Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX

That would certainly be a rainmaker for Houston.

When does the euro run again? Also can someone share the gfs boliver landing model?

PSA from Houston Galveston HGX

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:17 pm When does the euro run again? Also can someone share the gfs boliver landing model?

I think it just initialized.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:17 pm When does the euro run again? Also can someone share the gfs boliver landing model?

You should try tropicaltidbits.com for a look at the model runs

cperk wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:20 pm

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:17 pm When does the euro run again? Also can someone share the gfs boliver landing model?

I think it just initialized.

This is correct.

Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run
A tab bit farther south and west. The farther southwest it goes, I think the stronger it could get as it gets deeper warm water and loses some continental dry air.

The 12z euro is actually a little further n and e of the 0z. Same realtive strength. Key wil be if it still shows a turn or continues w.

Euro 12 Z run

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:49 pmEuro 12 Z run

Im not liking that..

The 12z euro is generally about the same as the 0z. It doesn't get as far south but the turn isn't a sharp as the 0z and goes in around the golden triangle.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:52 pm The 12z euro is generally about the same as the 0z. It doesn't get as far south but the turn isn't a sharp as the 0z and goes in around the golden triangle.

Getting a little to close for comfort wouldnt ya say?

For reference purposes, Ivest 92L at this time

The 12z Euro is pretty close to previous run..

Still trending towards texas

Too early to tell at all where its gonna head. I think we will have a much better read on this thing come Wednesday.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:53 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:52 pm The 12z euro is generally about the same as the 0z. It doesn't get as far south but the turn isn't a sharp as the 0z and goes in around the golden triangle.

Getting a little to close for comfort wouldnt ya say?

Definitely looking like it will depend on how far s it gets.