December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[MontgomeryCoWx]

niiiiiiice for our friends along I-20... hoping I get to see some goodness in Longview

[srainhoutx]

I'm not too worried about temps. If the Canadian and Euro suggest moisture and lift across the Lone Star State, the 'finer details' will be worked out later. Meanwhile, rain chance for tonight into tomorrow look very encouraging.

[srainhoutx]

SPC did take away the slight risk...

Yeah. I was just about to mention that...

...SERN TX/SRN LA EARLY THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NWD OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NRN MEXICO SYSTEM AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TX COAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINING LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH 22/12Z WITH DEVELOPING STORMS
LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 22/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian suggests clouds and a bit better lift near Coastal Texas for Christmas Eve. Although moisture is meager further N, that model also has joined the Euro/GFS solution lingering some upper level energy back in Old Mexico during the long Holiday Weekend.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS Ensembles for Christmas Eve...

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Drought Statement:

Code: Select all

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1120 AM CDT WED DEC 21 2011

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
           
      ...THE WESTERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS VERY DRY...

      ...DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER PARTS
                         OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

           ...PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON          
                           CHRISTMAS EVE...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN...SO RARE TO COME BY DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER...CONTINUES 
TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DECEMBER RAINFALL IS STILL BELOW 
NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT THE DEPARTURES ARE NOT EXTREME. THE
FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL HAS ALSO BEEN ENCOURAGING. THERE HAS BEEN 
ENOUGH RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE TRINITY AND WEST FORK OF THE SAN 
JACINTO RIVERS TO FOSTER SOME GAINS IN AREA RESERVOIRS. LAKE HOUSTON 
IS AT 100 PERCENT CAPACITY AND LAKE LIVINGSTON IS APPROACHING 89 
PERCENT CAPACITY. BUT NOT ALL THE NEWS IS GOOD. AREAS WEST OF A 
MADISONVILLE TO BAY CITY LINE HAVE NOT RECEIVED THE SAME QUANTITY OF 
RAIN AS POINTS TO THE EAST. EDNA HAS ONLY RECEIVED 0.05 INCHES OF 
RAIN THROUGH DECEMBER 20TH. PALACIOS...COLUMBUS AND SOMERVILLE HAVE 
ALL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH DECEMBER 20TH. 
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR RAIN COMING UP AND HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS 
WILL RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN.

RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN ON AN UPTICK SINCE OCTOBER 1ST. THE AREA 
IS STILL VERY DRY BUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN GETTING RAIN SEMI 
REGULARLY. THE EFFECTS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE BEEN POSITIVE BUT LONG 
TERM DROUGHT INDICATORS STILL SHOW A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE RETURNING 
TO ANY SENSE OF NORMALCY. BELOW ARE THE RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE 
OCTOBER 1ST:

LOCATION            2011 RAIN      2011      PERCENT OF
                    10/1-12/20     TOTAL     2011 TOTAL           

CITY OF HOUSTON     9.83           22.06     44.6                 

HOUSTON HOBBY      10.61           23.53     45.1                 

CITY OF GALVESTON   8.92           20.50     43.5

COLLEGE STATION     4.69           17.86     26.3


2011 IS COMING TO A CLOSE. HOW DRY HAS 2011 BEEN? 

HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 20 FOR THE FIRST 
ORDER CLIMATE SITES (AND DANEVANG):

                   JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 21

CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE      DANEVANG     GALVESTON        
HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

17.66 1917   23.53 2011   16.66 1917   16.76 1917   20.50 2011 
22.06 2011   26.14 1988   17.06 1988   17.86 1954   20.85 1956
22.54 1988   27.36 1956   17.86 2011   19.02 2011   21.03 1948
24.79 1901   27.66 1954   20.83 1948   20.22 1956   21.25 1927
26.30 1910   30.17 1931   22.79 1956   23.26 1963   21.41 1917

WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR...THESE 
TOTALS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE CITY OF 
HOUSTON WILL PROBABLY FINISH AS THE THIRD DRIEST IN RECORDED HISTORY.
HOBBY AIRPORT WILL ENDURE IT'S DRIEST OR SECOND DRIEST YEAR ON 
RECORD. COLLEGE STATION WILL ENDURE IT'S THIRD OR FOURTH DRIEST YEAR 
ON RECORD AND 2011 WILL PROBABLY BE THE FOURTH DRIEST FOR DANEVANG. 
THE CITY OF GALVESTON...DESPITE RECORDING IT'S DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD 
THROUGH DECEMBER 21ST WILL LIKELY FINISH 2011 AS THE FOURTH DRIEST 
YEAR ON RECORD.

             FIVE ALL-TIME DRIEST CALENDAR YEARS ON RECORD

CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE      DANEVANG     GALVESTON        
HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

17.66 1917   26.65 1988   16.66 1917   16.76 1917   21.40 1948
22.93 1988   28.32 1956   17.80 1988   18.85 1954   21.43 1917
27.09 1901   28.76 1954   21.17 1948   20.38 1956   21.84 1956
27.23 1951   31.31 1931   23.09 1956   23.29 1963   22.29 1954
28.08 1999   32.29 1963   24.62 1999   23.86 1951   23.40 1927 

RAINFALL DEFICITS BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER HURRICANE IKE IN 2008. 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL IN 2009 AND WELL BELOW 
NORMAL IN 2010. THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING FOR SEVERAL 
YEARS. DESPITE RECENT RAINS...HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT HAS OVER A 29 
INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR THIS YEAR ALONE AND OVER A THREE FOOT 
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE LAST THREE YEARS. GALVESTON IS 
SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFICIT OVER 46 INCHES OVER THE LAST THREE 
YEARS.  

SITE           NORMAL     2009     2010     2011*    TOTAL
                                                     DEPARTURE

HOUSTON        47.84      47.01    42.72   22.06
                          -0.83    -5.12  -26.49     -32.44

HOU HOBBY      53.96      52.65    47.02   23.53
                          -1.34    -6.94  -29.74     -38.02

COL STATION    39.67      38.98    27.78   17.86
                          -0.69   -11.89  -21.05     -33.63

GALVESTON      43.84      37.16    33.14   20.50
                          -6.68   -10.70  -29.15     -46.53    

* 2009-10 YEAR TO DATE NORMALS ARE USING  1971-2000
* 2011 YEAR TO DATE NORMALS ARE NOW USING 1981-2010  

ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY SINCE THE END OF 2008...THE DROUGHT 
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2010. THE 
SPRING...SUMMER AND FIRST HALF OF FALL 2011 WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST ON 
RECORD. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED BUT MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO 
REPLENISH AREA RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS. 

DESPITE MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER 
AND NOVEMBER...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE 
INSTEAD OF THE 25TH. SLOW PROGRESS...BUT IT IS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT 
OVER THE RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER. 

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
TEXAS FROM OCTOBER 1 2010 THROUGH DECEMBER 20 2011. 
             
LOCATION     OCT-SEP   OCT    NOV    DEC    TOTAL
             2010-11   2011   2011   2011              

BELLVILLE     13.34    1.64   1.88   0.40   17.26    
NORMALS       40.49    3.89   4.18   2.39   50.95
DEPARTURE    -27.15   -2.25  -2.30  -1.99  -33.69 

BRENHAM       16.16    1.72   3.86   0.72   22.46    
NORMALS       43.66    5.09   4.28   2.57   55.60
DEPARTURE    -27.50   -3.37  -0.42  -1.85  -33.14

COL STATION   14.88    0.96   2.41   1.32   19.57
NORMALS       38.99    4.91   3.22   2.08   49.20
DEPARTURE    -24.11   -3.95  -0.81  -0.76  -29.63

COLUMBUS      16.16    1.81   2.82   0.28   21.07
NORMALS       43.21    4.68   4.42   2.37   54.68
DEPARTURE    -27.05   -2.87  -1.60  -2.09  -33.61

CONROE        17.90    1.76   3.78   1.70   25.14    
NORMALS       48.21    5.20   5.32   2.99   61.72
DEPARTURE    -30.31   -3.44  -1.54  -1.29  -36.58

CROCKETT      22.34    1.55   3.23   2.35   29.47
NORMALS       44.60    4.76   4.09   3.00   56.45
DEPARTURE    -22.26   -3.21  -0.86  -0.65  -26.98

DANEVANG      21.16    2.20   2.43   0.13   25.92
NORMALS       44.49    4.76   4.05   2.33   55.63
DEPARTURE    -23.33   -2.56  -1.62  -2.20  -29.71

GALVESTON     21.98    4.60   2.36   1.96   30.90
NORMALS       44.28    5.52   4.51   2.41   56.72
DEPARTURE    -22.30   -0.92  -2.15  -0.45  -25.82

FREEPORT      18.12    2.05   2.02   2.76   24.95
NORMALS       49.43    4.81   4.83   2.63   61.70
DEPARTURE    -31.31   -2.76  -2.81  +0.13  -36.75

HOU HOBBY     23.57    5.43   2.85   2.33   34.18
NORMALS       54.07    5.99   4.32   2.65   67.03
DEPARTURE    -30.50   -0.56  -1.47  -0.32  -32.85

HOUSTON       18.00    3.36   4.70   1.77   27.83
NORMALS       47.56    5.70   4.34   2.52   60.12
DEPARTURE    -29.56   -2.34  +0.36  -0.75  -32.29

HUNTSVILLE    15.35    2.00   3.80   1.20   22.35
NORMALS       47.15    4.80   4.44   2.67   59.06
DEPARTURE    -31.80   -2.80  -0.64  -1.47  -36.71

KATY          15.83    3.49   3.84   1.73   24.89
NORMALS       42.58    4.82   4.89   2.81   55.10
DEPARTURE    -26.75   -1.33  -1.05  -1.08  -30.21

LIVINGSTON    17.77    3.13   2.71   2.85   26.46
NORMALS       51.11    4.85   5.15   3.53   64.64
DEPARTURE    -33.34   -1.72  -2.44  -0.68  -38.18

MADISONVILLE  13.53    1.94   2.86   1.47   19.80 
NORMALS       43.18    4.84   4.38   2.94   55.34
DEPARTURE    -29.65   -2.90  -1.52  -1.47  -35.54

MATAGORDA     13.18    3.80   4.05   3.32   24.35
NORMALS       43.05    4.38   3.86   1.91   53.20
DEPARTURE    -29.87   -0.58  +0.19  +1.41  -28.85

SOMERVILLE    14.83    0.85   3.26   0.33   19.27
NORMALS       48.92    4.47   3.53   2.33   59.25
DEPARTURE    -34.09   -3.62  -0.27  -2.00  -39.98

TOMBALL       12.49    2.47   3.06   1.93   19.95
NORMALS       48.92    5.30   4.72   2.63   61.57
DEPARTURE    -36.43   -2.83  -1.66  -0.70  -41.62

WASH ST PARK  15.17    1.69   5.93   0.46   23.25
NORMALS       40.92    4.63   3.80   2.54   51.89
DEPARTURE    -25.75   -2.94  +2.13  -2.08  -28.64


HERE ARE SOME NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER RAINFALL TOTALS FOR OTHER 
COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

LOCATION         NOV        NOV       DEP
                            NORMAL 

ANAHUAC          1.97       4.21      -2.24     
ANGLETON         2.86       4.53      -1.67
BAY CITY         3.46       4.25      -0.79
CLEVELAND        8.53       5.68      +2.85   
EDNA             0.28       3.68      -3.40
EL CAMPO         1.06       5.20      -4.14
HOU NWS          3.07       4.91      -1.84
HOU WESTBURY     1.99       4.88      -2.89
PALACIOS         2.11       3.96      -1.85
RICHMOND         1.54       5.22      -3.68
SUGARLAND        2.17       4.59      -2.42
W COLUMBIA       3.90       NA         NA
WHARTON          1.01       4.79      -3.78

LOCATION         DEC        DEC       DEP
                            NORMAL 

ANAHUAC          2.77       3.41      -0.64     
ANGLETON         2.22       2.80      -0.58
BAY CITY         1.11       2.69      -1.58
CLEVELAND        2.87       3.35      -0.48   
EDNA             0.05       2.00      -1.95
EL CAMPO         0.78       2.60      -1.82
HOU NWS          1.81       2.57      -0.76
HOU WESTBURY     2.42       2.88      -0.46
PALACIOS         0.17       1.76      -1.59
RICHMOND         1.04       2.73      -1.69
SUGARLAND        1.94       2.69      -0.75
W COLUMBIA       3.70       NA         NA
WHARTON          0.53       2.49      -1.96


DROUGHT AND HEAT GENERALLY GO HAND IN HAND. THE SIX MONTH PERIOD
OF APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER WAS EASILY THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 2011 IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE 
HOUSTON HOBBY AND COLLEGE STATION AND TIED FOR THE WARMEST ON RECORD 
FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. IT IS CURRENTLY THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD 
FOR THE CITY OF GALVESTON. NOVEMBER WAS WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER AGAIN FAVORS WARMER 
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 
THROUGH DECEMBER 21ST FOR THE FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS:

                     JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 20

       CITY OF       HOUSTON       COLLEGE       CITY OF
       HOUSTON       HOBBY         STATION       GALVESTON

       72.5 2011     73.0 2011     72.4 2011     73.2 2006
       72.5 1962     72.3 1998     71.5 1933     73.0 2011
       72.1 1933     71.9 2006     71.3 1911     72.7 1927          
       72.0 1927     71.8 2000     71.0 1927     72.7 1995           
       71.9 1965     71.7 2009     70.9 2009     72.6 2000

AS OF DECEMBER 20TH 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUED TO 
SHOWED SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN AREA OF 
D-3 OR EXTREME DROUGHT IS EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... 
REPLACING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA 
SINCE LAST APRIL. AREAS EAST OF A LAKE LIVINGSTON TO PALACIOS LINE 
ARE GENERALLY CLASSIFIED AS D-3. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE ARE STILL 
CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. A SMALL POCKET OF D-2 WAS 
INTRODUCED OVER NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY THIS WEEK BUT MOST OF 
LIBERTY COUNTY REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITH EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
DUE TO LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS. 

BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS 
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF DECEMBER 20TH:

                  D-4                   D-3
 
                  AUSTIN                LIBERTY
                  BRAZORIA              MATAGORDA
                  BRAZOS                POLK
                  BURLESON
                  CHAMBERS
                  COLORADO
                  FORT BEND
                  GALVESTON
                  GRIMES
                  HARRIS
                  HOUSTON
                  JACKSON
                  MADISON
                  MONTGOMERY
                  SAN JACINTO
                  TRINITY
                  WALKER
                  WALLER
                  WASHINGTON
                  WHARTON     
                            
                 U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS 

BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS 
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING            
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD        
   WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER        
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS  
   OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE) 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE 
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
WINTER FORAGES WERE EMERGING AND SHOWING SOME GROWTH FROM RECENT 
RAINS. STOCK PONDS BEGAN TO RETAIN WATER OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. 
RYEGRASS WAS PLANTED. HARVESTING OF RATOON RICE WAS COMPLETE. THE 
FREEZE IN LATE NOVEMBER SENT NATIVE PASTURES INTO DORMANCY. 

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE IS ESTIMATING THAT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100 
AND 500 MILLION TREES MAY HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF THIS YEARS 
DROUGHT. ONE OF THE AREAS HARDEST HIT WAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE 
MORTALITY RATE OF LOBLOLLY PINES WAS EXTENSIVE IN MONTGOMERY...
HARRIS...GRIMES AND MADISON COUNTIES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG/TODAY (ALL LOWER CASE).

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AS OF DECEMBER 21ST 2011...100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS BETWEEN 26 AND 
50 PERCENT WEST OF A BRENHAM TO BAY CITY LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE... 
100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. THE MOISTURE 
CONTENT IN 1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL WAS GREATER THAN 21 PERCENT AREAWIDE. 
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER WHERE THE AREA WAS JUST 30 
DAYS EARLIER. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE DAY AVERAGES SHOW A LOW 
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE HELPED TO DECREASE KBDI VALUES 
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. ALMOST HALF OF THE COUNTIES 
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW HAVE KBDI VALUES LESS THAN 500.

KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY 
DANGEROUS. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE COUNTY WITH KBDI VALUES 
EXCEEDING 700. KBDI VALUES OF 800 INDICATE THAT A COLUMN OF SOIL IS 
DEVOID OF MOISTURE TO A DEPTH OF EIGHT INCHES.  

BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (12/20/2011):

700-800   600-700    500-600    400-500    300-400    200-300

JACKSON   COLORADO   AUSTIN     BRAZORIA   GRIMES     LIBERTY
          WHARTON    BRAZOS     CHAMBERS   HARRIS     SAN JACINTO
                     BURLESON   MADISON    MONTGOMERY
                     FORT BEND  WALKER
                     GALVESTON  WALLER
                     HOUSTON
                     MATAGORDA
                     WASHINGTON     
           
  
(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/ 
KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG). 

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED TO MOISTEN GROUND FUELS AND THIS HELPED TO 
LOWER THE THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. MANY COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED THEIR 
BURN BANS SINCE THE LAST DROUGHT STATEMENT. CURRENTLY...ONLY FOUR 
OF THE 23 COUNTIES THAT COMPRISE SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE A BURN BAN IN 
EFFECT. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL 
TEXAS. MANY COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE DROPPED THEIR BURN BANS 
AND CURRENTLY...ONLY 121 OF THE 254 COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE A 
BURN BAN IN EFFECT. THIS IS A REDUCTION FROM THE PEAK OF 248 
COUNTIES WITH BURN BANS IN EFFECT OVER THE SUMMER.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON DECEMBER 20TH 
2011...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN 
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

FORT BEND... HARRIS...JACKSON AND WHARTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES 
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY 
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE RESERVOIRS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE 
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LAKE 
SOMERVILLE IS STILL NEAR 38 PERCENT CAPACITY AND LAKE TEXANA HAS 
NOW FALLEN BELOW 38 PERCENT CAPACITY.  LAKE HOUSTON HAS RISEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FLOW FROM LAKE 
CONROE.  

HERE ARE THE LATEST RESERVOIR LEVELS (MILLIONS ACRE FEET) AS OF 
12/21/11:

     WATERSHED            CONSERVATION   STORAGE     PERCENT
                          CAPACITY       CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON           1.742          1.536       88.2 
LAKE CONROE               0.416          0.276       66.5
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE       0.017          0.012       72.7 
LAKE HOUSTON              0.129          0.129      100.0       
LAKE SOMERVILLE           0.147          0.056       38.1      
LAKE TEXANA               0.153          0.057       37.6      

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIER 
TOTALS OVER THE NORTH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING 
RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST. 
ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING 
ADDITIONAL RAIN AROUND DECEMBER 30TH OR 31ST.

THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 15TH 2011 NOW VALID 
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH OFFERS MORE OF THE SAME. DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SPRING WITH 
MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A HINT OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE. THE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY FAVORS WARMER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. 

[srainhoutx]

Euro stays the course, predicts Permian Basin White Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly the 12Z Euro keeps clouds and some moisture around until Monday...

[wxman57]

Yes, Euro still indicating some light snow out in far west Texas on Saturday, but the airmass dries out considerably by the time the system moves across northeast Texas (Dallas to Tyler). Probably nothing there. And just persistent light to moderate rain here on Christmas Eve with temps holding in the mid 40s.

Canadian and GFS are considerably drier for west Texas on Christmas Eve. Just light rain across SE TX with a weak wave in the Gulf (and temps in the 40s here). Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looks reasonable as far as temps:

[srainhoutx]

Yes, Euro still indicating some light snow out in far west Texas on Saturday, but the airmass dries out considerably by the time the system moves across northeast Texas (Dallas to Tyler). Probably nothing there. And just persistent light to moderate rain here on Christmas Eve with temps holding in the mid 40s.

Canadian and GFS are considerably drier for west Texas on Christmas Eve. Just light rain across SE TX with a weak wave in the Gulf (and temps in the 40s here). Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looks reasonable as far as temps:

A bit intriguing to see a Coastal low develops on the Euro. That feature has not been present on any guidance I've seen, but does seem reasonable with a persistent coastal trough...

[srainhoutx]

Updated Afternoon QPF Dicussion from the HPC regarding tonight into tomorrow:

CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY..

WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WIDESPREAD AREAL AVG .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS
DEPICTED ACRS THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS LIKELY
WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES ORGANIZED.



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
142 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

...VALID 18Z WED DEC 21 2011 - 00Z FRI DEC 23 2011...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



CNTRL TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX...CNTRL TO NRN LA...LARGE
PORTIONS OF MS AND AL...

CONCERNS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM THE CNTRL TO
UPR COAST OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY AREAS.
WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT ALONG
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN MEAN TROF PSN. HIGH PW
VALUES JUST OFF THE TX GULF COAST WL PUSH BACK INLAND TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM HT FALLS STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF HVY RAINS
SPREADING FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION THU. THE 1200 UTC NAM AND 1200
UTC GFS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE IN SPREADING THE HVY
RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...1200 UTC
CMC...1200 UTC UKMET AND 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM FAVORING THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM SOLN. AT THE MOMENT...THIS FASTER DOWNSTREAM
PUSH OF HVY PCPN WAS FAVORED AS THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACCELERATING
ENEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MEAN SWRN TROF PSN. WITH FFG VALUES HIGH ACRS THESE AREAS AND THE
EXPECTED QUICK ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY PCPN...A THREAT AREA
WAS NOT DEPICTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS OVER A FEW HOURS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED 2"+ AMTS FROM THE CNTRL TO UPR TX COASTAL
REGION...NRN TO CNTRL LA...INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Afternoon Update regarding the Holiday Weekend into early next week:


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 24 2011 - 12Z WED DEC 28 2011

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) WILL BE QUITE POSITIVE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST
OF THE HIGH LATITUDES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN
A 5 DAY MEAN IN THE MID LATITUDES WILL BE THE SWRN STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND THE NERN STATES AROUND DAY 7.

UPDATED PRELIMS HAD USED THE ORIGINAL DAYS 3-4 GRAPHICS THEN
SWITCHED TO ENTIRELY ECENS/GEFS MEAN BY TUE/WED DAYS 6-7...WHEN
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BECOME
MORE UNRELIABLE. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW MODELS STILL HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING A POSITIVE TILTED MEAN TROF ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES...WITH THE GEFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS INITIALLY NW OF THE
ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TILTED MEAN TROF.
HOWEVER THE GEFS MEAN BY DAY 5 BEGINS TO SHEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECENS MEAN...SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION WITH ENERGY FARTHER N. THE NEW 12Z GEFS MEAN STILL
SHOWS THIS INTERACTION TO SOME EXTENT.

BY DAY 4...ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MADE A DECIDED
TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE GRT LAKES ON DAY 4.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES
HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED IN NEW MODEL RUNS UNTIL MON/TUE. IN THIS
CASE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF
THE SHORT RANGE IS MORE DOMINANT THAN IT THE 00Z/20 ECMWF
RUN....SQUASHING THE WAVE EMERGING FROM TEXAS THAT MIGHT HAVE
BROUGHT A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY/SRN NEW ENG.
12Z FINAL PROGS SUPPRESSED THIS FEATURE EVEN MORE THAN THE
PRELIMS. BY DAY 5...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A
TENDENCY FOR AN UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER W TX/NM. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FEATURE FORMING ATOP DRY HIGH PRES...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN
GULF ON MON DAY 5. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS FOR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


OTHERWISE...FINAL GRAPHICS STAYED WITH THE BLEND USED IN THE
UPDATED PRELIM...STARTING OFF WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/20 AND 00Z
/21 ECMWF RUNS AND SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 ECENS
AND GEFS MEANS.

[srainhoutx]

Is see Dallas/Ft Worth has issued a Special Weather Statement for areas N and W of the Metroplex. I also see that some uncertainty still remains regarding timing and strenght and just when all the pieces of the puzzle will come together.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>105-115>119-129>133-141>144-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
400 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
COLD BLUSTERY DAY FOLLOWING ON FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
GAINESVILLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. RAIN SATURDAY MORNING MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN AREAS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS PARIS...DALLAS...AND HAMILTON.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH WHICH
IT WILL INTERACT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GOLDTHWAITE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECIFY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE WHO ANTICIPATE
TRAVELLING IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION.



Now regarding our weather locally. HGX is rather bullish on some significant rainfall beginning over night. Austin/San Antonio has issued a Special Weather Statement mentioning the rainfall and continued rain chances into the Christmas Holiday Weekend. Those with travel plans should monitor further updates as things may well change during the next 24-36 hours for the weekend across portions of the Lone Star State.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-220030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
330 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

...CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

A LOW NEAR BIG BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING FROM
THE WEST...AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO VARY
FROM AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

[srainhoutx]

From HGX:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
348 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the WRF/4km NAM initiated well regarding the rains moving out of Old Mexico. We'll see what the 00Z HiRes guidance suggests as to where the heavier rains can be expected...

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update this evening:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WRN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF HAD BEGUN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO/BIG BEND AREA SHIFTS E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MID-LEVEL DCVA
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA. OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
SERN LA...WITH STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO 12Z...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL RISK.

[JackCruz]

Looks like around the 30th...around New Years there will be another storm system..hopefully with the right timing and ingredients.....and we'll repeat the cycle again (just as the this one and the previous one)..come on...at least one of these systems should bring about some sleet...just some sleet..just for 10 minutes

[Katdaddy]

The light to moderate rain is filling in nicely across SW TX currently. I recieved .77" yesterday with a storm total of 1.02" with the last fast moving storm system. Hoping for that or more later tonight and into tomorrow morning.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a rainy night. Perhaps some thunder mixed in.

[jasons2k]

Wow - the radar just lit up like a christmas tree!