July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[tireman4]

No no, you could be right. Wxman 57 is really good in tropical meteorology. His forcast on Ike was spot on point and he is well respected around here. As I say that, he will get a big head..lol..and back to our orginal program and we wait and model watch some more

[djmike]

Yeah, I'm not buying the sudden 90 degree turn to the north based on everything I've seen.

I thought the same thing.

[Kingwood36]

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.



i would say about 75 west and still moving west.. so a shift back this run starts turning at 66hr

[Andrew]

I believe this is now a TD. Should have Barry by tomorrow morning

Recon is going through the center now so we will know soon.

[Kingwood36]

Pretty quite in here

[tireman4]

The 10 pm advisory is coming up..

[Kingwood36]

Pretty much a consensus now that its well east..ukmet is the only outlier it seems for the west?

[Rip76]

So it should start turning north in a few minutes?

[djmike]

So it should start turning north in a few minutes?

Haha not happening... lol

[Andrew]

Looks like based on recon the center is just east of the blowup of convection. You may see the center try to rotate west into that area of stronger convection. Still looking forward to the 00z model suite.

[tireman4]

Looks like based on recon the center is just east of the blowup of convection. You may see the center try to rotate west into that area of stronger convection. Still looking forward to the 00z model suite.

Are you thinking we are in for a wild ride on this obe, Andrew?

[Andrew]

For anyone who is interested and see what each model is saying about the mid/upper levels check out the link below that dives into model verification. It as all the reliable models you can compare.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

[Andrew]

Looks like based on recon the center is just east of the blowup of convection. You may see the center try to rotate west into that area of stronger convection. Still looking forward to the 00z model suite.

Are you thinking we are in for a wild ride on this obe, Andrew?

I will have a better idea after 00z. Still some questions to answer but I am hoping with the large amount of data being ingested we will be able to get an answer tonight.

[bdog38]

Bear creek getting a lot of rain right now. storm is strengthening

[davidiowx]

Has anyone ever heard of the Baron model?

[Kingwood36]

Does anybody here listen to news radio 740 ktrh? I was just driving home from work and the radio personality came on in said Barry is no threat to Texas it will go to Louisiana don't you think that's a little premature?

[Cromagnum]

Off topic but nice little homegrown thunderstorm over near the west side of downtown. Can clearly see a lightning show from Rosharon.

[bdog38]

Im not worried about storm center, the convection of rain around storm is massive. i have a feeling there is a lot of rain coming. None stop here at bear creek(not forecasted).

[unome]

getting the lightning, not the rain

http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.88/30.177/-95.559

[Scott747]

Pretty big shift on the cone for 10 pm advisory. Texas is barely in it anymore. Little surprising but they must be confident.