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Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 4:11 pm
by sambucol
wxman57 wrote:sambucol wrote:When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?
The best place to go for an MJO update is the weekly MJO update link here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt
You'll need PowerPoint to view it. Basically, there's no sign of a true MJO for the next few weeks and probably not through the first week of September. It's weak and in the Asian region. Typically, an MJO signal takes a good 30 days to reach from there to the East Pacific. But since this one is weak, it probably won't make it. Shear, however, is steadily falling across the Tropics.
Ok. Thanks, Wxman57.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 6:43 pm
by srainhoutx
ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:07 am
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 071308
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1308 UTC SAT AUG 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100807 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100807 1200 100808 0000 100808 1200 100809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 88.3W 18.0N 90.3W 18.9N 92.4W 19.7N 94.4W
BAMD 17.3N 88.3W 18.0N 90.3W 18.5N 92.2W 18.9N 94.3W
BAMM 17.3N 88.3W 18.3N 90.2W 19.0N 92.2W 19.8N 94.3W
LBAR 17.3N 88.3W 18.2N 90.5W 19.3N 92.7W 20.5N 94.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100809 1200 100810 1200 100811 1200 100812 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 96.6W 22.7N 100.8W 24.1N 105.0W 24.7N 110.3W
BAMD 19.3N 96.5W 20.0N 101.0W 20.4N 106.1W 20.4N 112.1W
BAMM 20.6N 96.4W 22.3N 100.7W 22.9N 106.0W 22.5N 113.8W
LBAR 21.5N 97.2W 24.4N 101.4W 26.1N 104.8W 26.5N 108.6W
SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 72KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 30KTS 27KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 83.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:24 pm
by srainhoutx
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:55 am
by biggerbyte
Unlike Colin, this system pretty much has one route. Mexico will be it's last stop. Westward bound will be in order for any system in the gulf and Caribbean right now. Things are getting dry in these parts, slowly but surely, and some have been dry previous to. We need some rain.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 6:30 am
by ticka1
I thought the weather pattern was changing...
Need some rain other then the fly by shower.....
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:49 am
by srainhoutx
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008081512
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END