July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Andrew]

So, those storms coming down from Dallas.

The straight line winds are impressive - battering a weak part of our back fence. Hope that's not an outflow from dying storms, and it's mostly a bust.

This is our best chance of rain, given the eastward drift of the models. Euro 00z looking weaker and east-er so far

Where are you getting the 00z run?

[DoctorMu]

So, those storms coming down from Dallas.

The straight line winds are impressive - battering a weak part of our back fence. Hope that's not an outflow from dying storms, and it's mostly a bust.

This is our best chance of rain, given the eastward drift of the models. Euro 00z looking weaker and east-er so far

Where are you getting the 00z run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=45


Barry semi-bombs over Lake Ponchetrain.

Total bust tonight, and the outflow damages some of our back fence. Great. At least it cooled off.

[Andrew]

The straight line winds are impressive - battering a weak part of our back fence. Hope that's not an outflow from dying storms, and it's mostly a bust.

This is our best chance of rain, given the eastward drift of the models. Euro 00z looking weaker and east-er so far

Where are you getting the 00z run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=45


Barry semi-bombs over Lake Ponchetrain.

Total bust tonight, and the outflow damages some of our back fence. Great. At least it cooled off.

I meant where were you getting it so early .

Either way, ECMWF shows a pretty similar track to the 12z. Really the outlier here is the UKMET at this point.

[Katdaddy]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has still not strengthened overnight however its still forecast to become a hurricane before landfall along the LA Coast on Saturday. Continue to remain tropical weather aware across SE TX.

An except from this mornings National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Area Forecast Discussion:

Keep in mind, the system has not yet developed into a tropical cyclone and changes to the forecast track could change throughout today and Friday. Continue to closely monitor the development and track of the system as well as your local NWS and NHC forecasts. Now is the time to review your hurricane preparedness plan with your family and neighbors.

[djmike]

Call me crazy and Im sure im the only one, but Im still inclined to believe that this UKMET is determined and on to something bringing this more westward. Crazy but I still stick to my guns of a more westerly landfall. Not saying Texas, but still. SWLA landfall. Ive seen some crazy crazy things happen before and Im not giving up. UK may be the only outlier, but it’s determination is hard to discredit. Trough northward has not happened yet so as long as this thing is still moving west, well we will see... anyone else? I saw few others yesterday that stuck to their landfall, has yours changed? Thoughts?

[Cromagnum]

Call me crazy and Im sure im the only one, but Im still inclined to believe that this UKMET is determined and on to something bringing this more westward. Crazy but I still stick to my guns of a more westerly landfall. Not saying Texas, but still. SWLA landfall. Ive seen some crazy crazy things happen before and Im not giving up. UK may be the only outlier, but it’s determination is hard to discredit. Trough northward has not happened yet so as long as this thing is still moving west, well we will see... anyone else? I saw few others yesterday that stuck to their landfall, has yours changed? Thoughts?

Not giving up? Sounds like you want it to come here.

[snowman65]

Call me crazy and Im sure im the only one, but Im still inclined to believe that this UKMET is determined and on to something bringing this more westward. Crazy but I still stick to my guns of a more westerly landfall. Not saying Texas, but still. SWLA landfall. Ive seen some crazy crazy things happen before and Im not giving up. UK may be the only outlier, but it’s determination is hard to discredit. Trough northward has not happened yet so as long as this thing is still moving west, well we will see... anyone else? I saw few others yesterday that stuck to their landfall, has yours changed? Thoughts?

Mike it's starting to sound like you WANT this thing to come see us..lolol...Let it be let it be...

[srainhoutx]

What a beautiful red sky sunrise off to the East and noticeably cooler temperatures brought in by some Northerly breezes this morning across NW Harris County. Northerly wind shear and some drier air filtering into the broad area of low pressure located SSE of New Orleans has inhibited PTC #2 from organizing overnight. RECON has found some higher winds near TD status across the North side of the broad surface low, but nothing impressive. The heaviest storms and worst of the weather looks to be well of to the West and generally drifting W toward SW Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast. Morning water vapor imagery suggests an upper low in the Lower Rio Grande Valley may be influencing our weather a bit more than anticipated. Today will be interesting to watch unfold as I am not convinced we have seen all the surprises this storm system has up its sleeve. Oh, and I still would like some clarity on why there has not been any high altitude RECON missions. Seems to me that a situation like this with a close in home grown storm would be perfect for that valuable data, but that's just me.

[Pas_Bon]

Don’t look now, but there’s a new lemon out in the CV nether-regions.

[djmike]

Not at all wishing it to come this way. Im just saying the UK is determined and westward shift is also possible. Also saying that just because majority shifted east, I am not letting my guard down. Not at all wishing it to come this way and praying for the ones that do get it. We all somewhat had our “predictions “ yesterday and Im just stating that im sticking to my prediction. When yall were making predictions yesterday, im sure none of you were wishing that it came towards us. You were simply stating your predictions which is what im still doing. Will we gwt it? Probably not. Will it stay east? Probably. But until a storm is inland, never let your guard down.

[djmike]

What a beautiful red sky sunrise off to the East and noticeably cooler temperatures brought in by some Northerly breezes this morning across NW Harris County. Northerly wind shear and some drier air filtering into the broad area of low pressure located SSE of New Orleans has inhibited PTC #2 from organizing overnight. RECON has found some higher winds near TD status across the North side of the broad surface low, but nothing impressive. The heaviest storms and worst of the weather looks to be well of to the West and generally drifting W toward SW Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast. Morning water vapor imagery suggests an upper low in the Lower Rio Grande Valley may be influencing our weather a bit more than anticipated. Today will be interesting to watch unfold as I am not convinced we have seen all the surprises this storm system has up its sleeve. Oh, and I still would like some clarity on why there has not been any high altitude RECON missions. Seems to me that a situation like this with a close in home grown storm would be perfect for that valuable data, but that's just me.

I agree 100%. (Blue bold above)

[davidiowx]

Looks pretty disorganized right now. There is a vort generally heading toward the NOLA area (in red) which should dissipate I would think. Or is that the center? Recan has the center fixed south of there.. All of the convection is significantly further west than where Recon has the center so it will be interesting to see if this can even get its act together today.

[tireman4]

More model watching and waiting. I agree with Steve and Andrew, we still need to find a COC. I agree with Steve, I think there are more surprises. Be vigilant. Be prepared. Stay aware.

[srainhoutx]

Look for an Upgrade to Tropical Depression 2 at 10 AM.

Code: Select all

AL, 02, 2019071112, , BEST, 0, 277N, 885W, 30, 1005, TD

[davidiowx]

Looks like this is where they have the center now

[Kingwood36]

Doesnt look like it will affect us anymore..still have 4 months left in the season

[davidiowx]

Doesnt look like it will affect us anymore..still have 4 months left in the season

Until we get a defined center, this storm still has the capability to go anywhere from Texas to the Florida panhandle. Nothing is set it stone at this time, regardless of what the model outputs are. There are models still showing a western track and the GFS and Euro still have some ensembles that head towards Texas.

Click on the attachment to see animation.

[redneckweather]

Maybe it is just me but the models are no better than they were 15 years ago. Same song, different dance. Some are good for this, some are good for that and some are good for nothing so why do they even exist? lol The Euro was king on this one showing development early on but the Euro will probably be crap for the next one. Weird deal.


Carry on.lol

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner
12 mins ·
USAF mission is finding some 40-50mph winds in the central Gulf, but removed well away from the lowest pressure area.

Still fairly disorganized, but may be enough to call it a depression or storm shortly

[tireman4]

I cannot send the photo from Jeff's Facebook page, but it is well south..like 26N