September 2020:

[weatherguy425]

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

Dry air southwesterly wind shear. But, storm structure is hard to predict and can certainly evolve over time even after landfall (if it happens). Like you said, a very slow movement post landfall can’t totally be ruled out yet. That could help focus additional rain-even if it is no longer a tropical system.

[Rip76]

Looks like a bit of convection may be trying to set up near the center as we speak.

[Cromagnum]

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

Dangerous to think we aren't getting anything from this.

[Cpv17]

Just as I suspected, the NHC shifted their cone further west. It now has it going inland instead of hugging the coastline.

[Dls2010r]

Is that good or bad?

[Rip76]

Is that good or bad?

For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)

[Dls2010r]

[quote=Dls2010r post_id=91499 time=<a href="tel:1600528820">1600528820</a> user_id=11447]
Is that good or bad?

For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)
[/quote]

[Cromagnum]

We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

[Cpv17]

We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

With it basically sitting over us for 2-3 days, I’m not sure how forecasted totals are as low as they are? Seems like they’d be much higher.

[Rip76]

From NWS

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and along the south Texas coast Sunday night.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 305 miles (495 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast to occur, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
- Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA incl. Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT with an intermdiate advisory at 1 p.m.CDT - www.hurricanes.gov

[Tx2005]

So are we looking at Harvey part 2 in terms of rain in the Houston area? That track sure seems pretty similar.

[Cpv17]

So are we looking at Harvey part 2 in terms of rain in the Houston area? That track sure seems pretty similar.

Highly unlikely. They’re only calling for 5” in the Houston area. We can get more rain than that in a single thunderstorm on occasion. I think that forecasted total of 5” is highly suspect though. Don’t see how we could only get that small of an amount of rain with it over us for 3 days.

[TexasBreeze]

Similar track, but Harvey was much more organized and stronger with much more moisture surrounding it. Beta has none of that.

[Scott747]

Current track has a hurricane approaching Matagorda Bay on Monday and then weakening to a TS as it makes landfall Tuesday morning at Palacios.

Picks up speed as it moves thru the coastal counties on Wednesday with 50 kt winds and into sw la Thursday.

[davidiowx]

I’m surprised with that new track they just issued they haven’t issued TS warnings or hurricane watches further inland (Ft Bend, Wharton, all of Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, etc. counties)

[Cpv17]

Similar track, but Harvey was much more organized and stronger with much more moisture surrounding it. Beta has none of that.

It’s still forecasted to become a hurricane. It’s bound to have more moisture with it than to only give us 5” sitting on top of us for 3 or so days. That’s unheard of imo.

[Scott747]

Too bad recon isn't out there right now. With the shear slacking off it really has exploded these last few hours. Good thing shear is forecasted to increase as it nears the coast along with dry air...

[snowman65]

So are we looking at Harvey part 2 in terms of rain in the Houston area? That track sure seems pretty similar.

Highly unlikely. They’re only calling for 5” in the Houston area. We can get more rain than that in a single thunderstorm on occasion. I think that forecasted total of 5” is highly suspect though. Don’t see how we could only get that small of an amount of rain with it over us for 3 days.

They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the naked swirl got covered up. Gonna be interesting to see what the next 24 hours do.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Cpv17]

So are we looking at Harvey part 2 in terms of rain in the Houston area? That track sure seems pretty similar.

Highly unlikely. They’re only calling for 5” in the Houston area. We can get more rain than that in a single thunderstorm on occasion. I think that forecasted total of 5” is highly suspect though. Don’t see how we could only get that small of an amount of rain with it over us for 3 days.

They only called for 5" for Imelda for us...we got 30"+....so..yeah, it's likely...

That’s why I said I think it’s suspect. I think it could be way more than 5” unless dry air eats it up and we get a naked swirl over us.