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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

Wow! That is incredible. Visual would have suggested just a tad strengthening.

srainhoutx wrote:The Euro suggests a potential landfall near Mobile. That model also suggests a weaker trough and continues to slowly move Isaac N as it dissipates over the Tennessee Valley Region.

what is your thinking as of now Srain?

So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

ticka1 wrote:So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

^^^^^what Ticka said!

sambucol wrote:

ticka1 wrote:So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

^^^^^what Ticka said!

It all depends on the intensity of the trough and the shortwaves associated with it. The gfs shows a weaker one and has it missing the trough. The Euro has a stronger trough and as a result picks it up.

ticka1 wrote:So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

what do you think Ticka?

cisa wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:The Euro suggests a potential landfall near Mobile. That model also suggests a weaker trough and continues to slowly move Isaac N as it dissipates over the Tennessee Valley Region.

what is your thinking as of now Srain?

Isaac has a lot of obstacles to overcome before it is going to become a formidable storm. We'll see if it can shake the dry air to the S and develop once it enters the SE Gulf. Isaac hasn't exactly behaved as some had expected...

biggerbyte wrote:Hmm! I'm not sure about that one. He is the only person I pay attention to when it comes to stuff like that. Wxman57 is good with the models, which is the only way, of course, to predict such things. That is not my personal cup of tea, so I just wonder if he thinks today that his previous thinking still holds true. This is important if Issac is to move into Texas from the east, and who would be effected.

A few things to point out --
1) While Wxman57 is an exceptional met and has nothing but my utmost respect, even he isn't 100% correct 100% of the time. It's good to consult with a few good mets and formulate an analysis from that. As they say, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
2) The models aren't the 'only' way to predict such things. It's much more complicated than that. If that were the case, we wouldn't need degreed Mets; anyone with about 6 hours of Met. credits and a couple of labs would be just as effective. It's just not so.

cisa wrote:

ticka1 wrote:So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

what do you think Ticka?

With everything that has happened in the tropics this year - i keep reading and hearing that the GFS is KING of the models and is getting the "storms" right. That is why I have such interest in each GFS run ..... I want to see trends by each model - then consistancy with all models clustered together. That hasn't happened yet with Isaac. Time is running short but the further west Isaac is forecasted the more time it will take for landfall.

This is my uneducated two cents worth and definitely is NOT an official forecast - please follow the NHC website for all official information.

Thank you Srain and everyone else. I have family with homes in La and FL. They headed for Fl yesterday to shore property and I'm afraid they're going to have to turn around and go back. I always try to stay ahead of this stuff if I can because I care for my 80 year old mom and my husband works for DPS so when a storm comes I have to be prepared early because towards the end, he usually has to work and I have to make sure things are safe for my mom. Anyway, thanks for the clarification.

ticka1 wrote:

cisa wrote:

ticka1 wrote:So which MODEL is going to be right on Isaac's forecast. One thing is for sure - there is no consistancy but there are trends beginning to show up from model run to model run.

what do you think Ticka?

With everything that has happened in the tropics this year - i keep reading and hearing that the GFS is KING of the models and is getting the "storms" right. That is why I have such interest in each GFS run ..... I want to see trends by each model - then consistancy with all models clustered together. That hasn't happened yet with Isaac. Time is running short but the further west Isaac is forecasted the more time it will take for landfall.

This is my uneducated two cents worth and definitely is NOT an official forecast - please follow the NHC website for all official information.

Thanks so much.

18Z Tracks & Intensity:

jasons wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Hmm! I'm not sure about that one. He is the only person I pay attention to when it comes to stuff like that. Wxman57 is good with the models, which is the only way, of course, to predict such things. That is not my personal cup of tea, so I just wonder if he thinks today that his previous thinking still holds true. This is important if Issac is to move into Texas from the east, and who would be effected.

A few things to point out --
1) While Wxman57 is an exceptional met and has nothing but my utmost respect, even he isn't 100% correct 100% of the time. It's good to consult with a few good mets and formulate an analysis from that. As they say, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
2) The models aren't the 'only' way to predict such things. It's much more complicated than that. If that were the case, we wouldn't need degreed Mets; anyone with about 6 hours of Met. credits and a couple of labs would be just as effective. It's just not so.

I agree about no one is 100% correct, 100% of the time. We've been through that.
However, I have to disagree about long range forecasting. I'm curious.. On the one hand you mention no one is 100% correct all of the time, but then you say that degreed mets have the ability to accurately forecast beyond three days/long range. The human brain does not have the capacity to do the calculations needed to even begin to get near a semi glimpse into the long range. Models may not be perfect, but they are better than guessing how conditions will change to allow this or that to happen. Example: We have degreed mets in this forum. We are within a few days of landfall. The models, nor our Pro Mets can tell you right now what IS going to happen with Isaac. Anyway! I think we should get back to said situation and save the conversation for later. What do you think?

jasons wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Hmm! I'm not sure about that one. He is the only person I pay attention to when it comes to stuff like that. Wxman57 is good with the models, which is the only way, of course, to predict such things. That is not my personal cup of tea, so I just wonder if he thinks today that his previous thinking still holds true. This is important if Issac is to move into Texas from the east, and who would be effected.

A few things to point out --
1) While Wxman57 is an exceptional met and has nothing but my utmost respect, even he isn't 100% correct 100% of the time. It's good to consult with a few good mets and formulate an analysis from that. As they say, don't put all your eggs in one basket.
2) The models aren't the 'only' way to predict such things. It's much more complicated than that. If that were the case, we wouldn't need degreed Mets; anyone with about 6 hours of Met. credits and a couple of labs would be just as effective. It's just not so.

Ok you've got my attention,other than the models how can you predict where a storm will go.

Latest Recon pass has central pressure down to 992mb. 38 miles South of Key West, FL. Motion looks to be WNW.

Man that is a big spread in those models,time is going to get critical in a couple of days and i don't think we're gonna get a concensus today unless one of the big two decide to cry uncle.

Expanding ridge is stalling that trof out.

It's going to LA as a Cat2/cat 3

Jefferson Parrish declares "State of Emergency."

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/jeffers ... 79655.html

"Jefferson Parish President John Young has declared a State of Emergency for Jefferson Parish in anticipation of the effects of Tropical Storm Isaac.

Jefferson Parish Emergency Management is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac. The National Weather Service reports Tropical Storm Isaac continues to strengthen and likely will continue a westward track in the Gulf of Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch currently is in effect for all areas of Southeast Louisiana, including areas of upper and lower Jefferson Parish.

All citizens are reminded to prepare now your families, homes, and property for this weather event.

The Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-West (SLFPA-W) will begin closing non-essential flood gates on the West Bank in anticipation of strong southerly winds and high tides associated with Tropical Storm Isaac. This is the first step in a process that will ensure implementation of the Authority’s flood protection program. As the storm progresses, there will be additional closures as the Flood Authority works with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Substantial rain, hurricane force winds, and tidal surge are expected as Isaac is expected to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall, which at this point, is projected to be 7:00am CST Wednesday, August 29, 2012 near Biloxi, MS."

The 12Z Euro Ensemble 51 members are tightly clustering near SE LA/MS. There are a few members that are to the W and the E of that area as well...