January 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 12:27 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 11:24 am Winter isnt over , not by a long stretch, lets not start with that please folks lol
He does it every winter. Every one.
Yep.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:45 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:00 am Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.
Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.
Mid 30s for us in CLL. Pretty seasonable for January. There's a reinforcing front about the 17th. I'll take near normal at this point. 80s tomorrow and thursday.
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tireman4
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:45 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:00 am Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.
Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.
Few days ago my iPhone had 31 here Monday morning. Now showing 41. That’s a 10-degree swing.

NWS says 37.
Brazoriatx979
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Hearing all this chatter on 2k about the source region loading up and a cold blast is coming for the lower 48..s this going to be another case of a glancing blow and going east or is this one finally heading straight south and we get the full brunt of it
Stratton20
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The way its setup would favor the cold spilling into the central plains and south ( including texas) before bleeding east over time, we arent missing out this time, we just dont know how cold it will get yet ( though a + TNH with a massive - EPO ridge can lead to some big time cold potentially ) we also dont know if the STJ will be a player, but ensembles are suggesting an active southern storm track, chilly this weekend followed by bigger cold post 15th and beyond
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 07, 2026 1:41 pm The way its setup would favor the cold spilling into the central plains and south ( including texas) before bleeding east over time, we arent missing out this time, we just dont know how cold it will get yet ( though a + TNH with a massive - EPO ridge can lead to some big time cold potentially ) we also dont know if the STJ will be a player, but ensembles are suggesting an active southern storm track, chilly this weekend followed by bigger cold post 15th and beyond
Along with how cold will it get here, I’m wondering how long it will last. Also saw 12z GFS with our area having some accumulation of freezing rain a long ways out toward Jan 23.
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jasons2k
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 07, 2026 12:56 pm Hearing all this chatter on 2k about the source region loading up and a cold blast is coming for the lower 48..s this going to be another case of a glancing blow and going east or is this one finally heading straight south and we get the full brunt of it
Still looks like another glancing blow to me.

Remember we were told a cold late December was all but a forgone conclusion - some of the usual suspects started bringing-up 1983/1989 again and we all saw how that went. I had a pool party for Christmas.
Brazoriatx979
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Yup, im not counting those chickens just yet. We have all seen this multiple times with hype and then boom...Nada or just a little glance
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MontgomeryCoWx
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On a side note, our local paper did an analysis of rainfall since 1950 for me.

4th driest year in Weimar since 1950.

1950, 1954, 2011 were drier. Weimar had 26.54 inches in 2025.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Jan 07, 2026 12:12 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:45 am
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:00 am Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.
Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.
Few days ago my iPhone had 31 here Monday morning. Now showing 41. That’s a 10-degree swing.

NWS says 37.
Damn, definitely nothing like that here. Lowest I’ve seen on my app has been 39 for Sunday morning.
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don
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Models are showing a pattern that would support a winter storm during the 2nd half of January. Not set in stone yet but the signal is growing, and the MJO progression also adds some confidence to the pattern change. Interesting times ahead...
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