September 2020:

[TexasBreeze]

I too think 5" is conservative, but I don't see widespread 20/30 + inches. Isolated areas maybe considering the GFS hangs the low remnants around entire next week, even into next wknd. Small storm too.

[don]

12z GFS has Beta making landfall around Matagorda, and sticking around southeast Texas most of next week.Unless Beta dissipates into a naked swirl we would definitely see more than a few inches of rain with that setup. I would wait until we get in range of the mesoscale models to better pinpoint structure and qpf potential.

[Rip76]

When’s recon?

[Cpv17]

I too think 5" is conservative, but I don't see widespread 20/30 + inches. Isolated areas maybe considering the GFS hangs the low remnants around entire next week, even into next wknd. Small storm too.

Maybe not 20 or 30 but I think 10 to 15” would seem plausible. What about you?

[TexasBreeze]

Reasonable to me, more than the GFS says, but somewhere there should be a sharp gradient. Like Don posted above though, gotta see the structure of it first. Still early in the game...

[txsnowmaker]

So are we looking at Harvey part 2 in terms of rain in the Houston area? That track sure seems pretty similar.

Highly unlikely. They’re only calling for 5” in the Houston area. We can get more rain than that in a single thunderstorm on occasion. I think that forecasted total of 5” is highly suspect though. Don’t see how we could only get that small of an amount of rain with it over us for 3 days.

They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...

Folks really need to be careful with comparisons to catastrophes like Harvey. Harvey wreaked tremendous destruction to both livelihoods and lives. If this forum becomes little more than a place for hyperbolic prognostications it will do no one any good, including those who are still scarred from storms like Harvey and Imelda. People need to take a cue from our local tv mets and relay perspectives and information in a thoughtful, calm, and measured manner.

[Katdaddy]

Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a portion the TX Coast this afternoon. The W drift is beginning
and seeing convection near the center.

From the NHC 10AM Advisory:

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas
to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast
later today or tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

[sau27]

As frustrating as it may be, I think this is going to come down to now-casting when it comes to rainfall. I don’t trust the models to fully accurately depict exactly where rain bands set up. As we know, it only takes one slow moving band to cause problems.

[davidiowx]

Looks like shear is still taking the convection to the NE.

[Ounce]

Highly unlikely. They’re only calling for 5” in the Houston area. We can get more rain than that in a single thunderstorm on occasion. I think that forecasted total of 5” is highly suspect though. Don’t see how we could only get that small of an amount of rain with it over us for 3 days.

They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...

Folks really need to be careful with comparisons to catastrophes like Harvey. Harvey wreaked tremendous destruction to both livelihoods and lives. If this forum becomes little more than a place for hyperbolic prognostications it will do no one any good, including those who are still scarred from storms like Harvey and Imelda. People need to take a cue from our local tv mets and relay perspectives and information in a thoughtful, calm, and measured manner.

Well said.
Harvey was a category 4 when landed at Rockport. Soooo much of a stretch to claim this is a Harvey.

[Cromagnum]

They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...

Folks really need to be careful with comparisons to catastrophes like Harvey. Harvey wreaked tremendous destruction to both livelihoods and lives. If this forum becomes little more than a place for hyperbolic prognostications it will do no one any good, including those who are still scarred from storms like Harvey and Imelda. People need to take a cue from our local tv mets and relay perspectives and information in a thoughtful, calm, and measured manner.

Well said.
Harvey was a category 4 when landed at Rockport. Soooo much of a stretch to claim this is a Harvey.

Wind speed does not always correlate with rain. Look at Ismelda and Allison.

[biggerbyte]

I was going to say the same thing. Catagory of a tropical system does not have to suggest anything other than wind speed. Rainfall from even just low pressure or a depression can be tremendous if it sits and does not move out. Dry air surrounding these systems effects rainfall more than anything.

[snowman65]

I believe today is the 1 year anniversary of Imelda.

[biggerbyte]

I also have to agree that giving the public the heads up on the potential for flooding if this system is progged to hang around. Being wrong is safer than being uninformed.

[Cpv17]

I was going to say the same thing. Catagory of a tropical system does not have to suggest anything other than wind speed. Rainfall from even just low pressure or a depression can be tremendous if it sits and does not move out. Dry air surrounding these systems effects rainfall more than anything.

Supposedly I’m hearing dry air could eat this system up as it nears Texas.

[Stormlover2020]

It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much

[Rip76]

It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much

It was ‘57 that said that.
I could totally see it as well.

[Cpv17]

It could but you listen to the storm 2 k people way much

It was ‘57 that said that.
I could totally see it as well.

Yeah that’s who I heard it from too.

[snowman65]

what happens when they run out of Greek names?

[Cromagnum]

I'm good with 5-10 inches of rain spread over a week. Lots of areas badly need it.