January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[cperk]

srainhoutx thank you for great analysis of our upcoming weather.You keep it real by stating facts.

[CRASHWX]

Yes brovo Srain!

[ccbluewater]

Certainly isn't looking good for the Bounce House prospects for my daughters birthday party Saturday! Looks to be a tad breezy, and chilly! I guess its a good thing they wanted a "Frozen" Themed party!

P.s. loving the new site! Great job to all involved!

[jasons2k]

This morning’s NWS forecast had me at 27 on Monday morning. Will be interesting to see what they do with this afternoon’s update. I do *not* want a hard freeze.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1136 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.DISCUSSION...
Overall temperatures look on track for the rest of the day as
cloud cover continues over SE Texas. Surface analysis shows a weak
coastal trough possibly in the process of forming off the lower
Texas coast. Radars show some light rain over south Texas and
expect this activity to eventually work towards the area tonight
into tomorrow. Main update to the forecast was for ongoing trends
in the near term to match the forecast with obs.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/

AVIATION...
4000-6000ft ceilings will persist thru the evening. Latest
guidance suite has them falling lower, and faster, than the
previous runs. Went ahead and tweaked the extended portions of the
12z TAFs downward into low MVFR & high IFR territory as we head
into the morning hours on Wed. May need to further lower them a
couple hundred feet if future model consistency is further
established. Not expecting much improvement during the day Wed. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 51 46 61 56 71 / 0 10 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 53 48 61 58 72 / 0 10 40 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 53 53 62 60 66 / 0 20 40 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

[harp]

The end of the 18Z GFS is nice eye candy. Too bad it's hour 372!

[djmike]

Local met here in Bmt just showed the lowest for us is 29/30 sunday. Then monday/tues back into mid upper 60s saying brunt of this will be east of us! ....well that just burst my bubble for a real winter here. Is this going more east or did he jump the gun so to speak?

[Belmer]

This is what I meant earlier by saying towards the end of the month the coldest anomalies are aimed more towards Texas, rather than the east/southeast. This is what you want to see.

Looked at the same model you shared, looks like the coldest of the air still slides to the east of us. No doubt this is still a chilly set-up for anyone east of the Rockies, but the coldest anomalies may glance northern and eastern portions of TX as the trough still looks to max east of us due to a potential ridge out west. Not saying this will happen... some models are varying on how west that trough can fully dig, but general consensus past couple of days hasn't changed all too much. Certainly don't see any record breaking cold for us down here.

[CRASHWX]

My bet is cold slide way further south and west than the models are saying...

[Cpv17]

My bet is cold slide way further south and west than the models are saying...

I agree. Models tend to be east biased with the cold air. Same thing happened back in November. Models were saying the coldest anomalies would go east of us when they actually came straight towards us. That’s just one example of many.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS op matches up well with the CFS map I posted earlier. Coldest anomalies headed straight south instead of east.



We will see. I for am tired of the people on the east coast always getting the fun stuff.

[CRASHWX]

Go look at Jeff’s post and his positioning of the high....I’m going with him

[CRASHWX]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Main forecast item of interest for the next several days will be the arrival of an arctic air mass into the region Saturday and rain chances ahead of this feature.

Cloud bank has overspread the region this morning and with continued NE winds draining cold air into the region from western Louisiana, temperatures are not going to rise much today…likely only into the mid 50’s. Coastal trough will slowly develop along the middle TX coast later this afternoon and help in increase moisture advection over the surface cold air mass. Expect light rain, drizzle and fog to develop overnight and linger into Wednesday especially south of I-10.

Much warmer air mass spreads into the region on developing southerly winds ahead of a powerful upper level trough and arctic front. With increasing moisture and some instability in place by Friday expect to see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms develop over the region. Approach of the strong frontal boundary and upper level trough late Friday into early Saturday will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overall fast motion of the system should keep rainfall totals generally under 1 inch for most areas.

Weekend:

Arctic cold front will blast across the region with strong cold air advection and rapidly falling temperatures. Front should be near the coast by late morning and all sites will experience high temperatures prior to the frontal passage. Temperatures by Saturday afternoon and evening will likely be a solid 20-30 degrees colder than Friday evening as strong cold air advection drives the air mass across TX and offshore. Advective freeze is looking likely for most areas NW of US 59 for Saturday night and winds will continue to howl as the arctic high pressure builds into the area. Wind chills by Sunday morning will fall well into the 20’s and 10’s over the entire region with winds of 15-25mph. Low temperatures Sunday morning will fall into the low 30’s and upper 20’s along and NW of US 59 and into the mid 20’s N of HWY 105. This will be a damaging advective freeze event will winds remaining up all night reducing the “greenhouse” effect of warmth from the earth’s surface. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get much above 40 degrees and with the center of the arctic high just NE of SE TX Sunday night, maximum cold conditions can be expected with clear skies and calm winds. Will likely be looking at a hard freeze (25 or lower for 2 hours or more) for a good portion of the area Monday morning with temperatures into the mid 20’s along and N of I-10 and upper 20’s to the coast.

Take the time over the next few days to prepare for this cold weather outbreak and winterize outdoor items that require protection.

BINGO

[djmike]

Well whatever pans out certainly doesn’t look to stick around. 1-2 days cold then right back to the mid upper 60’s for us by Tuesday. Our infamous roller coaster pattern will continue... wonder why we always get sick. Grrr.

[snowman65]

our local met says nothing to fear with the front this weekend, and I trust him. just as I suspected...and have been saying....we aren't getting anything worth writing home about this year....barely below freezing for a few hours is nothing special. you keep model watching more than 4 days out, you will keep getting disappointed.

[CRASHWX]

our local met says nothing to fear with the front this weekend, and I trust him. just as I suspected...and have been saying....we aren't getting anything worth writing home about this year....barely below freezing for a few hours is nothing special. you keep model watching more than 4 days out, you will keep getting disappointed.

And you may prove to be 100% right! My thought is this weekend is the start of a step down. Maybe it does not start as accute but nonetheless it starts. I still believe the Artic air is underdone and yes the temps may rebound but will again take a step down next week and they may rebound but lesser in the mean and then will step done again. I maybe dead wrong but I have stuck with the stratospheric warm event for a month now along with the big pattern change...I double down

[CRASHWX]

I don’t say the aforementioned because I am a wishcaster or a model junkie...I say it because the past agrees with the current pattern and it is begainning to present itself and come to fruition. Now if it does not pan out then I will go back and look at the finer details and try to understand why. I love the weather and I love even more to understand it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

our local met says nothing to fear with the front this weekend, and I trust him. just as I suspected...and have been saying....we aren't getting anything worth writing home about this year....barely below freezing for a few hours is nothing special. you keep model watching more than 4 days out, you will keep getting disappointed.

I can’t stand posts like this that have no factual backup. It also keeps people away that don’t know much about weather as they let their guard down again.

You will be wrong and I’m 100% positive on that. When I look at our long term winter weather signals, you don’t get a better mix than what is on the horizon. Hell, this weekend is the first front of many. This setup is primed for a huge late January and February.

It’s easy to be negative and go with the norm with no factual basis. I’ll side with 30 years of weather watching and pro Mets.

I work in the O&G industry and we are being prepped for a brutal end of Winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well whatever pans out certainly doesn’t look to stick around. 1-2 days cold then right back to the mid upper 60’s for us by Tuesday. Our infamous roller coaster pattern will continue... wonder why we always get sick. Grrr.

I see one day in the 60s next week before we start heading back down. Welcome to Winter.... even after the fiercest of Winter fronts.

If you’re wishing for a week long plus event of freezing temps you’re wishing for something in record territory.

That big body of water south of us typically doesn’t allow for more than 48 hours of freezing weather. I think Houston’s record is 95 hours in 83.

[CRASHWX]

Well whatever pans out certainly doesn’t look to stick around. 1-2 days cold then right back to the mid upper 60’s for us by Tuesday. Our infamous roller coaster pattern will continue... wonder why we always get sick. Grrr.

I see one day in the 60s next week before we start heading back down. Welcome to Winter.... even after the fiercest of Winter fronts.

If you’re wishing for a week long plus event of freezing temps you’re wishing for something in record territory.

That big body of water south of us typically doesn’t allow for more than 48 hours of freezing weather. I think Houston’s record is 95 hours in 83.

EXACTLY!
Our winters are full of temp cycles and what’s coming is a mean cycle of -5 to -8 degrees in my opinion and that is in comparison to the coldest temps on average that are yet to come.