2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[MontgomeryCoWx]

LOL. Has 57 ever gotten egg on his face?

Yes...lol...he has whiffed before.

He probably went on a 600 mile bike ride this week in this heat. I think he’s a distant relative of the devil.

With that said, I like Chris. He has a wicked sense of humor.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see even the Euro control run is more north of its op run by a fair amount, OP run is northern Mexico and control run is south padre island, still far South of us, but also further north than the operational run, wonder if we are seeing the beginnings of a northern trend again?

[tireman4]

LOL. Has 57 ever gotten egg on his face?

Yes...lol...he has whiffed before.

He probably went on a 600 mile bike ride this week in this heat. I think he’s a distant relative of the devil.

With that said, I like Chris. He has a wicked sense of humor.

I have been the recipient of that " wicked" humor a time or two...lol

[brazoriatx]

Interesting to see even the Euro control run is more north of its op run by a fair amount, OP run is northern Mexico and control run is south padre island, still far South of us, but also further north than the operational run, wonder if we are seeing the beginnings of a northern trend again?

Bruh, didn't you see what 57 has already said? He's word is gospel. Just quit while you are ahead lol..I'm joking

[Stratton20]

I take back what i said, kinda the same as the last run, vorticity maps can be a little confusing to look at sometimes, i am interested to see if the GEFS ensemble is on too something because that was a very sizable shift north at 18z

[walsean1]

I take back what i said, kinda the same as the last run, vorticity maps can be a little confusing to look at sometimes, i am interested to see if the GEFS ensemble is on too something because that was a very sizable shift north at 18z

I don’t see how the models can see where the storm is going if there is no center of low pressure or basically a starting point

[don]

RGEM; Tropical storm into San Antonio Bay FWIW

Screenshot 2023-08-18 at 22-27-52 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

[Rip76]

RGEM; Tropical storm into San Antonio Bay FWIW

Screenshot 2023-08-18 at 22-27-52 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

Normally that location would give us all the rain.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS is farther north compared to last run which was in extreme north mexico, now its in south padre island, trending towards its ensembles more northerly solutions
CMC even further north around corpus christi

[don]

Big jump north on the 0Z Canadian model.Into Corpus

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_15.png

[djmike]

I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.

[don]

I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.

Yes for most of us to get some decent rain it needs to move north of Corpus. Just posting the trends. As several models have started trending back north. Question mainly is if the trend north will continue or not.

6Z ICON further north now into Corpus.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_29.png

[don]

12Z ICON

icon_mslp_pcpn_scus_27.png

[Cpv17]

It’s common for models to keep shifting at this range. By tomorrow we will have a much better idea.

[Stratton20]

I wonder why this hasnt being designated as an invest yet? Im not writing anything off until i see some hurricane nodel runs

[don]

12Z GFS into Baffin Bay

gfs_mslp_pcpn_scus_12.png

[don]

12Z RGEM stronger with a moderate Tropical Storm into Port Aransas.

On another note the ICON shows the crossover now that the EURO has been showing.

Screenshot 2023-08-19 at 11-00-09 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png

[cperk]

12Z RGEM stronger with a moderate Tropical Storm into Port Aransas.

On another note the ICON shows the crossover now that the EURO has been showing.

Screenshot 2023-08-19 at 11-00-09 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png

Yeah i saw that Euro run this morning showing that crossover system we will see if it continues to garner support.

[Cpv17]

12Z RGEM stronger with a moderate Tropical Storm into Port Aransas.

On another note the ICON shows the crossover now that the EURO has been showing.

Screenshot 2023-08-19 at 11-00-09 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png

Good!

[Stratton20]

the hurricane models are going to be interesting to look at, wonder why an invest hasnt been designated yet?