December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011
- MontgomeryCoWx
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niiiiiiice for our friends along I-20... hoping I get to see some goodness in Longview
Team #NeverSummer
- srainhoutx
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I'm not too worried about temps. If the Canadian and Euro suggest moisture and lift across the Lone Star State, the 'finer details' will be worked out later. Meanwhile, rain chance for tonight into tomorrow look very encouraging.
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- srainhoutx
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Yeah. I was just about to mention that...Ed Mahmoud wrote: SPC did take away the slight risk...
...SERN TX/SRN LA EARLY THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NWD OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NRN MEXICO SYSTEM AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TX COAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINING LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH 22/12Z WITH DEVELOPING STORMS
LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 22/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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The 12Z Canadian suggests clouds and a bit better lift near Coastal Texas for Christmas Eve. Although moisture is meager further N, that model also has joined the Euro/GFS solution lingering some upper level energy back in Old Mexico during the long Holiday Weekend.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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12Z GFS Ensembles for Christmas Eve...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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HGX issues Drought Statement:
Code: Select all
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1120 AM CDT WED DEC 21 2011
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...THE WESTERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS VERY DRY...
...DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE...
SYNOPSIS...
RAIN...SO RARE TO COME BY DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER...CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DECEMBER RAINFALL IS STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT THE DEPARTURES ARE NOT EXTREME. THE
FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL HAS ALSO BEEN ENCOURAGING. THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE TRINITY AND WEST FORK OF THE SAN
JACINTO RIVERS TO FOSTER SOME GAINS IN AREA RESERVOIRS. LAKE HOUSTON
IS AT 100 PERCENT CAPACITY AND LAKE LIVINGSTON IS APPROACHING 89
PERCENT CAPACITY. BUT NOT ALL THE NEWS IS GOOD. AREAS WEST OF A
MADISONVILLE TO BAY CITY LINE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE SAME QUANTITY OF
RAIN AS POINTS TO THE EAST. EDNA HAS ONLY RECEIVED 0.05 INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH DECEMBER 20TH. PALACIOS...COLUMBUS AND SOMERVILLE HAVE
ALL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH DECEMBER 20TH.
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR RAIN COMING UP AND HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS
WILL RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN ON AN UPTICK SINCE OCTOBER 1ST. THE AREA
IS STILL VERY DRY BUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN GETTING RAIN SEMI
REGULARLY. THE EFFECTS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE BEEN POSITIVE BUT LONG
TERM DROUGHT INDICATORS STILL SHOW A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE RETURNING
TO ANY SENSE OF NORMALCY. BELOW ARE THE RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE
OCTOBER 1ST:
LOCATION 2011 RAIN 2011 PERCENT OF
10/1-12/20 TOTAL 2011 TOTAL
CITY OF HOUSTON 9.83 22.06 44.6
HOUSTON HOBBY 10.61 23.53 45.1
CITY OF GALVESTON 8.92 20.50 43.5
COLLEGE STATION 4.69 17.86 26.3
2011 IS COMING TO A CLOSE. HOW DRY HAS 2011 BEEN?
HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 20 FOR THE FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE SITES (AND DANEVANG):
JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 21
CITY OF HOUSTON COLLEGE DANEVANG GALVESTON
HOUSTON HOBBY STATION
17.66 1917 23.53 2011 16.66 1917 16.76 1917 20.50 2011
22.06 2011 26.14 1988 17.06 1988 17.86 1954 20.85 1956
22.54 1988 27.36 1956 17.86 2011 19.02 2011 21.03 1948
24.79 1901 27.66 1954 20.83 1948 20.22 1956 21.25 1927
26.30 1910 30.17 1931 22.79 1956 23.26 1963 21.41 1917
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR...THESE
TOTALS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE CITY OF
HOUSTON WILL PROBABLY FINISH AS THE THIRD DRIEST IN RECORDED HISTORY.
HOBBY AIRPORT WILL ENDURE IT'S DRIEST OR SECOND DRIEST YEAR ON
RECORD. COLLEGE STATION WILL ENDURE IT'S THIRD OR FOURTH DRIEST YEAR
ON RECORD AND 2011 WILL PROBABLY BE THE FOURTH DRIEST FOR DANEVANG.
THE CITY OF GALVESTON...DESPITE RECORDING IT'S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
THROUGH DECEMBER 21ST WILL LIKELY FINISH 2011 AS THE FOURTH DRIEST
YEAR ON RECORD.
FIVE ALL-TIME DRIEST CALENDAR YEARS ON RECORD
CITY OF HOUSTON COLLEGE DANEVANG GALVESTON
HOUSTON HOBBY STATION
17.66 1917 26.65 1988 16.66 1917 16.76 1917 21.40 1948
22.93 1988 28.32 1956 17.80 1988 18.85 1954 21.43 1917
27.09 1901 28.76 1954 21.17 1948 20.38 1956 21.84 1956
27.23 1951 31.31 1931 23.09 1956 23.29 1963 22.29 1954
28.08 1999 32.29 1963 24.62 1999 23.86 1951 23.40 1927
RAINFALL DEFICITS BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER HURRICANE IKE IN 2008.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL IN 2009 AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN 2010. THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING FOR SEVERAL
YEARS. DESPITE RECENT RAINS...HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT HAS OVER A 29
INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR THIS YEAR ALONE AND OVER A THREE FOOT
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE LAST THREE YEARS. GALVESTON IS
SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFICIT OVER 46 INCHES OVER THE LAST THREE
YEARS.
SITE NORMAL 2009 2010 2011* TOTAL
DEPARTURE
HOUSTON 47.84 47.01 42.72 22.06
-0.83 -5.12 -26.49 -32.44
HOU HOBBY 53.96 52.65 47.02 23.53
-1.34 -6.94 -29.74 -38.02
COL STATION 39.67 38.98 27.78 17.86
-0.69 -11.89 -21.05 -33.63
GALVESTON 43.84 37.16 33.14 20.50
-6.68 -10.70 -29.15 -46.53
* 2009-10 YEAR TO DATE NORMALS ARE USING 1971-2000
* 2011 YEAR TO DATE NORMALS ARE NOW USING 1981-2010
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY SINCE THE END OF 2008...THE DROUGHT
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2010. THE
SPRING...SUMMER AND FIRST HALF OF FALL 2011 WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST ON
RECORD. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED BUT MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO
REPLENISH AREA RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS.
DESPITE MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER
AND NOVEMBER...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE
INSTEAD OF THE 25TH. SLOW PROGRESS...BUT IT IS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER.
HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM OCTOBER 1 2010 THROUGH DECEMBER 20 2011.
LOCATION OCT-SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
2010-11 2011 2011 2011
BELLVILLE 13.34 1.64 1.88 0.40 17.26
NORMALS 40.49 3.89 4.18 2.39 50.95
DEPARTURE -27.15 -2.25 -2.30 -1.99 -33.69
BRENHAM 16.16 1.72 3.86 0.72 22.46
NORMALS 43.66 5.09 4.28 2.57 55.60
DEPARTURE -27.50 -3.37 -0.42 -1.85 -33.14
COL STATION 14.88 0.96 2.41 1.32 19.57
NORMALS 38.99 4.91 3.22 2.08 49.20
DEPARTURE -24.11 -3.95 -0.81 -0.76 -29.63
COLUMBUS 16.16 1.81 2.82 0.28 21.07
NORMALS 43.21 4.68 4.42 2.37 54.68
DEPARTURE -27.05 -2.87 -1.60 -2.09 -33.61
CONROE 17.90 1.76 3.78 1.70 25.14
NORMALS 48.21 5.20 5.32 2.99 61.72
DEPARTURE -30.31 -3.44 -1.54 -1.29 -36.58
CROCKETT 22.34 1.55 3.23 2.35 29.47
NORMALS 44.60 4.76 4.09 3.00 56.45
DEPARTURE -22.26 -3.21 -0.86 -0.65 -26.98
DANEVANG 21.16 2.20 2.43 0.13 25.92
NORMALS 44.49 4.76 4.05 2.33 55.63
DEPARTURE -23.33 -2.56 -1.62 -2.20 -29.71
GALVESTON 21.98 4.60 2.36 1.96 30.90
NORMALS 44.28 5.52 4.51 2.41 56.72
DEPARTURE -22.30 -0.92 -2.15 -0.45 -25.82
FREEPORT 18.12 2.05 2.02 2.76 24.95
NORMALS 49.43 4.81 4.83 2.63 61.70
DEPARTURE -31.31 -2.76 -2.81 +0.13 -36.75
HOU HOBBY 23.57 5.43 2.85 2.33 34.18
NORMALS 54.07 5.99 4.32 2.65 67.03
DEPARTURE -30.50 -0.56 -1.47 -0.32 -32.85
HOUSTON 18.00 3.36 4.70 1.77 27.83
NORMALS 47.56 5.70 4.34 2.52 60.12
DEPARTURE -29.56 -2.34 +0.36 -0.75 -32.29
HUNTSVILLE 15.35 2.00 3.80 1.20 22.35
NORMALS 47.15 4.80 4.44 2.67 59.06
DEPARTURE -31.80 -2.80 -0.64 -1.47 -36.71
KATY 15.83 3.49 3.84 1.73 24.89
NORMALS 42.58 4.82 4.89 2.81 55.10
DEPARTURE -26.75 -1.33 -1.05 -1.08 -30.21
LIVINGSTON 17.77 3.13 2.71 2.85 26.46
NORMALS 51.11 4.85 5.15 3.53 64.64
DEPARTURE -33.34 -1.72 -2.44 -0.68 -38.18
MADISONVILLE 13.53 1.94 2.86 1.47 19.80
NORMALS 43.18 4.84 4.38 2.94 55.34
DEPARTURE -29.65 -2.90 -1.52 -1.47 -35.54
MATAGORDA 13.18 3.80 4.05 3.32 24.35
NORMALS 43.05 4.38 3.86 1.91 53.20
DEPARTURE -29.87 -0.58 +0.19 +1.41 -28.85
SOMERVILLE 14.83 0.85 3.26 0.33 19.27
NORMALS 48.92 4.47 3.53 2.33 59.25
DEPARTURE -34.09 -3.62 -0.27 -2.00 -39.98
TOMBALL 12.49 2.47 3.06 1.93 19.95
NORMALS 48.92 5.30 4.72 2.63 61.57
DEPARTURE -36.43 -2.83 -1.66 -0.70 -41.62
WASH ST PARK 15.17 1.69 5.93 0.46 23.25
NORMALS 40.92 4.63 3.80 2.54 51.89
DEPARTURE -25.75 -2.94 +2.13 -2.08 -28.64
HERE ARE SOME NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER RAINFALL TOTALS FOR OTHER
COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS:
LOCATION NOV NOV DEP
NORMAL
ANAHUAC 1.97 4.21 -2.24
ANGLETON 2.86 4.53 -1.67
BAY CITY 3.46 4.25 -0.79
CLEVELAND 8.53 5.68 +2.85
EDNA 0.28 3.68 -3.40
EL CAMPO 1.06 5.20 -4.14
HOU NWS 3.07 4.91 -1.84
HOU WESTBURY 1.99 4.88 -2.89
PALACIOS 2.11 3.96 -1.85
RICHMOND 1.54 5.22 -3.68
SUGARLAND 2.17 4.59 -2.42
W COLUMBIA 3.90 NA NA
WHARTON 1.01 4.79 -3.78
LOCATION DEC DEC DEP
NORMAL
ANAHUAC 2.77 3.41 -0.64
ANGLETON 2.22 2.80 -0.58
BAY CITY 1.11 2.69 -1.58
CLEVELAND 2.87 3.35 -0.48
EDNA 0.05 2.00 -1.95
EL CAMPO 0.78 2.60 -1.82
HOU NWS 1.81 2.57 -0.76
HOU WESTBURY 2.42 2.88 -0.46
PALACIOS 0.17 1.76 -1.59
RICHMOND 1.04 2.73 -1.69
SUGARLAND 1.94 2.69 -0.75
W COLUMBIA 3.70 NA NA
WHARTON 0.53 2.49 -1.96
DROUGHT AND HEAT GENERALLY GO HAND IN HAND. THE SIX MONTH PERIOD
OF APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER WAS EASILY THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 2011 IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE
HOUSTON HOBBY AND COLLEGE STATION AND TIED FOR THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. IT IS CURRENTLY THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD
FOR THE CITY OF GALVESTON. NOVEMBER WAS WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER AGAIN FAVORS WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
THROUGH DECEMBER 21ST FOR THE FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS:
JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 20
CITY OF HOUSTON COLLEGE CITY OF
HOUSTON HOBBY STATION GALVESTON
72.5 2011 73.0 2011 72.4 2011 73.2 2006
72.5 1962 72.3 1998 71.5 1933 73.0 2011
72.1 1933 71.9 2006 71.3 1911 72.7 1927
72.0 1927 71.8 2000 71.0 1927 72.7 1995
71.9 1965 71.7 2009 70.9 2009 72.6 2000
AS OF DECEMBER 20TH 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUED TO
SHOWED SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN AREA OF
D-3 OR EXTREME DROUGHT IS EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
REPLACING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA
SINCE LAST APRIL. AREAS EAST OF A LAKE LIVINGSTON TO PALACIOS LINE
ARE GENERALLY CLASSIFIED AS D-3. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE ARE STILL
CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. A SMALL POCKET OF D-2 WAS
INTRODUCED OVER NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY THIS WEEK BUT MOST OF
LIBERTY COUNTY REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITH EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DUE TO LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS.
BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF DECEMBER 20TH:
D-4 D-3
AUSTIN LIBERTY
BRAZORIA MATAGORDA
BRAZOS POLK
BURLESON
CHAMBERS
COLORADO
FORT BEND
GALVESTON
GRIMES
HARRIS
HOUSTON
JACKSON
MADISON
MONTGOMERY
SAN JACINTO
TRINITY
WALKER
WALLER
WASHINGTON
WHARTON
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS
BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
A WATER EMERGENCY.
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS
OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
WATER DEFICITS.
FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
WINTER FORAGES WERE EMERGING AND SHOWING SOME GROWTH FROM RECENT
RAINS. STOCK PONDS BEGAN TO RETAIN WATER OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS.
RYEGRASS WAS PLANTED. HARVESTING OF RATOON RICE WAS COMPLETE. THE
FREEZE IN LATE NOVEMBER SENT NATIVE PASTURES INTO DORMANCY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE IS ESTIMATING THAT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100
AND 500 MILLION TREES MAY HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF THIS YEARS
DROUGHT. ONE OF THE AREAS HARDEST HIT WAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
MORTALITY RATE OF LOBLOLLY PINES WAS EXTENSIVE IN MONTGOMERY...
HARRIS...GRIMES AND MADISON COUNTIES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG/TODAY (ALL LOWER CASE).
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AS OF DECEMBER 21ST 2011...100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS BETWEEN 26 AND
50 PERCENT WEST OF A BRENHAM TO BAY CITY LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE...
100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. THE MOISTURE
CONTENT IN 1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL WAS GREATER THAN 21 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER WHERE THE AREA WAS JUST 30
DAYS EARLIER. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE DAY AVERAGES SHOW A LOW
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE HELPED TO DECREASE KBDI VALUES
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. ALMOST HALF OF THE COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW HAVE KBDI VALUES LESS THAN 500.
KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE COUNTY WITH KBDI VALUES
EXCEEDING 700. KBDI VALUES OF 800 INDICATE THAT A COLUMN OF SOIL IS
DEVOID OF MOISTURE TO A DEPTH OF EIGHT INCHES.
BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (12/20/2011):
700-800 600-700 500-600 400-500 300-400 200-300
JACKSON COLORADO AUSTIN BRAZORIA GRIMES LIBERTY
WHARTON BRAZOS CHAMBERS HARRIS SAN JACINTO
BURLESON MADISON MONTGOMERY
FORT BEND WALKER
GALVESTON WALLER
HOUSTON
MATAGORDA
WASHINGTON
(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG).
RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED TO MOISTEN GROUND FUELS AND THIS HELPED TO
LOWER THE THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. MANY COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED THEIR
BURN BANS SINCE THE LAST DROUGHT STATEMENT. CURRENTLY...ONLY FOUR
OF THE 23 COUNTIES THAT COMPRISE SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE A BURN BAN IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MANY COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED THEIR BURN BANS
AND CURRENTLY...ONLY 121 OF THE 254 COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE A
BURN BAN IN EFFECT. THIS IS A REDUCTION FROM THE PEAK OF 248
COUNTIES WITH BURN BANS IN EFFECT OVER THE SUMMER.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON DECEMBER 20TH
2011...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
FORT BEND... HARRIS...JACKSON AND WHARTON.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE RESERVOIRS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LAKE
SOMERVILLE IS STILL NEAR 38 PERCENT CAPACITY AND LAKE TEXANA HAS
NOW FALLEN BELOW 38 PERCENT CAPACITY. LAKE HOUSTON HAS RISEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FLOW FROM LAKE
CONROE.
HERE ARE THE LATEST RESERVOIR LEVELS (MILLIONS ACRE FEET) AS OF
12/21/11:
WATERSHED CONSERVATION STORAGE PERCENT
CAPACITY CAPACITY
LAKE LIVINGSTON 1.742 1.536 88.2
LAKE CONROE 0.416 0.276 66.5
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 0.017 0.012 72.7
LAKE HOUSTON 0.129 0.129 100.0
LAKE SOMERVILLE 0.147 0.056 38.1
LAKE TEXANA 0.153 0.057 37.6
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER THE NORTH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AROUND DECEMBER 30TH OR 31ST.
THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 15TH 2011 NOW VALID
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH OFFERS MORE OF THE SAME. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SPRING WITH
MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A HINT OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE. THE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY FAVORS WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
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- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Euro stays the course, predicts Permian Basin White Christmas.
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- srainhoutx
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Interestingly the 12Z Euro keeps clouds and some moisture around until Monday...
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- wxman57
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Yes, Euro still indicating some light snow out in far west Texas on Saturday, but the airmass dries out considerably by the time the system moves across northeast Texas (Dallas to Tyler). Probably nothing there. And just persistent light to moderate rain here on Christmas Eve with temps holding in the mid 40s.
Canadian and GFS are considerably drier for west Texas on Christmas Eve. Just light rain across SE TX with a weak wave in the Gulf (and temps in the 40s here). Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looks reasonable as far as temps:
Canadian and GFS are considerably drier for west Texas on Christmas Eve. Just light rain across SE TX with a weak wave in the Gulf (and temps in the 40s here). Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looks reasonable as far as temps:
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- srainhoutx
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A bit intriguing to see a Coastal low develops on the Euro. That feature has not been present on any guidance I've seen, but does seem reasonable with a persistent coastal trough...wxman57 wrote:Yes, Euro still indicating some light snow out in far west Texas on Saturday, but the airmass dries out considerably by the time the system moves across northeast Texas (Dallas to Tyler). Probably nothing there. And just persistent light to moderate rain here on Christmas Eve with temps holding in the mid 40s.
Canadian and GFS are considerably drier for west Texas on Christmas Eve. Just light rain across SE TX with a weak wave in the Gulf (and temps in the 40s here). Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looks reasonable as far as temps:
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- srainhoutx
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Updated Afternoon QPF Dicussion from the HPC regarding tonight into tomorrow:
CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY..
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WIDESPREAD AREAL AVG .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS
DEPICTED ACRS THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS LIKELY
WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
142 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011
...VALID 18Z WED DEC 21 2011 - 00Z FRI DEC 23 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...CNTRL TO NRN LA...LARGE
PORTIONS OF MS AND AL...
CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM THE CNTRL TO
UPR COAST OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AREAS.
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WITH FFG VALUES HIGH ACRS THESE AREAS AND THE
EXPECTED QUICK ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY PCPN...A THREAT AREA
WAS NOT DEPICTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS OVER A FEW HOURS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED 2"+ AMTS FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX COASTAL
REGION...NRN TO CNTRL LA...INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.
CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY..
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WIDESPREAD AREAL AVG .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS
DEPICTED ACRS THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS LIKELY
WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
142 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011
...VALID 18Z WED DEC 21 2011 - 00Z FRI DEC 23 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...CNTRL TO NRN LA...LARGE
PORTIONS OF MS AND AL...
CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM THE CNTRL TO
UPR COAST OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AREAS.
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WITH FFG VALUES HIGH ACRS THESE AREAS AND THE
EXPECTED QUICK ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY PCPN...A THREAT AREA
WAS NOT DEPICTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS OVER A FEW HOURS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED 2"+ AMTS FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX COASTAL
REGION...NRN TO CNTRL LA...INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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HPC Final Afternoon Update regarding the Holiday Weekend into early next week:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011
VALID 12Z SAT DEC 24 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 28 2011
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) WILL BE QUITE POSITIVE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST
OF THE HIGH LATITUDES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN
A 5 DAY MEAN IN THE MID LATITUDES WILL BE THE SWRN STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND THE NERN STATES AROUND DAY 7.
UPDATED PRELIMS HAD USED THE ORIGINAL DAYS 3-4 GRAPHICS THEN
SWITCHED TO ENTIRELY ECENS/GEFS MEAN BY TUE/WED DAYS 6-7...WHEN
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BECOME
MORE UNRELIABLE. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW MODELS STILL HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING A POSITIVE TILTED MEAN TROF ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES...WITH THE GEFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS INITIALLY NW OF THE
ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TILTED MEAN TROF.
HOWEVER THE GEFS MEAN BY DAY 5 BEGINS TO SHEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECENS MEAN...SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION WITH ENERGY FARTHER N. THE NEW 12Z GEFS MEAN STILL
SHOWS THIS INTERACTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BY DAY 4...ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MADE A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GRT LAKES ON DAY 4.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES
HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED IN NEW MODEL RUNS UNTIL MON/TUE. IN THIS
CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF
THE SHORT RANGE IS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT THE 00Z/20 ECMWF
RUN....SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS THAT MIGHT HAVE
BROUGHT A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY/SRN NEW ENG.
12Z FINAL PROGS SUPPRESSED THIS FEATURE EVEN MORE THAN THE
PRELIMS. BY DAY 5...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A
TENDENCY FOR AN UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER W TX/NM. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FEATURE FORMING ATOP DRY HIGH PRES...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN
GULF ON MON DAY 5. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS FOR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...FINAL GRAPHICS STAYED WITH THE BLEND USED IN THE
UPDATED PRELIM...STARTING OFF WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/20 AND 00Z
/21 ECMWF RUNS AND SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 ECENS
AND GEFS MEANS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011
VALID 12Z SAT DEC 24 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 28 2011
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) WILL BE QUITE POSITIVE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST
OF THE HIGH LATITUDES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN
A 5 DAY MEAN IN THE MID LATITUDES WILL BE THE SWRN STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND THE NERN STATES AROUND DAY 7.
UPDATED PRELIMS HAD USED THE ORIGINAL DAYS 3-4 GRAPHICS THEN
SWITCHED TO ENTIRELY ECENS/GEFS MEAN BY TUE/WED DAYS 6-7...WHEN
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BECOME
MORE UNRELIABLE. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW MODELS STILL HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING A POSITIVE TILTED MEAN TROF ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES...WITH THE GEFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS INITIALLY NW OF THE
ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TILTED MEAN TROF.
HOWEVER THE GEFS MEAN BY DAY 5 BEGINS TO SHEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECENS MEAN...SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION WITH ENERGY FARTHER N. THE NEW 12Z GEFS MEAN STILL
SHOWS THIS INTERACTION TO SOME EXTENT.
BY DAY 4...ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MADE A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GRT LAKES ON DAY 4.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES
HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED IN NEW MODEL RUNS UNTIL MON/TUE. IN THIS
CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF
THE SHORT RANGE IS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT THE 00Z/20 ECMWF
RUN....SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS THAT MIGHT HAVE
BROUGHT A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY/SRN NEW ENG.
12Z FINAL PROGS SUPPRESSED THIS FEATURE EVEN MORE THAN THE
PRELIMS. BY DAY 5...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A
TENDENCY FOR AN UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER W TX/NM. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FEATURE FORMING ATOP DRY HIGH PRES...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN
GULF ON MON DAY 5. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS FOR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...FINAL GRAPHICS STAYED WITH THE BLEND USED IN THE
UPDATED PRELIM...STARTING OFF WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/20 AND 00Z
/21 ECMWF RUNS AND SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 ECENS
AND GEFS MEANS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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Is see Dallas/Ft Worth has issued a Special Weather Statement for areas N and W of the Metroplex. I also see that some uncertainty still remains regarding timing and strenght and just when all the pieces of the puzzle will come together.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ091>095-100>105-115>119-129>133-141>144-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
COLD BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
GAINESVILLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN SATURDAY MORNING MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN AREAS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS PARIS...DALLAS...AND HAMILTON.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH WHICH
IT WILL INTERACT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECIFY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE WHO ANTICIPATE
TRAVELLING IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.
Now regarding our weather locally. HGX is rather bullish on some significant rainfall beginning over night. Austin/San Antonio has issued a Special Weather Statement mentioning the rainfall and continued rain chances into the Christmas Holiday Weekend. Those with travel plans should monitor further updates as things may well change during the next 24-36 hours for the weekend across portions of the Lone Star State.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-220030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
...CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LOW NEAR BIG BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING FROM
THE WEST...AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO VARY
FROM AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ091>095-100>105-115>119-129>133-141>144-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
COLD BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
GAINESVILLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN SATURDAY MORNING MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN AREAS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS PARIS...DALLAS...AND HAMILTON.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH WHICH
IT WILL INTERACT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECIFY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE WHO ANTICIPATE
TRAVELLING IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.
Now regarding our weather locally. HGX is rather bullish on some significant rainfall beginning over night. Austin/San Antonio has issued a Special Weather Statement mentioning the rainfall and continued rain chances into the Christmas Holiday Weekend. Those with travel plans should monitor further updates as things may well change during the next 24-36 hours for the weekend across portions of the Lone Star State.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-220030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
...CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LOW NEAR BIG BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING FROM
THE WEST...AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO VARY
FROM AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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From HGX:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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It appears the WRF/4km NAM initiated well regarding the rains moving out of Old Mexico. We'll see what the 00Z HiRes guidance suggests as to where the heavier rains can be expected...


Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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SPC Update this evening:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WRN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF HAD BEGUN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO/BIG BEND AREA SHIFTS E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MID-LEVEL DCVA
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA. OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
SERN LA...WITH STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO 12Z...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL RISK.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WRN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF HAD BEGUN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO/BIG BEND AREA SHIFTS E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MID-LEVEL DCVA
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA. OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
SERN LA...WITH STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO 12Z...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL RISK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Looks like around the 30th...around New Years there will be another storm system..hopefully with the right timing and ingredients.....and we'll repeat the cycle again (just as the this one and the previous one)..come on...at least one of these systems should bring about some sleet...just some sleet..just for 10 minutes 

- Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
The light to moderate rain is filling in nicely across SW TX currently. I recieved .77" yesterday with a storm total of 1.02" with the last fast moving storm system. Hoping for that or more later tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Looks to be a rainy night. Perhaps some thunder mixed in.



Wow - the radar just lit up like a christmas tree!