Tropical Depression Isaac:

[michmich]

Yes, everything is smooth as butter. The old board would have most likely up chucked.

And you hit post #1000, bb.

Thanks for this board. It's an invaluable source of information!

[Alvin Girl]

Question for Jeff: Do you think that *if* we have a scenario where this thing actually heads towards the TX coast we will still be looking at a Wed/Thu landfall or sometime later? Or is it still too early to tell?

Not sure what to make of it, but wunderground has an 80% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday for Houston. I don't recall any rain being in the forecast earlier in the day for this week.

I see that too for Thursday, but then Friday 0%?

[wxman666]

Briefly got a 500 (Internal Server) Error but it went right back up.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, everything is smooth as butter. The old board would have most likely up chucked.

And you hit post #1000, bb.

Thanks for this board. It's an invaluable source of information!

Ding ding. Do I win a prize?

[rselby0654]

Not sure if my other post worked or not. My name is Randall and I've visited this board frequently over the years I have several concerns with Isaac. 1. It is an I storm like Ike 2. It's path is virtually identical with the 1900 Hurricane that blasted Galveston as a Category 4. The most reliable tropical model as of this year--the gfs--has been trending west.

[biggerbyte]

I spoke too soon. The server just up chucked. It went down for a moment. We have a lot of people on right now. Up, or down, slow or fast, I wish Dan could be here.

[cisa]

I spoke too soon. The server just up chucked. It went down for a moment. We have a lot of people on right now. Up, or down, slow or fast, I wish Dan could be here.

It's not the same without him.

[Rip76]

Not sure if my other post worked or not. My name is Randall and I've visited this board frequently over the years I have several concerns with Isaac. 1. It is an I storm like Ike 2. It's path is virtually identical with the 1900 Hurricane that blasted Galveston as a Category 4. The most reliable tropical model as of this year--the gfs--has been trending west.

Also, isn't Ike short for Isaac?

[jeff]

Question for Jeff: Do you think that *if* we have a scenario where this thing actually heads towards the TX coast we will still be looking at a Wed/Thu landfall or sometime later? Or is it still too early to tell?

IF it were to follow the GFS track, we are still looking about 72 hours out to landfall across C LA, and then a slower motion toward the WNW. TS force winds would come in earlier due to the large size...so sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday for the onset of adverse conditions.

[PaulEInHouston]

Question for Jeff: Do you think that *if* we have a scenario where this thing actually heads towards the TX coast we will still be looking at a Wed/Thu landfall or sometime later? Or is it still too early to tell?

Not sure what to make of it, but wunderground has an 80% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday for Houston. I don't recall any rain being in the forecast earlier in the day for this week.

I see that too for Thursday, but then Friday 0%?

No disrespect to WUnderground, but the NWS has no forecasts at this time of 80% chance of thunderstorms for Thursday for Houston or BPT! I could see NWS slowly upping chances as/if models shift farther West, but I would rely on NWS and not TWC or WU!

[ticka1]

Well this is encouraging that Isaac is having difficulties. That means it will take him more time to ramp up and not finding a LLC easily is even better. I know he looked good on satellite tonight but each passing minute/hour he is not bombing out is good for less intensity.

Andrew will you be here tonight to post the results of the GFS forecast run after 1045? Or someone else - Paul?

This goes to say - I appreciate everyone on this board and all the posts. This is what a weather community is about...I do miss Dan but I know he is looking down on us watching Isaac!

[rselby0654]

Not sure if my other post worked or not. My name is Randall and I've visited this board frequently over the years I have several concerns with Isaac. 1. It is an I storm like Ike 2. It's path is virtually identical with the 1900 Hurricane that blasted Galveston as a Category 4. The most reliable tropical model as of this year--the gfs--has been trending west.

Also, isn't Ike short for Isaac?

OMG Yes Ike is short for Isaac! Now wouldn't that be ironic if he headed our way. In a sense you could say Ike was the weaker prelude and Isaac is the grand finale!

[Andrew]

Well this is encouraging that Isaac is having difficulties. That means it will take him more time to ramp up and not finding a LLC easily is even better. I know he looked good on satellite tonight but each passing minute/hour he is not bombing out is good for less intensity.

Andrew will you be here tonight to post the results of the GFS forecast run after 1045? Or someone else - Paul?

This goes to say - I appreciate everyone on this board and all the posts. This is what a weather community is about...I do miss Dan but I know he is looking down on us watching Isaac!

Ill be up.

[txflagwaver]

What concerns me is with Isaac weakening and becoming disorganized he will wander around the Gulf and be even harder to forecast. I went through Ike and really hope to not have to go through another hurricane...I honestly could not start over again.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well he isn't really weakening, just breathing

[ticka1]

What concerns me is with Isaac weakening and becoming disorganized he will wander around the Gulf and be even harder to forecast. I went through Ike and really hope to not have to go through another hurricane...I honestly could not start over again.

You and me both txflagwaver. I am not mentally ready for another hurricane.

[ajurcat]

Not sure if my other post worked or not. My name is Randall and I've visited this board frequently over the years I have several concerns with Isaac. 1. It is an I storm like Ike 2. It's path is virtually identical with the 1900 Hurricane that blasted Galveston as a Category 4. The most reliable tropical model as of this year--the gfs--has been trending west.

Also, isn't Ike short for Isaac?

OMG Yes Ike is short for Isaac! Now wouldn't that be ironic if he headed our way. In a sense you could say Ike was the weaker prelude and Isaac is the grand finale!

Told hubby today that this is an 'I' storm - not to count it out. Surprisingly, he agreed.

[Scott747]

Yes, it's the NAM. Plenty of data assimilated though.

0205Z MON AUG 27 2012


THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH THE FOLLOWING RAOB REPORTS
AVBL FOR INGEST...11 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...69 CONUS...9 MEXICAN
AND 8 CARIBBEAN.

ADDITIONALLY...24 DROPSONDE AND 5 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE
VICINITY OF TS ISAAC WERE AVBL FOR INGEST.

[cperk]

What concerns me is with Isaac weakening and becoming disorganized he will wander around the Gulf and be even harder to forecast. I went through Ike and really hope to not have to go through another hurricane...I honestly could not start over again.

I hope you don't have to go thru that again either,i live in Richmond and we got off lite compared to you guys.

[Karen]

I don't want to go through another one again either rode out Alicia, Aliison and Ike. My husband lost his job because of Ike. It is someone else's turn