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Sure would be nice to get some of that wetness @ my place in Tx City!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CST TUE DEC 4 2012

TXZ200-042200-
LIBERTY TX-
316 PM CST TUE DEC 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM CST...

AT 314 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AMES...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMES AND DEVERS.

Flood Advisories issued for our neighbors to the SW near Victoria and to the E in far SE Texas S of Beaumont.

Just not much up here in The Woodlands but some showers. The line to the north sorta split as it moved this way and the line to the south is dominating now. It's like 2011 all over again it seems.

Just light rain here in Stafford. Quite a light show on the drive home. Traffic was a mess. Geesh, it was just light rain. Bring us some more please.

mckinne63 wrote:Just light rain here in Stafford. Quite a light show on the drive home. Traffic was a mess. Geesh, it was just light rain. Bring us some more please.

Next Sunday into early Monday may be our next chance. It may be a bit more widespread as well with that strong front barreling S. And for those to our N and W, wintry mischief may well be ahead in New Mexico, far West Texas, The Panhandle on into Oklahoma. Severe threat appears to be building further S and E into Central/S and E Texas and Western Louisiana depending on just how far SW that upper air disturbance digs. If the Euro is to be believed, a significant Winter Storm with all sort of wild weather may be ahead Sunday into Monday across the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains. Stay tuned!

Haha, just to show how much chaos there still is in the model world; the 18z is drastically weaker and more progressive with the trough. Because of this, there is much less precipitation and cooler air all across the Southern Plains.

srainhoutx wrote:

mckinne63 wrote:Just light rain here in Stafford. Quite a light show on the drive home. Traffic was a mess. Geesh, it was just light rain. Bring us some more please.

Next Sunday into early Monday may be our next chance. It may be a bit more widespread as well with that strong front barreling S. And for those to our N and W, wintry mischief may well be ahead in New Mexico, far West Texas, The Panhandle on into Oklahoma. Severe threat appears to be building further S and E into Central/S and E Texas and Western Louisiana depending on just how far SW that upper air disturbance digs. If the Euro is to be believed, a significant Winter Storm with all sort of wild weather may be ahead Sunday into Monday across the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains. Stay tuned!

I hope so! Can't believe with all this noise and light show, barely any rain. Sigh... Time to put the hose in the ponds again.

I'm not a weather guru, but read this forum regularly. I've watched the models all change so much. Would be nice to have it feel like December and not June.

Just got home and checked the gauge - a whopping .14"

jasons wrote:Just got home and checked the gauge - a whopping .14"

I can beat that. Last batch of showers brought my total to .27...wxman57 probably had a foot of rain in SW Houston...

who's going to bring up the potential cold air outbreak next week? didn't see a thread for that yet. I am ready for some WINTER!!

srainhoutx wrote:

jasons wrote:Just got home and checked the gauge - a whopping .14"

I can beat that. Last batch of showers brought my total to .27...wxman57 probably had a foot of rain in SW Houston...

Had 0.97 in Friendswood, so a pretty decent event for us.
Cristina, wxman57 is doing all he can to please us warm weather loving folks, and I hope he continues to win.

cristina99 wrote:who's going to bring up the potential cold air outbreak next week? didn't see a thread for that yet. I am ready for some WINTER!!

We've been talking about it for about a week now on this post. Especially the past few days. Today has just been filled with the wonderful sight of rain so many saw throughout the day today. But since that is all behind us, expect the chatter to pick up again tomorrow!

By the way, Austin has finally started to mention this arctic weather for next week. As of now they have us for mid 50s, I expect those temps to drop. In Houston, David Paul has the lowest high for next Tuesday of 55 degrees. Tim Heller has 58 degrees. And Frank has 64 degrees. Sorry, Frank.... it ain't happening!

GFS is already pulling our legs,Trough is much less progressive and appears to eject northeast. For my sake, I hope it's just a hiccup

You have remember the 'energy' associated with the potential short wave is currently way out in the N Pacific. The models will flip flop like a fish out of water until this disturbance gets a bit closer to the W Canadian Coast near Vancouver later in the week. Meanwhile it will be nice to have some more seasonal temps the next couple of days. I've been wearing shorts and t shirts the past several days during this Spring like weather of late.

David Paul tonight on the 10:00 pm news has our high of 55 for Tuesday, and he said this cooler weather will last throughout the week.

srainhoutx wrote:You have remember the 'energy' associated with the potential short wave is currently way out in the N Pacific. The models will flip flop like a fish out of water until this disturbance gets a bit closer to the W Canadian Coast near Vancouver later in the week. Meanwhile it will be nice to have some more seasonal temps the next couple of days. I've been wearing shorts and t shirts the past several days during this Spring like weather of late.

Same here. It suppose to cool as it is December.

Only recieved .28" yesterday. A little cooler this morning with temps in 50s after yesterday's frontal passage.

According to the current NWS forecast:

Temps in the mid to upper 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies through the rest of the week across SE TX. The weekend looks to be very warm, cloudy, humid and with a slight chance of storms followed by a decent cold front early next week.

The over night operational and ensemble guidance has trended slightly more progressive and a bit further N in regards to the 500mb upper low/trough suggesting a quicker moving cold front and a bit less in the way of moisture. The 00Z UKMet does hold a closed low back in Arizona/New Mexico a bit longer and suggests a bit more southern track across Texas. All in all the long awaited pattern change that we have been discussing is looking likely as heights rise across the NE Pacific and the never ending Gulf of Alaska Low Pressure vortex breaks down. That tends to favor a general troughiness across the Intermountain West and Plains. That type of pattern does bode well for cooler temps and general storminess across the Southern Plains and the Western Gulf Coast as weak waves of low pressure develop along the Coast from time to time.
The zonal flow of warm Pacific air is nearing an end and the days of lows in the 60’s and highs in the lower 80’s are quickly diminishing and hopefully we will see a bit more moisture chance after a very dry October and November.

Unfortunately (for me), next week does look more like December as far as the weather. The Euro and GFS are getting pretty close now, though the GFS is a bit faster with the multiple systems moving along in the southern stream next week. First real cold front should move through Sunday night, dropping Monday's low down to near 50. High may not get much above the mid 50s, though. Down to around 40 on Tuesday morning (mid 30s northern parts of town). Continued clouds means the high will be maybe the low to mid 50s.

On Wednesday, an approaching trof may generate a wave on the front off the TX coast (west Gulf low). This could produce widespread light to moderate rain along the coast (including Houston) during the day on Wednesday. The high on Wednesday could be only in the 40s, depending upon the timing of the rain. Rain ends Wednesday evening. Another such system may be approaching on Friday, leading to more rain and continued cool weather. BOOOO (on the cold)!