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here's some model history for Ike http://www.hurricanecity.com/ikemodels.htm

not even close to being the same type of situation

check every other model, out to 10 days http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... atestrun=1

anyone living on the gulf coast should prepare every year, in advance

but you could probably bet what's left of your 401k that it's not coming near Texas




edit to soften my opinion

from KPRC http://www.click2houston.com/news/Tropi ... index.html

Aug 22 2012 06:19:24 AM CDT

One thing is almost certain: Isaac is not Houston's storm. While we can never say never, the odds of Isaac hitting the Texas coastline are very slim, so southeast Texas can breath a sigh of relief at this point.

heave a collective sigh, everyone

unome wrote:from KPRC http://www.click2houston.com/news/Tropi ... index.html

Aug 22 2012 06:19:24 AM CDT

One thing is almost certain: Isaac is not Houston's storm. While we can never say never, the odds of Isaac hitting the Texas coastline are very slim, so southeast Texas can breath a sigh of relief at this point.

heave a collective sigh, everyone

Given the model trends of the last 12 hours, I'm stunned that a professional meteorologist would make a proclamation like that. IMO, Texans can breath a sigh of relief about Isaac when it is well inland to our east. A very reliable global model (the Euro) suggests Isaac could be a central GOM threat and the 6z GFS trended further west as well. The "west" trend should concern all GOMers.

Honestly it is still too far out to know where landfall is - so it could go to Mexico to NYC.

I'm not sold it will strengthen - what happens if it remains weak?

That is the negative of the models folks become focused on their output when in actuality the weather will behave as it will.

Portastorm wrote:

unome wrote:from KPRC http://www.click2houston.com/news/Tropi ... index.html

Aug 22 2012 06:19:24 AM CDT

One thing is almost certain: Isaac is not Houston's storm. While we can never say never, the odds of Isaac hitting the Texas coastline are very slim, so southeast Texas can breath a sigh of relief at this point.

heave a collective sigh, everyone

Given the model trends of the last 12 hours, what an irresponsible statement to be making. Wow.

I agree Portastorm. I stand by my thoughts of "If you live on the coast, pay attention until the storm is gone"

Morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Isaac becomes a tropical storm and approaches the Leeward Islands

Weak ENE wind shear has relaxed overnight allowing a large ball of deep convection to develop directly over the low level circulation. The last recon mission early this morning did not indicate that this organization had translated into intensification yet with flight level winds of around 40-45kts so the intensity is held at 45mph. Since that time however the inner structure of the system appears to be getting better organized with deep convection maintaining itself and good banding to the west and SE of the system. There still appears to be a bit of dry air on the NE flank of the storm, but it is likely that the inner core is keeping this dry air out of the center of the system. Outflow is excellent to the W and S of the system and a little restricted to the E and NE of the system.

Track:
Global and hurricane forecasting models are in good agreement that Isaac will move nearly due west for the next 72 hours under the influence of a deep layer ridge over the central and SW Atlantic. This will take the storm across the Leeward Islands today and then south of Puerto Rico on Thursday. After 72 hours, Isaac will reach the western edge of the deep layer ridge as a trough digs southward over the SE US and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern will induce a turn toward the NW across the western part of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and then toward FL or the Bahamas. While the meteorological reasoning is sound, how quick and hard of a right turn Isaac takes in the 4-5 day period will determine what impacts the storm will have on the US coast. Due to the orientation of the FL peninsula and the positioning of the storm and forecast track, only a slight shift to the right of left could/will have a fairly big impact on any landfall locations. The dynamical consensus have been shifting ever so slightly eastward over the past 36 hours and it is possible that some additional eastward shifts will be needed. Now is a good time to remind everyone that the average forecast track error at Days 4 and 5 is around 225 miles.

Intensity:
Thus far the well organized pattern on satellite has not translated into intensification, but it is likely only a matter of time until the winds and central pressure begin to respond to the increased organization. Upper level outflow is increasing across the system as noted by the high level cirrus clouds peeling off to the west and south of the center which is helping to vent the inner core convection. Convection overnight has maintained itself very well compared to the up-down eruptions of the past few nights. Once the inner core consolidates there appears to be little to prevent intensification over the next 48 hours and Isaac will likely become a hurricane after passing the Leeward Islands. After 48 hours the system will begin to interact with the mountainous areas of the island of Hispaniola and it then becomes very important how much interaction the system has with this landmass. A track directly across the island will take a heavy toll on the system and organization of even major hurricanes in the past have struggled. The exact track of the inner core will be key to intensity in the longer range and with the error being still upwards of 100-150 miles at 72 hours there is several possibilities. After getting past Hispaniola and eastern Cuba the system will emerge into the very warm waters between the northern Lesser Antilles and SE FL. Upper level conditions look very favorable for intensification in this region with the potential for very favorable outflow with a trough digging down to the west of the system. Main question is what condition does the storm exit the islands in and how long does it take the inner core to rebuild if it is heavily disrupted. Current NHC forecast brings Isaac to a 90mph category 2 hurricane as it nears the SE FL coast. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is fairly low confidence.

rnmm wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

unome wrote:from KPRC http://www.click2houston.com/news/Tropi ... index.html

Aug 22 2012 06:19:24 AM CDT

One thing is almost certain: Isaac is not Houston's storm. While we can never say never, the odds of Isaac hitting the Texas coastline are very slim, so southeast Texas can breath a sigh of relief at this point.

heave a collective sigh, everyone

Given the model trends of the last 12 hours, what an irresponsible statement to be making. Wow.

I agree Portastorm. I stand by my thoughts of "If you live on the coast, pay attention until the storm is gone"

As you can see ... I did edit my post to temper my thoughts. LOL. But I agree with you. Nobody on the GOM coast should breath a sigh of relief right now.

The HPC clearly stated that the GFS is suffering from convective feedback issues and is too fast with the upper level pattern. While most reliable guidance is to our E, there will likely be a further shift left, or to the W over the next couple of days. It is unwise and not prudent to give anyone along the Gulf Coast an 'all clear' at this point. Additional RAOB data as well as high altitude G-IV RECON will no doubt help with future guidance output. Stay Tuned.

Aug 22 2012 06:19:24 AM CDT

One thing is almost certain: Isaac is not Houston's storm. While we can never say never, the odds of Isaac hitting the Texas coastline are very slim, so southeast Texas can breath a sigh of relief at this point.

heave a collective sigh, everyone [/quote]

Given the model trends of the last 12 hours, what an irresponsible statement to be making. Wow.[/quote]

I agree Portastorm. I stand by my thoughts of "If you live on the coast, pay attention until the storm is gone"[/quote]

As you can see ... I did edit my post to temper my thoughts. LOL. But I agree with you. Nobody on the GOM coast should breath a sigh of relief right now.[/quote]

Joe B posted on FB a pic of a model run - I can't open or see it upclose - does anyone know which model it is he posted?

Yeah, he posted the 0z Euro run which showed Isaac as a hurricane making landfall in Louisiana.

I am not a pro met here by any means, but correct me if I am wrong. Didn't IKEs models all head to FL 8-9 days before actual landfall? Im sure at that point too, everyone was saying that ridging/weaknesses and so forth would not send IKE to Texas (because we were reading and trusting the models) ...As much as I hate to say it, but we (including myself) STILL read way too much into these models and trust the direction that their pointing! Not saying Isaac will come to TX, but if their is EVER a storm knocking on the Gulfs door, every Gulf coast state needs to pay attention until landfall is confirmed!

Mobile, AL landfall.

12Z Tracks and Intensity:...shift to the left or W...

Here was IKE's forecast path on Sept 4, 2012. This goes to show how models and forecasts can change.

Entire Ike graphics...
pretty cool

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

they were all over the place.

unome wrote:here's some model history for Ike http://www.hurricanecity.com/ikemodels.htm

not even close to being the same type of situation

check every other model, out to 10 days http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... atestrun=1

anyone living on the gulf coast should prepare every year, in advance

but you could probably bet what's left of your 401k that it's not coming near Texas




edit to soften my opinion

BOO! BOO! WRONG!

While I think we all can appreciate your opinion, anyone who has lived in this area long enough should know better than that. I'm not sure if you are a meteorologist, but the person from KPRC REALLY should have known better. NEVER EVER take the models for granted, especially this far out. As I have mentioned time and time again, when there is a live system in the ocean that can threaten any of the Americas, everybody better pay attention. Conditions change daily, and forecasts can follow. The NHC has had to make a decision on Isaac based on what they feel are the most reliable models this year, and what they feel todays data will do with the eventual path of Isaac. That does not mean their thinking will not change as Isaac moves in closer. As far as Ike is concerned. No one is saying everything Isaac and Ike are identical. The point was that most everyone said no way for Texas with Ike. The Models were behaving just like they are now with Isaac. It was not until the last three days that everyone began to realize we were in trouble. I do NOT want that to ever happen again. I thought Ike was a big, big lesson for everyone. I was dead wrong.

Katdaddy wrote:Here was IKE's forecast path on Sept 4, 2012. This goes to show how models and forecasts can change.

So true Katdaddy....my point exactly I was trying to make above!

djmike wrote:I am not a pro met here by any means, but correct me if I am wrong. Didn't IKEs models all head to FL 8-9 days before actual landfall? Im sure at that point too, everyone was saying that ridging/weaknesses and so forth would not send IKE to Texas (because we were reading and trusting the models) ...As much as I hate to say it, but we (including myself) STILL read way too much into these models and trust the direction that their pointing! Not saying Isaac will come to TX, but if their is EVER a storm knocking on the Gulfs door, every Gulf coast state needs to pay attention until landfall is confirmed!

Excellent post. Right on.

Katdaddy wrote:Here was IKE's forecast path on Sept 4, 2012. This goes to show how models and forecasts can change.

10/4

Exactly my point..

Thank you.

Folks, those of you that didn't understand how we can be concerned over a storm such as Isaac, and its current forecasted path,
take a real good look here at history.

check out daily weather maps http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

comparing Isaac to Ike is pure hype & I applaud the kprc met for posting his honest, professional opinion

Sept 4 2008 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 80904.html


current http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 20820.html


also, comparing models as they were in '08 to their current config is apples/oranges, imo