January 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index
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don
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Agree, I’m surprised it’s not more active here.
txsnowmaker
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NWS has about 0.1 inch of ice forecasted for metro Houston. We can deal with that without any major disruptions, although I’m sure that won’t prevent mob scenes and shortages at local HEB’s lol.
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snowman65
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don wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:41 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Agree, I’m surprised it’s not more active here.
Maybe everyone is out at Home Depot getting spigot covers :lol:
TexasBreeze
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Freezing rain just doesn't have the interest as 2 plus inches of forecasted snow does. Big difference from the system a year ago.
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Because until the 12z runs today it was looking like less severe event for SE Texas.

These latest 12z runs aren't a trend we want to see down this way...
Stratton20
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I am cautiously optimistic that we can avoid serious widespread issues down here, although its going to be close, these 12z runs really suck, we need to see a trend toward more sleet
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tireman4
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:55 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Because until the 12z runs today it was looking like less severe event for SE Texas.

These latest 12z runs aren't a trend we want to see down this way...


Wait until the 0Z GFS. It will have recon data points ingested into it. Also, I think the high res models will have another thing to say about this.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Scott747 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:55 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Because until the 12z runs today it was looking like less severe event for SE Texas.

These latest 12z runs aren't a trend we want to see down this way...
The 12z runs were along my line of thinking all along. I figured there would be an uptick in freezing rain totals given the juiced STJ.

I never really bought into a ton of sleet accumulation outside of maybe College Station.

We are getting close to Ice Storm Warning Criteria across a large swath.
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jabcwb2
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:09 am
Scott747 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:55 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Because until the 12z runs today it was looking like less severe event for SE Texas.

These latest 12z runs aren't a trend we want to see down this way...
The 12z runs were along my line of thinking all along. I figured there would be an uptick in freezing rain totals given the juiced STJ.

I never really bought into a ton of sleet accumulation outside of maybe College Station.

We are getting close to Ice Storm Warning Criteria across a large swath.
That is good news! We dont need death and destruction. The cold temps will do enough! I just hope the grid keeps up.
Stratton20
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Oh its not lol, you definitely want more sleet accumulation than ice, ICE storms are just miserable
Stormlover2020
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No that’s bad u want snow an sleet not freezing rain
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:19 am Oh its not lol, you definitely want more sleet accumulation than ice, ICE storms are just miserable
Yeah, I was confused by his post.

The temps are gonna be there. It’s the column and qpf uptick that we need to watch.
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sambucol
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don wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:41 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Agree, I’m surprised it’s not more active here.
We’ve been preparing today and getting things needed. So maybe that’s what others are doing and at work.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:23 am
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:19 am Oh its not lol, you definitely want more sleet accumulation than ice, ICE storms are just miserable
Yeah, I was confused by his post.

The temps are gonna be there. It’s the column and qpf uptick that we need to watch.
WOW! I REALLY DID MISREAD THIS! I'm so sorry - I was scrolling on the fly and thought the freezing rain was stopping around College Station.
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 11:04 am
Scott747 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:55 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 10:36 am Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.
Because until the 12z runs today it was looking like less severe event for SE Texas.

These latest 12z runs aren't a trend we want to see down this way...


Wait until the 0Z GFS. It will have recon data points ingested into it. Also, I think the high res models will have another thing to say about this.
That recon run was scheduled to help with the Deep South and East Coast event. We're only catching a break with how Sunday could evolve.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Ensemble means are really increasing qpf here.

We better hope that includes sleet or it could get Western real fast around here.
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Brazoriatx979
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 21, 2026 12:17 pm Ensemble means are really increasing qpf here.

We better hope that includes sleet or it could get Western real fast around here.
yup **** is going to get real. i noticed hou/galv has added the coastal counties for freezing rain also
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tireman4
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From Wxman57 on S2K

12Z EC looks WAY too warm and slow with the front. It had Houston at 71 degrees 6pm Saturday and no freezing rain south of College Station. Ignore it. Meanwhile, crazy Canadian has Houston down to 3 degrees Tuesday morning, which is over 20 degrees colder than NBM. Ignore it, at least for Houston. As for me, I'm hoping the EC is right and that the front won't do much for the Houston area. Unfortunately, I think it's not doing well at all.
mcheer23
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The way EWX just issued their Winter Storm Watch, tells me that HGX will likely keep it above I-10
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