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For those curious on how the 12z GFS run shakes out ... it brings Isaac across the LA/TX state line around hour 99. It then slowly moves west and then lifts north, fairly slowly, through east Texas.

At hour 120 ... the storm center is just to the east of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Maybe time to make sure plans are in place. With the storm seemingly difficult to forecast there may not be much notice should Isaac come our way. Not saying run out and strip the store shelves, but maybe take care of things now that may not get taken care of if there is a mad ruch at the last minute. I am trimming tree branches near the house...needs to be done but doing it now just in case.
On another note, I have not seen much of my squirrel families much of the summer, now they are all running around digging up nuts and gathering food and putting it in their nests in the trees. Thought it was odd.

Hr 90 just onshore

Near Holly Beach

Hr 96 just N of Cameron

Hr 105 N of Beaumont

biggerbyte wrote:Isaac really looks like he is shaping up nicely again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

The song remains the same. At this time, everybody from SE Texas to just east of LA should really monitor the NHC write ups, as well as your local news. Folks in NOLA know the drill.

I am wondering if wxman57 still feels that Texas is protected from Isaac by high pressure?
What say he? What is his personal opinion about it going into LA and moving off to the north and northeast from there?
Has he had to rethink as of this morning?

I am sure wxman57 will post his opinion like we all do. Unless I am entirely mistaken, he was not the only member thinking the high pressure would be one of the steering mechanisms keeping Isaac away from Texas

txflagwaver wrote:Maybe time to make sure plans are in place. With the storm seemingly difficult to forecast there may not be much notice should Isaac come our way. Not saying run out and strip the store shelves, but maybe take care of things now that may not get taken care of if there is a mad ruch at the last minute. I am trimming tree branches near the house...needs to be done but doing it now just in case.
On another note, I have not seen much of my squirrel families much of the summer, now they are all running around digging up nuts and gathering food and putting it in their nests in the trees. Thought it was odd.

Sometimes animals are more of an indicator of nature the the more state of the art stuff. This just reminds me of Rita in a lot of ways...coming in east of us but at an angle that shifts our way after landfall.

I know he has plenty of detractors, but given his comments about this storm and SE Texas, I thought I would bring some of Joe Bastardi's thoughts in the last hour to everyone's attention.

"GFS is a catastrophe. Major hurricane wanders w nr Gulf coast to se Texas. Failing to make contact with trough, Isaac forced to turn west"

"This hits every refinery to se Tex"

Source: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

txsnowmaker wrote:I know he has plenty of detractors, but given his comments about this storm and SE Texas, I thought I would bring some of Joe Bastardi's thoughts in the last hour to everyone's attention.

"GFS is a catastrophe. Major hurricane wanders w nr Gulf coast to se Texas. Failing to make contact with trough, Isaac forced to turn west"

"This hits every refinery to se Tex"

Source: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

I welcome Joe's thougts on Isaac.I know he's a lighting rod on another forum that i'm also a member of.Having said that he's right about how that track would effect those refineries in SE Texas.

Scary stuff.. No doubt. We will all get through whatever the outcome is, folks. This forum has been around for years. Some of the members as well. We've all been a family and have overcome all things weather together. Without getting too dramatic, everyone knows the routine since dealing with Katrina, Rita, then Ike. Instead of just checking back here daily, I'd recommend frequent checks per day for the latest news. This situation is still quite fluid.

txflagwaver wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Isaac really looks like he is shaping up nicely again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

The song remains the same. At this time, everybody from SE Texas to just east of LA should really monitor the NHC write ups, as well as your local news. Folks in NOLA know the drill.

I am wondering if wxman57 still feels that Texas is protected from Isaac by high pressure?
What say he? What is his personal opinion about it going into LA and moving off to the north and northeast from there?
Has he had to rethink as of this morning?

I am sure wxman57 will post his opinion like we all do. Unless I am entirely mistaken, he was not the only member thinking the high pressure would be one of the steering mechanisms keeping Isaac away from Texas

Hmm! I'm not sure about that one. He is the only person I pay attention to when it comes to stuff like that. Wxman57 is good with the models, which is the only way, of course, to predict such things. That is not my personal cup of tea, so I just wonder if he thinks today that his previous thinking still holds true. This is important if Issac is to move into Texas from the east, and who would be effected.

A little over 24 hrs ago Bastardi had a track towards Miami/Upper Keys as a 970 or lower system.

That was after his East Coast track was a complete and total unmitigated bust.

CMC:

biggerbyte wrote:

txflagwaver wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Isaac really looks like he is shaping up nicely again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

The song remains the same. At this time, everybody from SE Texas to just east of LA should really monitor the NHC write ups, as well as your local news. Folks in NOLA know the drill.

I am wondering if wxman57 still feels that Texas is protected from Isaac by high pressure?
What say he? What is his personal opinion about it going into LA and moving off to the north and northeast from there?
Has he had to rethink as of this morning?

I am sure wxman57 will post his opinion like we all do. Unless I am entirely mistaken, he was not the only member thinking the high pressure would be one of the steering mechanisms keeping Isaac away from Texas

Hmm! I'm not sure about that one. He is the only person I pay attention to when it comes to stuff like that. Wxman57 is good with the models, which is the only way, of course, to predict such things. That is not my personal cup of tea, so I just wonder if he thinks today that his previous thinking still holds true. This is important if Issac is to move into Texas from the east, and who would be effected.

biggerbyte wrote:Scary stuff.. No doubt. We will all get through whatever the outcome is, folks. This forum has been around for years. Some of the members as well. We've all been a family and have overcome all things weather together. Without getting too dramatic, everyone knows the routine since dealing with Katrina, Rita, then Ike. Instead of just checking back here daily, I'd recommend frequent checks per day for the latest news. This situation is still quite fluid.

I am confused...do you only pay attention to Wxman57 or do you check the lastest news frequently?

CMC a tad east of the 00z run.

I said from the start that my gut was saying west of Florida rather than the recurve up the east coast (as per Bastardi). Question is, how far west? I was feeling good about the fairly good model agreement suggesting the western FL panhandle yesterday. The shift west to southeast LA/MS this morning wasn't unexpected, though, as I'd been telling our clients there that if we were to shift the track at all it would be westward toward MS.

Presently, the 12z GFS run is a complete outlier. It's disturbing, regardless, as it could impact the entire LA coast. Just saw the 12Z Canadian and it says southeast Mississippi. Unfortunately, the Canadian isn't a model I'd generally pay attention to. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z Euro handles the ridge over TX. The 12Z GFS takes Isaac westward right into its own ridge while it has a clear avenue of lower pressure to its north, which is strange.

I'm still not concerned about the Houston area. Even a direct hit to Lake Charles would mean just a bit of rain here.

I expect the NHC will adjust its track westward at 4pm. Probably to New Orleans or not far east of there.

wxman57 wrote:I said from the start that my gut was saying west of Florida rather than the recurve up the east coast (as per Bastardi). Question is, how far west? I was feeling good about the fairly good model agreement suggesting the western FL panhandle yesterday. The shift west to southeast LA/MS this morning wasn't unexpected, though, as I'd been telling our clients there that if we were to shift the track at all it would be westward toward MS.

Presently, the 12z GFS run is a complete outlier. It's disturbing, regardless, as it could impact the entire LA coast. Just saw the 12Z Canadian and it says southeast Mississippi. Unfortunately, the Canadian isn't a model I'd generally pay attention to. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z Euro handles the ridge over TX. The 12Z GFS takes Isaac westward right into its own ridge while it has a clear avenue of lower pressure to its north, which is strange.

I'm still not concerned about the Houston area. Even a direct hit to Lake Charles would mean just a bit of rain here.

I expect the NHC will adjust its track westward at 4pm. Probably to New Orleans or not far east of there.

Didn't they already do that?

I'm glad you pointed that the GFS at this point is an outlier 57. I was just talking with my chase partner as he gets ready to leave Southern California about what the 12z run showed. The approach to SE Louisiana (Mississippi mouth) isn't that far off for the most part in relation to what the other models are showing. It's that basically due W movement it has afterwords that is turning it into a total outlier.

Another round where it will be interesting with what solution the Euro provides.

they are only predicting a cat 2 hurricane. to me the way the storm is developing looks a lot stronger than a cat 2

I am confused...do you only pay attention to Wxman57 or do you check the lastest news frequently?

Not sure I understand the point of your question. I'll just say it this way. I'm on this forum frequently. Wxman57 is paid to do what he does. I feel if you want a forecast beyond three days, then he is the person to ask. He is good at what he does. End users can get more out of watching their local news. These folks primarily need to know what is happening within a short window. I rarely watch the local news, because I don't need to.

Hope that helps..

12Z HWRF: NW heading near Houma with a general NW motion inland...

Scott747 wrote:I'm glad you pointed that the GFS at this point is an outlier 57. I was just talking with my chase partner as he gets ready to leave Southern California about what the 12z run showed. The approach to SE Louisiana (Mississippi mouth) isn't that far off for the most part in relation to what the other models are showing. It's that basically due W movement it has afterwords that is turning it into a total outlier.

Another round where it will be interesting with what solution the Euro provides.

Well it is all about it catching the trough or getting caught in the ridging. If it misses the trough then a turn more west could be possible. The CMC catches the trough. I do agree with wxman that the gfs does look a little strange. If the Euro follows in that path, that will be really concerning.