Wx Infinity Forums

TXStormjg wrote:

ticka1 wrote:by no means are we safe from isaac but the threat isnt as great as it was sunday evening. i will still watch isaac until landfall happens and we are fully out of harms way! i do believe this id new orleans storm! and isaac didnt strengthen overnight either!

Can you tell me what would need to happen today for this to become our problem?

shift to the west in actual track!

Are the west shifts done now?

The 6oz GFS did'nt change,practically identical to the oz run.

sambucol wrote:Are the west shifts done now?

I think that will depend on what guidance offers and what the movement of Isaac does over the next 12-24 hours. SW shear and the closeness of the Upper Level Low to the SW of Isaac has kept intensification in check. That said a core does appear to be developing, so we'll need to keep an eye on Isaac today. The 06Z Operational GFS still suggests a very slow moving storm along the Louisiana Coast drifting W into SE TX. My suggestion is to continue monitoring and for those that may feel uneasy, to a few steps to prepare as anyone who lives along the Gulf Coast should for anty Tropical system. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued further W to the TX/LA border. Isaac still moving WNW does raise an eyebrow a bit, but as of this time there has not been rapid intensification. We'll see what the day and the best data bring. Stay tuned.

Did we have a center relocation? If so, then the 12z models would be the ones that have this "new" data embedded in them...is this correct? Would a center relocation affect the track of Isaac much at all?

There was a center relocation under deeper convection to the N by about 50 to 75 miles. RECON data including an ongoing G-IV mission should be available for the 12Z suite, so if we see further shifting, it would tend to show up in that suite of guidance. Isaac is still moving WNW or about 300 degrees as of this time.

Thank you. So I take it this would not affect his track much at all then.

At this time SE Louisiana/MS/AL are the most likely landfall solutions. At 10AM will see a full package update and again at 4PM. The 4 PM CDT Advisory will be the one that has all the latest 12Z suite of guidance available, so that would tend to be the one to watch if we are going to see any Major Trends further W that may be an issue for our area, I would think.

srainhoutx wrote:At this time SE Louisiana/MS/AL are the most likely landfall solutions.

I think this is becoming a little clearer now (I hope), but there is still a bit of a ridge to the north of Isaac.

Rip76 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:At this time SE Louisiana/MS/AL are the most likely landfall solutions.

I think this is becoming a little clearer now (I hope), but there is still a bit of a ridge to the north of Isaac.

There is...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

VALID 12Z MON AUG 27 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012

...ALL EYES REMAIN FIXED ON ISAAC...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BY TUESDAY...

THE TROPICS WILL CONTINUE TO TRUMP THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST AS
ISAAC TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OUTER
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA ON
MONDAY...AND AS ISAAC APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY...IMPACTS OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT FROM LOUISIANA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXTEND FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ISAAC...PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN U.S....BRINGING A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF
THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF ISSAC APPROACHING THE GULF
COAST. THE STALLED BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN INTERACTING WITH ISAAC LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WITH TIME TO BEGIN EXTENDING UP ALONG THE FRONT..

OUT WEST...A PACIFIC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT MUCH
OF A RAIN MAKER FOR THE REGION. TO THE SOUTH...THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHOULD BE GENERALLY HOT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GERHARDT

Rip76 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:At this time SE Louisiana/MS/AL are the most likely landfall solutions.

I think this is becoming a little clearer now (I hope), but there is still a bit of a ridge to the north of Isaac.

A little clearer,but not clear enough.The 5am disco stated that.

srain have you checked out the 6oz GFDL.

super rapid scan - good morning Isaac

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... display=60

cperk wrote:srain have you checked out the 6oz GFDL.

I have. It still remains on the far western side of the available guidance solutions at this time.

cperk wrote:srain have you checked out the 6oz GFDL.

What does it show?

ticka1 wrote:

cperk wrote:srain have you checked out the 6oz GFDL.

What does it show?

SE TX landfall.

current 5-day QPF for Isaac - just under 20" for MS/AL - gradient down to 1/10" for Houston area

Hey gang. Many folks are at work and have images blocked from their workplace. Please try to give a brief discussion of any images posted, since many are following our discussions very closely for good and accurate information as Isaac moves through the Gulf. Also I will add that we set a new record yesterday evening with 259 online and over a half a million hits to our local weather forum community in the past 24 hours. It is great to see some old familiar folks back again and so many new ones. We hope you find the information you are looking for and enjoy your time on our board.

Isaac's current wind field (up to 5 am, ts strength only - that will likely change today)



Isaac's wind history (ts strength only)

GFDL looks like a direct hit for us here in Houston. How reliable has the GFDL been this year?