July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Rip76]

The GFS continues to suggest the energy from Barry will ride all the way around a building high pressure ridge and return to Mississippi/Louisiana in about 10 days.

Ha, wow.

[davidiowx]

Barry is crazy! Wasn't that the center that recon was showing earlier that is now racing towards the coastline?

[TexasBreeze]

The GFS continues to suggest the energy from Barry will ride all the way around a building high pressure ridge and return to Mississippi/Louisiana in about 10 days.

Ha, wow.

The CMC model shows the same thing with the remnants in 10 days.

[Texashawk]

So if Barry keeps moving so slowly, is there a chance it could ‘miss its train’ I.e. the trough and never get picked up?

[Cpv17]

The Euro shows basically no rain for us over the next 10 days. At least the GFS offers some hope. Looks like we could be entering a very hot and dry period. Sucks big time :/

[Belmer]

So if Barry keeps moving so slowly, is there a chance it could ‘miss its train’ I.e. the trough and never get picked up?

Doubtful. Trough will probably help continue pulling it north. But since Barry never intensified to its once expectation, it will now feel more of the lower level steering flow. In this case, a high pressure to its southeast should help further in pulling Barry northwestward.

[sambucol]

Is the center reforming now?

[srainhoutx]

Is the center reforming now?

No. One main mesovort rotating around a broad area of lower pressure about 90 miles S of New Orleans. Still moving generally WNW at 5 MPH

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[dbrooks77346]

Is the center reforming now?

No. One main mesovort rotating around a broad area of lower pressure about 90 miles S of New Orleans. Still moving generally WNW at 5 MPH

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Wow this has got to be one of the wierdest storms ever. I tip my hat to all our weather guys, as forcasting these storms is hard.

[DoctorMu]

You're not kidding.

Its summer..in..houston..what do you expect?

You ever hear of subsidence? The pressure cook is gonna be on wherever that storm doesn't go.

That upper level high over a tropical system will press us to (a heat) death.

It's possible if the system remains disorganized we could wee a band or two with cloud cover late Saturday and mostly Sunday. We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

So if Barry keeps moving so slowly, is there a chance it could ‘miss its train’ I.e. the trough and never get picked up?

Doubtful. Trough will probably help continue pulling it north. But since Barry never intensified to its once expectation, it will now feel more of the lower level steering flow. In this case, a high pressure to its southeast should help further in pulling Barry northwestward.

Lemons gonna lemon.

The disorganization of the storm actually piques a little confidence we could see some storm bands this weekend, and keep temps down a little as well. Agree about lower level airflow having a stronger sighting in steering potentially than expected. Barry looks like it's going to hug the coast for awhile today.

[Texaspirate11]

our nws is calling for potential heavy rains along the coast saturday

. Global models develop a
convergence axis near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. It is
kind of tricky determining where low level convergence will
develop in the wake of a tropical system but there is some
agreement between the GFS/GEM and EC that one such band will
establish itself along the upper Texas coast. If the band develops
as currently progged, need to watch out for some locally heavy
rain late Saturday night into Sunday along the coast. WPC has
outlooked the extreme SE portion of the area in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall on Saturday and a Marginal/Slight Risk for
coastal regions on Sunday.

[unome]

rather stunning https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

Screenshot_2019-07-12 COD NEXLAB Satellite and Radar - Copy.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite
imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A
prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the
eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there
were several reports of strong winds in association with this
feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but
to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from
becoming better organized.

The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn
northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a
weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and
this motion should bring the center across the central coast of
Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point,
after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies.
The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last
advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant
changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again
has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east
of the the various consensus models.

Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective
structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry
air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts
continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC
forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is
expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall
between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.7N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.1N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 31.3N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1800Z 35.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 38.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Cromagnum]

So about that northward path...currently moving Southwest.

[Rip76]

Hmmm


https://m.imgur.com/CczCPXj

[davidiowx]

So about that northward path...currently moving Southwest.

At a good pace as well. The overall structure of the storm is moving in the WNW to NW direction though per the NHC.

[Snowman]

The vortex that is moving southwest is not the actual center of the storm. It has been rotating around the broader area of low pressure, which is moving wnw. More convection is starting to fire around the center of the storm. Barry looks to be making a final effort to strengthen as it approaches the Louisiana coast.

[Katdaddy]

TS Barry looks a little more organized with max sustained winds of 65MPH. We still look to have minimal effects along the Upper TX Coast this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. However it will be interesting to see how the inflow band sets up Saturday night. One of the nice effects from Barry are the beautiful sunsets and sunrises thanks to cirrus clouds from Barry’s high level outflow. Here is one of my very Barry sunrise picts from this morning.

[Snowman]

Rain bands are finally starting to wrap around the north part of the storm. Barry has become much more organized in the past few hours.