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JackCruz wrote:Just watched channel 13's weather report. Travis said that Houston would be on the dry side of the storm.

Can Houston still be impacted in any way?

No, the dry side means nothing...LOL Sorry!!!!

MRG93415 wrote:

JackCruz wrote:Just watched channel 13's weather report. Travis said that Houston would be on the dry side of the storm.

Can Houston still be impacted in any way?

No, the dry side means nothing...LOL Sorry!!!!

I know, I mean in terms of it turning more west

JackCruz wrote:

MRG93415 wrote:

JackCruz wrote:Just watched channel 13's weather report. Travis said that Houston would be on the dry side of the storm.

Can Houston still be impacted in any way?

No, the dry side means nothing...LOL Sorry!!!!

I know, I mean in terms of it turning more west

Oh, sorry....I think from what everyone on here has been saying is that, that is not gonna happen. I was hoping for some rain out of this but it looks like we are going to stay dry.

NWS has put "tropical storm condition" icons for Tuesday night into Wednesday for Lake Charles 7 day forecast!

Also for Vinton..right at the border!

Isaac appears to be heading for landfall near the mouth of the MS River tomorrow evening. By the GFS "coming to its senses", I meant that is no longer all by itself in forecasting a landfall much farther west than the other models. It's unlikely we'll see any significant weather this far west as Isaac moves ashore tomorrow night/Wed.

104 miles from my house....(Vinton, LA that is)

tireman4 wrote:104 miles from my house....(Vinton, LA that is)

Tireman, you need to recalibrate your ruler. The center is about 275 miles from the mouth of the MS. Maybe 304 miles?

wxman57 wrote:Isaac appears to be heading for landfall near the mouth of the MS River tomorrow evening. By the GFS "coming to its senses", I meant that is no longer all by itself in forecasting a landfall much farther west than the other models. It's unlikely we'll see any significant weather this far west as Isaac moves ashore tomorrow night/Wed.

I just looked at the 12z GFS run,and it's not that much difference from prevous runs.So i don't get the coming to it's senses comment.

westside of storm expanding all the way to texas coast. well i guess the 90 degree turn north is about to happen?

wxman57 wrote:

tireman4 wrote:104 miles from my house....(Vinton, LA that is)

Tireman, you need to recalibrate your ruler. The center is about 275 miles from the mouth of the MS. Maybe 304 miles?

Ha ha. No, I was posting in regards to what a poster stated about tropical storm conditions being expected in Vinton, LA. I was stating, Vinton, LA was 104 miles from my house. Yes, the mouth of the Mississippi is aways from me. LOL

Folks, let's not lose track of the fact the Isaac is not over land yet. We can't have the ridge to its north, AND have him move north. It has to be one or the other, and at this point we are not exactly sure which. You know the drill.

Edit to add the crucial times are right before landfall, or shortly thereafter.

Isaac appears to be getting a bit better organized now. Shear that has been affecting Isaac seems to be decreasing and convection is beginning to wrap around the northern semi circle. RECON that departed from Ellington is descending and buoy obs suggest that pressure is falling rather rapidly. We'll see if the winds are catching up with the pressure falls now.

cperk wrote:

wxman57 wrote:Isaac appears to be heading for landfall near the mouth of the MS River tomorrow evening. By the GFS "coming to its senses", I meant that is no longer all by itself in forecasting a landfall much farther west than the other models. It's unlikely we'll see any significant weather this far west as Isaac moves ashore tomorrow night/Wed.

I just looked at the 12z GFS run,and it's not that much difference from prevous runs.So i don't get the coming to it's senses comment.

Let's take a bit closer look at the 12z GFS. I plotted the projected pressure field in 1mb increments. Moving ashore just west of the mouth of the MS, not skimming westward along the coast and moving inland into western Vermilion Bay. That's a significant change:

Let's take a look at the mid levels of the atmosphere and see what might be steering Isaac. Note that the high center is over Colorado and a trof axis is approaching northern Louisiana. This is why Isaac will move NW not westerly. Once inland, over central Louisiana, the high over Colorado may extend eastward and temporarily cause Isaac to slow its forward speed significantly, but there's nothing to indicate any threat to Houston.

In other words....

"Get out the sprinklers"

It looks like it’s going to be a bumpy ride for RECON. They just made a circle and are now heading toward the center. There was an uncontaminated reading of 70 mph well away from the 'center'. We'll see what they found.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AFFECTING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

The 12Z Euro suggests a tad W landfall from the 00Z run. That model is suggesting a SE LA/MS landfall @ hour 48.
Hour 78 drifting slowly N into MS...

Interesting... The 11:00am advisory showed Isaac was 26.1 North. The new advisory still shows the same thing. West movement? Looks like it got pulled under the convection.
Not too sure about this NW movement of 14mph.

No vortex message yet, but so far RECON is suggesting we do have a developing cyclone as the winds have expanded further away from the 'center' and are clearly in the strong Tropical Storm range. It does appear the 'center' has tucked closer to the deep convection suggesting a bit of a westerly motion in the short term.