January 2026

[Cpv17]

Winter isnt over , not by a long stretch, lets not start with that please folks lol

He does it every winter. Every one.

Yep.

[DoctorMu]

Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.

Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.

Mid 30s for us in CLL. Pretty seasonable for January. There's a reinforcing front about the 17th. I'll take near normal at this point. 80s tomorrow and thursday.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[jasons2k]

Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.

Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.

Few days ago my iPhone had 31 here Monday morning. Now showing 41. That’s a 10-degree swing.

NWS says 37.

[Brazoriatx979]

Hearing all this chatter on 2k about the source region loading up and a cold blast is coming for the lower 48..s this going to be another case of a glancing blow and going east or is this one finally heading straight south and we get the full brunt of it

[Stratton20]

The way its setup would favor the cold spilling into the central plains and south ( including texas) before bleeding east over time, we arent missing out this time, we just dont know how cold it will get yet ( though a + TNH with a massive - EPO ridge can lead to some big time cold potentially ) we also dont know if the STJ will be a player, but ensembles are suggesting an active southern storm track, chilly this weekend followed by bigger cold post 15th and beyond

[sambucol]

The way its setup would favor the cold spilling into the central plains and south ( including texas) before bleeding east over time, we arent missing out this time, we just dont know how cold it will get yet ( though a + TNH with a massive - EPO ridge can lead to some big time cold potentially ) we also dont know if the STJ will be a player, but ensembles are suggesting an active southern storm track, chilly this weekend followed by bigger cold post 15th and beyond

Along with how cold will it get here, I’m wondering how long it will last. Also saw 12z GFS with our area having some accumulation of freezing rain a long ways out toward Jan 23.

[jasons2k]

Hearing all this chatter on 2k about the source region loading up and a cold blast is coming for the lower 48..s this going to be another case of a glancing blow and going east or is this one finally heading straight south and we get the full brunt of it

Still looks like another glancing blow to me.

Remember we were told a cold late December was all but a forgone conclusion - some of the usual suspects started bringing-up 1983/1989 again and we all saw how that went. I had a pool party for Christmas.

[Brazoriatx979]

Yup, im not counting those chickens just yet. We have all seen this multiple times with hype and then boom...Nada or just a little glance

[MontgomeryCoWx]

On a side note, our local paper did an analysis of rainfall since 1950 for me.

4th driest year in Weimar since 1950.

1950, 1954, 2011 were drier. Weimar had 26.54 inches in 2025.

[Cpv17]

Temps for next week keep trending upward. My forecast lows have gone from freezing to mid-40’s on the models and weather apps.

Temps were never forecasted to be in the 30’s for next week. At least not here.

Few days ago my iPhone had 31 here Monday morning. Now showing 41. That’s a 10-degree swing.

NWS says 37.

Damn, definitely nothing like that here. Lowest I’ve seen on my app has been 39 for Sunday morning.

[don]

Models are showing a pattern that would support a winter storm during the 2nd half of January. Not set in stone yet but the signal is growing, and the MJO progression also adds some confidence to the pattern change. Interesting times ahead...

We have 3 freezes in the forecast this weekend, that will bring us up to 20 official freezes for the season so far.

[Brazoriatx979]

Models are showing a pattern that would support a winter storm during the 2nd half of January. Not set in stone yet but the signal is growing, and the MJO progression also adds some confidence to the pattern change. Interesting times ahead...

We have 3 freezes in the forecast this weekend, that will bring us up to 20 official freezes for the season so far.

For the northern half of the state

[Stratton20]

No, the kind of pattern Don mentioned that modes are showing could support a winter storm further south than just north texas, a lot to watch in the 2nd half of january

[Cpv17]

Models are showing a pattern that would support a winter storm during the 2nd half of January. Not set in stone yet but the signal is growing, and the MJO progression also adds some confidence to the pattern change. Interesting times ahead...

We have 3 freezes in the forecast this weekend, that will bring us up to 20 official freezes for the season so far.

For the northern half of the state

Don’t be such a pessimist. Let it play out.

[don]

Models are showing a pattern that would support a winter storm during the 2nd half of January. Not set in stone yet but the signal is growing, and the MJO progression also adds some confidence to the pattern change. Interesting times ahead...

We have 3 freezes in the forecast this weekend, that will bring us up to 20 official freezes for the season so far.

For the northern half of the state

Not necessarily, its too early to know the magnitude and location of any potential storm. The pattern does look interesting though. I suspect there's going to be some fun model runs over the next week +. I'm watching the 17th-20th time frame at this point. For our first potential winter system. The pattern the models are showing would theoretically support multiple opportunists for wintry precip during the 2nd half of the month.

[DoctorMu]

Day 15-20 on the MJO

EPO is improving.

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_65.png

(205.98 KiB) Not downloaded yet

[DoctorMu]

None of the Mesos except RGEM are buying into significant rain on Friday with the FROPA. Still seeing 60-80% on NWS and phone apps.

It's been dry since June here. The ground is really hard down a few feet. I'm may have to mow then water! lol

After the FROPA there will be seasonable temps. We might get a frost/freeze on Sunday night. I think that would make 6 or 7 IMFY. The average number of nights at 32°F or below per winter season is 13. So, even though the AVERAGE temps have been 10-20°F above average for most days - the number of cold nights is about average. Another La Niña winter.

However, as in any La Niña winter, there is always the chance of an arctic or polar jailbreak. We'll see.

[tireman4]

Today and Tomorrow

[Brazoriatx979]

Wells model's suxk today lol thats why I never get excited anymore lol