Wx Infinity Forums

Paul wrote:nice big fat ridge you should see in summer....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096l.gif

You're back! I see you over at 2k a lot but you need to check in here too


Caribbean bound at 132:

Since Gaston weakened to a tropical wave, it may have a better chance of not recurving and heading into the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf once it re-develops.

yeah Andrew...I have been taken a vacation from you guys for awhile....but I am back....


Gaston is crawling....got to think it will be faster than this....6 days and finally entering the carib....sheesh...I dont know if I can watch it that long....

Paul wrote:yeah Andrew...I have been taken a vacation from you guys for awhile....but I am back....


Gaston is crawling....got to think it will be faster than this....6 days and finally entering the carib....sheesh...I dont know if I can watch it that long....

Yea it seems like forever. This could be a threat for the gulf. Also the BOC is going to be something to watch along with the storms behind Gaston. Should be a very long couple of weeks.

174:

moving over the islands....probably would get ripped up pretty good....lets see if it makes the next trof...

prob going to recurve:

it does recurve off the EC and then into NJ at 312hr...

Paul wrote:it does recurve off the EC and then into NJ at 312hr...

Yea I noticed from the 18z this run showed the trof a lot stronger, pushing the ridge west. This is 336 hours out though! 336 hours!!!!! That is a long time for this storm to track and not to mention the error spread that is going to come with that.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

not nice.

How much faith do ya'll have in the recurving?

No faith at all. Not this time. With the other systems, a recurve was more likely than not. This time, it is just the opposite. Can it still happen... Yes! It is going to take a really strong trough that digs deep, and a weakened ridge. G. may come in too far south to get picked up, and we may have a weak system entering the Caribbean. Once these systems get into the central and western Caribbean, path prospects change away from an Atlantic storm. What we have seen so far is these Caribbean systems going into Mexico, and GOM systems going poof. We'll see how it goes with this system. Notice the large ULL/spin in the Gulf over the past few days. If that were to stick around as G. moves closer in....


More later...

Early Track Again (Caribbean)

Gaston is once again finding that deep convection

Intersting 5 day QPF

That QPF chart would fit well in the Gulf thread.

srainhoutx wrote:That QPF chart would fit well in the Gulf thread.

Took your advice Steve. You can remove it from this tread as it is now in the Gulf thread if you think that would be best.