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Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:06 pm
by Rip76
Recent recon data suggests that #Barry is resuming slight pressure falls, down to 1003mb.Light easterlies showing up south of 28N, indicating a SW nudge to the centroid position. Position tonight will matter for ultimate landfall location and total time spent over the ocean. pic.twitter.com/9u2EvdSr5I
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 11, 2019
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm
by sau27
UKMET: "Guys, guys, just hear me out here - now I think I may be on to something"
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm
by tireman4
Andrew, question...that huge blob off our coast...is it slowly matriculating our way? It seems as though it is
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:10 pm
by sau27
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm
Andrew, question...that huge blob off our coast...is it slowly matriculating our way? It seems as though it is
I think its in the process of dying. Lots of outflow coming from it and its tops are getting awful wispy.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:12 pm
by snowman65
when is the next big update?
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:18 pm
by tireman4
4 pm...from NHC....
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:19 pm
by Texaspirate11
sau27 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm
UKMET: "Guys, guys, just hear me out here - now I think I may be on to something"
iz u making fun of my ukmet? LOL
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:22 pm
by Texaspirate11
the uk nailed katrina....just fyi
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:22 pm
by Andrew
So far all who are wondering why the UKMET keeps pushing it west, it all has to do with upper-level ridging over the Rockies. Below, I have attached an image with the WPC forecast (purple), GFS (green), and UKMET (orange) all plotted for 60 hours out. Notice how strong and extended east the ridging over the Rockies is. No other model (including the WPC forecast) shows a 594 dam ridge from the Rockies to the SE U.S. This is what will need to be monitored over the next day to see which model is closest to the actual solution. To see this type of disparity this close to landfall is actually very amazing.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:23 pm
by Pas_Bon
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:22 pm
the uk nailed katrina....just fyi
Those redcoats are simply trying to take America back.....don't let them fool you. This may be a Trojan horse for Lord Cornwallis and his infantry......
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:25 pm
by Andrew
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:08 pm
Andrew, question...that huge blob off our coast...is it slowly matriculating our way? It seems as though it is
The center of the system is still slowly moving west, but there is some northerly shear to deal with so that is why you may be noticing that.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:27 pm
by tireman4
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:22 pm
So far all who are wondering why the UKMET keeps pushing it west, it all has to do with upper-level ridging over the Rockies. Below, I have attached an image with the WPC forecast (purple), GFS (green), and UKMET (orange) all plotted for 60 hours out. Notice how strong and extended east the ridging over the Rockies is. No other model (including the WPC forecast) shows a 594 dam ridge from the Rockies to the SE U.S. This is what will need to be monitored over the next day to see which model is closest to the actual solution. To see this type of disparity this close to landfall is actually very amazing.
And for UKMET to stick to its guns all along, being the outlier in many cases, is extraordinary, I think. Yeah, this will be interesting.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:30 pm
by Texaspirate11
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:36 pm
by tireman4
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:22 pm
So far all who are wondering why the UKMET keeps pushing it west, it all has to do with upper-level ridging over the Rockies. Below, I have attached an image with the WPC forecast (purple), GFS (green), and UKMET (orange) all plotted for 60 hours out. Notice how strong and extended east the ridging over the Rockies is. No other model (including the WPC forecast) shows a 594 dam ridge from the Rockies to the SE U.S. This is what will need to be monitored over the next day to see which model is closest to the actual solution. To see this type of disparity this close to landfall is actually very amazing.
Thank you for sharing Andrew. We appreciate that. Our Met 101 class for the day.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:39 pm
by davidiowx
The ensembles all initialize at possible center locations right? Or are the ensembles just confused on where the center is? Looks like they are everywhere on that map..
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:45 pm
by djmike
Did the Euro Ensembles shift west?
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:51 pm
by sau27
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:45 pm
Did the Euro Ensembles shift west?
Slightly, but not a ton.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:53 pm
by davidiowx
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:45 pm
Did the Euro Ensembles shift west?
Maybe a tad, if you click the link Texaspirate11 posted, you can go to the model run section and change the runs. If anything, it appears this most recent run has more of the ensembles clustered into LA.
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:57 pm
by tireman4
Re: July 2019: Tracking Tropical Storm Barry
Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:59 pm
by tireman4
