Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm
Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance
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Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:43 pmActually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance
This system definitely has a cap. The conditions ahead of it aren't terrible, but not perfect either. Tropical Storm status seems to be a most-likely possibility.tireman4 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:37 pmweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:43 pmActually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance
How stoing it gets will be interesting
At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:58 pm It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing
Our time will come and when it does we will probably get too much rain all at once. It just right now we have to endure the worst Heat/Drought period we have seen in our lifetime.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:58 pm It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing
Consider it a win if we just catch a few solid isolated storms/rain bands, like WRF and some NAM runs have showed.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:58 pm It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing
Exactly.... and it takes a chip at the drought. We can be choosers, right now. Plenty of hurricane season left and continued signals in the longer range guidance that an eye will need to be kept on the southerner Gulf and we may see rain chances increase regardless of tropics by weeks two and three.don wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:19 pmAt least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:58 pm It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing
Or maybe ... you can work some of that "Beaumont magic" and pull a last-minute northeast trend? Just like Harvey, Imelda, June 2022's disturbance, etc?djmike wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:03 am I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.
We all need to say mean things to it at the same time and maybe we can beat it down enough to go away? I’m grabbing at straws here.
Haha I thought of that. Wondered where it will go after landfall. But qpf still shows about zip for the next 7, so I doubt any Harvey maneuver will happen. Not sure if I want a Harvey Redo because my home flooded but Id gladly take another Imelda. Loluser:null wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:59 pmOr maybe ... you can work some of that "Beaumont magic" and pull a last-minute northeast trend? Just like Harvey, Imelda, June 2022's disturbance, etc?djmike wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:03 am I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.