January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Kingwood36]

Now we just gotta get a little colder

[Andrew]

Not seeing much that would support anything other than a cold rain. Keep in mind some of those precip chart maps can be exaggerated, especially when temps at the surface are forecasted in the upper 30s/low 40s.

[stormlover]

still longs way out, models struggling with winter in texas, won't know till about 2 days out.

[tireman4]

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289
FXUS64 KHGX 181808
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.AVIATION...
Fog and low ceilings are persisting into the afternoon hours, but
we are also seeing some patchy areas of light rain/drizzle pop up
in the obs. Will keep CIGS mostly LIFR to start off with and only
improving things slowly to the lower end(s) of the MVFR range. As
for the pesky(stupid) fog, VIS should continue lift across inland
portions of the CWA but could remain a problem along the coast as
the sea fog lingers. Did not make a lot of changes with the progs
of scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA with the passage of the next cold
front tonight. Should be VFR by tomorrow morning with only strong
and gusty north winds as the main forecast issue. 41

[Cpv17]

Euro has temps in the low 20’s for next Sunday morning. Wouldn’t put much stock in it though. It has the brunt of the cold aimed towards the southeast instead of us. We just get a piece of it. Temps in Georgia and Alabama are in the negatives and single digits. Snow as far south as the Florida panhandle.

[BlueJay]

66F in the Woods. I don't think that we're going to see much warmer temperatures or the sun today.

[CRASHWX]

In the long range it does look to be cold for Rockies east all the way to the valley.

[redneckweather]

Yeah, ,but it's just flat out not cold enough....

It’s 5 days out. It could easily trend colder or warmer. Regardless, this is looking to be the best chance for a winter storm we’ve had all season. It’s not that far off. Keep your head up!

Stop looking at the models for a minute and show me where the "real cold" air is that will give us a chance of wintry precip?

[srainhoutx]

wocanmap0_e.jpg

[stormlover]

looks cold to me lol

[jasons2k]

That can’t be right. Maybe windchills? It’s currently 9F in Calgary, for example, not -15.

[Cpv17]

That can’t be right. Maybe windchills? It’s currently 9F in Calgary, for example, not -15.

Yeah I’m not sure either. I see 9F there as well.

[srainhoutx]

Calgary, AB



No Alerts in effect




▼ Current Conditions

Past 24 hours


Weather Radar


Satellite


Lightning



Mostly Cloudy



-14°C




°C
°F

Observed at:Calgary Int'l Airport Date: 2:00 PM MST Friday 18 January 2019

Condition:Mostly Cloudy Pressure:102.4 kPa Tendency:Falling
Temperature:-14.0°C Dew point:-16.1°C Humidity:84%
Wind:S 10 km/h Wind Chill:-20 Visibility:24 km

https://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html

[Kingwood36]

Calgary, AB



No Alerts in effect




▼ Current Conditions

Past 24 hours


Weather Radar


Satellite


Lightning



Mostly Cloudy



-14°C




°C
°F

Observed at:Calgary Int'l Airport Date: 2:00 PM MST Friday 18 January 2019

Condition:Mostly Cloudy Pressure:102.4 kPa Tendency:Falling
Temperature:-14.0°C Dew point:-16.1°C Humidity:84%
Wind:S 10 km/h Wind Chill:-20 Visibility:24 km

https://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html

BOOM

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 182124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

Surface analysis and observations seem to indicate a possible
warm front across the area as temperatures/dewpoints south of the
boundary are in the mid/upper 60s and north of the front
(basically Conroe northward) temperatures/dewpoints are in the low
60s with persistent fog. This gradient has blown our temperature
forecast out of the water but this warm front should be on the
move. Winds south of the boundary are running a good 12 knots with
gusts 20-25 knots.

Sea fog may be an problem along the near shore waters and the
bays through tonight until the cold front pushes through. There
may be a need for more dense fog advisories both for marine areas
and inland but will need to wait and see what happens since a cold
front will be moving into the area after midnight.

Upper level pattern is evolving as expected with a strong trough
developing in the Rockies about to move into the Southern Plains.
The aforementioned cold front is located back over the TX/OK
Panhandles. Water vapor imagery shows a weak jet streak in the
sub-tropical jet moving along the coast that is now supporting
some isolated storms along the coast that could affect KLBX and
KGLS the next few hours. Large scale ascent should increase over
Texas tonight into tomorrow morning but likely be slower than the
lift along the front (upper level lift out of phase with low level
lift). LLJ has increased as expected with the KHGX 88D VAD wind
profile showing 35-40kt winds 1k-3k ft above radar level (ARL)
which is mixing down since a few obs have had some wind gusts.
This is also allowing the elevated mixed layer to spread into the
area but given the convection along the coast, that warmer air
aloft may not quite be in the area yet.

HRRR/WRF model runs seem to have a good handle of the frontal
timing tonight and forecast followed that closely. Looks like a
line of convection should form along the pre-frontal trough after
midnight with some isolated thunderstorms. Convection should be
off the coast by 12Z with the front following just behind that.
Temperatures will be falling through the day. SPC day 1 outlook as
marginal risk N and NE of Houston. Right now just having a hard
time thinking there is a severe risk given the cap, limited
instability and out of phase dynamics.

Sunday morning still looks cold and models are trying to trend a
little colder than before. Low temperatures look to be below
freezing north of Houston and just above south of Houston.
Freezing line will likely meander through the city possibly
getting down to Wharton/Angleton but curve back north to Sugar
Land and Houston. Areas north of I-10 likely have a freeze but no
hard freeze. Winds will be decreasing but still could get some
wind chills in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The next front/rain event looks to be Tuesday through Wednesday
next week. A cold front moves into the area Tuesday night with an
upper level trough moving across the area at the same time. Right
now Tuesday night into Wednesday looks to be a cold rainy period
and high temperatures Wednesday may not reach the 50s. Right now
forecast high temperatures are low 50s along the coast and 40s
north of Houston. This seems to be a new model trend so I really
do not want to buy into completely but the GFS/ECMWF models are in
decent agreement. GFS may be a tad slower with the trough but
trends/timing very similar. Temperatures Thursday morning for lows
could be back in the 30s just above freezing.

Overpeck

&&


.MARINE...
We are still seeing some patchy sea fog over in spots over Galveston
Bay this afternoon...but we`ll have to keep an eye down the coast as
showers/thunderstorms approach from the SW. This along with increas-
ing onshore winds could help to keep the airmass unsettled enough to
prevent the re-development of widespread dense sea fog this evening.
Did hold off on re-issuing a Marine Dense Fog Advisory with the next
package...but did make changes for tomorrow (with the passage of the
strong cold front). Speaking of which, the next front is still fore-
cast to move off the coast early Sat morning. Models are keeping the
strong/gusty offshore flow in place and have gone with a Small Craft
Advisory for the nearshore waters, along with a Gale Warning for the
offshore waters tomorrow (mid morning until midnight). The bays will
likely see a period of SCA conditions from mid morning until the af-
ternoon. Will also be keeping tabs on whether or not a Low Water Ad-
visory will be needed by late Sat into Sun.

Winds will be decreasing Sun as high pressure builds into the region
with onshore winds returning Sun night as the high moves east of the
area. Moderate/strong onshore winds are expected Mon night into Tues
ahead of the next storm system. Another strong cold front should ac-
company this system and move into the coastal waters Tues night. The
return of strong offshore winds in the wake of this front will again
prompt an SCA or possibly a Gale Watch. 41


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 43 49 30 52 36 / 50 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 50 53 31 53 37 / 60 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 56 37 51 47 / 50 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday
night for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...41
MARINE...41
FIRE WEATHER...41

[TexasMetBlake]

Anybody see the 12z Euro for next week? Wow. Severe cold right through the center of the US.

[srainhoutx]

You gardeners in the typically "colder" locales of SE Texas might keep an eye on the temperature forecast for Sunday and Monday. The guidance did trend a degree or three 'cooler' than was forecast this morning for low temperatures. I do not see a hard freeze this time, but I have noticed a lot of greening up of some tender vegetation across the area. Just something to ponder tomorrow.

[Kingwood36]

Anybody see the 12z Euro for next week? Wow. Severe cold right through the center of the US.

Thought it have us a glancing blow and everything went to the east of us?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Anybody see the 12z Euro for next week? Wow. Severe cold right through the center of the US.

Thought it have us a glancing blow and everything went to the east of us?

Well it’s glancing when we are forecasted for 20 degrees and Atlanta is forecasted close to 0.

[Cpv17]

Anybody see the 12z Euro for next week? Wow. Severe cold right through the center of the US.

Thought it have us a glancing blow and everything went to the east of us?

The polar vortex basically takes over the central and northern plains & then once it hits Kansas it starts moving southeast instead of south towards Texas..it still hits us pretty hard (widespread low 20’s) but nothing compared to what they get east of us. That was the operational though. Not sure what the ensembles said. But wow, that was one heck of a cold run. Not sure if I’ve ever seen the Euro that far south with such extreme cold.