December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Forecast from a Seattle station on Sunday... Pretty sure wxman57 is in heaven with that Friday forecast....

[srainhoutx]

As Portastorm just posted...TX Dot Cam from the Lubbock area near I-27...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm still not sure why some voluntarily moves to the South Plains of Texas....

[srainhoutx]

^^^

Born and raised here in Houston, MontgomeryCoWx. I guess you other folks got here as fast as you could....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I was born and raised in Longview, TX and Kingsport, TN... I took a few visits out to Lubbock to visit some Tech friends. God, you couldn't give me a full scholly to convince me to move out there.

Good Meteorology school, but the whole area is undesirable.... aaand, their Football is mediocre.

I do like the fact they actually see Winter Weather though.

[srainhoutx]

As expected, the Euro Ensembles are in and suggest a further S and slower solution today. In fact a good number of the individual members appear to be a tad further SW with the upper trough/low and the ensemble mean suggest a rather cold and stormy pattern ahead during the week following Christmas day.

12192012 12Z Eruo Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif

12192012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

12192012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA168.gif

12192012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bring that low about 200 miles south and I'll be happy happy happy.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Amarillo regarding the Christmas Storm and why we just won't know until the weekend how things will develop:

CHRISTMAS DAY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT CLOSER ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT
THERE IS STILL LIMITED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AT THIS POINT...THINK
THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION IS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM CO TO CENTRAL OK. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH DIGS...COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE OK...NORHTERN...AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE DURING
THE DAY. GIVEN THE VERY BRIEF TIME PERIOD AND STILL RELATIVELY LOW
MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT IF ANYTHING DOES
HAPPEN IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THIS FORECAST HOWEVER COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FINALLY
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. GOING FORECAST SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if tonght could be stormy abead of the cold front.

[Ptarmigan]

The Ghost of Christmas Past could pay a visit on Christmas if it rains like in 2010 and 2011.

[Ptarmigan]

Forecast from a Seattle station on Sunday... Pretty sure wxman57 is in heaven with that Friday forecast....

This Friday is suppose to be the day that the world ends. Ot would hot for sure, enough to melt lead.

I do not think the world will end.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Numerous advisories issued for Thursday.

Red Flag Warning issued for all SE TX counties

Gale Warning for the coastal waters

Low Water Advisory for Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel

Fire Weather:
Powerful storm system and associated cold front will bring very strong winds and a significantly drier air mass to the region by early Thursday morning. Model guidance is showing winds 1000 ft above the surface in the 40-55mph range and some of this wind energy will be transported down after mid morning when stronger mixing develops. Widespread wind speeds of 20-35mph with gust to 40-45mph will be possible across the entire region from roughly 900am to 300pm. Winds are well into RFW criteria.

Other factors for critical fire weather would be very dry air and this will also be pouring into the area from the north with dewpoints falling into the 20’s and RH falling into the 18-25% range by late morning and continuing at those values through early evening.

Of more marginal concern is the state of the fuels and vegetation. Recent rainfall on Sunday did drop a good 1-2 inches over some areas and the KBDI values reflect the areas that saw this rainfall. Primary concern is for areas west of I-45 where rains this past weekend where lightest and rainfall has been low over the past few months. Fine fuels have been cured by freezes last week, but larger fuels are in better shape with 100-hr values fairly decent in this area. While fine fuels are largely ready to burn, temperatures in the 50’s may mitigate fire starts. Expect any scattered showers tonight to offer little affect on the finer fuels with amounts less than .25 of an inch.

Of concern and the main reason for the RFW is the very strong winds and potential for power line arching providing an ignition source. Any fire that does develop will be driven by very strong winds resulting in conditions very hard to contain. Air support will be minimal due to strong low level wind shear. Biggest threat looks to be grass fires as long lived crown runs look unlikely given the decent moisture in the larger fuels. There should be no outdoor burning or open flames on Thursday!

Winds should fall to below 10mph rapidly Thursday evening by 800pm and while very dry/low RH is expected on Friday (lower than Thursday), winds will be much weaker.

Marine:
Strong winds will drive current slightly above average tides out of the inland bays. ET surge modeling for Galveston Bay shows water levels falling 1-2 feet below MSL by midday Thursday under near gale force winds. The threat for vessel groundings will be increased in shallow areas and in the Houston Ship Channel. Winds should relax after midnight along the coast and veer ENE on Friday allowing tidal recovery.

Very hazardous marine conditions will be in place by early Thursday morning with seas building into the 7-12 foot range under sustained winds of 25-35mph with frequent gust over 40-45mph.

[tireman4]

I just noticed that we (IAH) have been on the high record daily temperature list for December 5 times. We just missed one day by one degree. Goodness. Now, I know we are getting a front tomorrow, but my runs ( the last two have been just brutal. Rough as a cub) have suffered. I would just like to be close to normal. LOL. Goodness gracious. Rant over. Back to your normally scheduled program.

[Katdaddy]

The colder weather is on the way Tireman making running very nice. Tornado for NE TX very soon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX/WESTERN AR/FAR SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 200107Z - 200200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR
ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THIS
REGION WITHIN THE HOUR /LIKELY BY 02Z/.

DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF A 996 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OR SLOW-MOVING MOVING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO...IN ADDITION TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND A PRECEDING DRY LINE ACROSS
OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE ARRIVAL OF CONSEQUENTIAL DPVA/MASS RESPONSE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A RECENT CONVECTIVE INCREASE HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED
IN LATIMER COUNTY OK PER RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 0115Z...AND MORE
ROBUSTLY IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.

THE 00Z FORT WORTH OBSERVED SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY
LITTLE CINH...WITH A RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROFILE AND MLCAPE
AROUND 300 J/KG. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OTHERWISE SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-LEVEL CINH EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WHERE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT.

WITH A PROBABLE INCREASE /QUICK AT THAT/ IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY MID-EVENING...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND RESULTANT 70+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A MIXED-MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE EVOLUTION OF
SMALL/FAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS TONIGHT...WHICH IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT BY VARIOUS HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING
GUIDANCE. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD BE THE MORE PREVALENT RISKS.

[srainhoutx]

A Tornado Watch as been issued until 2:00 AM roughly from a Sherman/Paris/Texarkana line to just W of Little Rock N to Springfield/Branson/Joplin MO back S to just E of Tulsa. A line of storms are developing from NW of Temple extending NE into the watch area. Stay safe tonight folks.

[ticka1]

where is the front right now?

[srainhoutx]

Just passing thru Dallas, ticka1. The winds are howling behind that front. Seeing many gusts in the mid 40 mph range and Pampa had a gust to 51 this past hour. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is up for our neighbors in NE TX as well. Bedtime. The night crew can follow developments with the models and such.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

0z GFS looks way too slow on the front and way too fast on NEward ejection of the low.. Not buying it

[Andrew]

00z euro continues with the southern and more aggressive solution compared to the gfs. The trough represented in the Euro suggests one that would extend all the way up into Canada filtering air straight south providing plenty of cold air advection. Looking at the moisture levels behind the fropa shows 850mb levels a little moist but 700mb levels look relatively dry. Farther north looks a little better for moisture levels but still doesn't look promising. Overall though we still don't have too much consensus between the two global models. Both models do continue to suggest the progressive pattern by pushing the colder air out relatively quickly with another mid level trough extended out west past the Rockies.

[srainhoutx]

The strong Canadian front is racing across the SE TX area at this hour. Power just went out up here in NW Harris County and winds are gusting in the 30+ MPH range as the skinny line of showers/storms are moving thru. Woke me up from a deep sleep...