August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[don]

12z tropical models, not liking the trend...

If grace takes that route through Hispaniola, she's done for.

Not necessarily, weak systems without a defined center tend to not get disrupted as much as a stronger storm would. I actually think given the conditions in the gulf its almost likely that even if Grace weakens into a remnant low, she will reform again once in the gulf like Fred has.

[cperk]

I saw on another chat that Grace is no threat to the Gulf Coast, and she would crash into Mexico. I thought that’s was premature, and since it was coming from the board owner, somewhat irresponsible to put that out there.

I totally agree it is irresponsible to make such a claim so early and i will go a bit further and say it can be dangerous because some people are gonna believe it.

[Cromagnum]

12z tropical models, not liking the trend...

If grace takes that route through Hispaniola, she's done for.

Not necessarily, weak systems without a defined center tend to not get disrupted as much as a stronger storm would. I actually think given the conditions in the gulf its almost likely that even if Grace weakens into a remnant low, she will reform again once in the gulf like Fred has.

Yeah, the only wrinkle in my thought is that the undisturbed gulf is basically rocket fuel right now.

[don]

So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.

Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.

This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.

I just noticed that, NHC now has it getting up to 65 mph at the end of the forecast track.

[Stratton20]

I dont even know why someone would say grace is no threat to the gulf coast when literally most of the model guidance says it is

[Dls2010r]

Watch. Wait. Be prepared.

[cperk]

Per NHC Grace has slowed it's forward speed and that may allow for some organization.

[jasons2k]

We had a 60% chance of rain today. Advertised for days. Discussions about excessive rainfall.

And now Poof! 40% now.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k well I mean most storms usually start firing up in the hear of the day after 1 pm, it may not be a bust yet

[sambucol]

So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.

Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.

This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.

Is Pasch with the NHC?

[sambucol]

So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.

Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.

This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.

Is Pasch with the NHC?

[Ptarmigan]

GEFS


EURO Ensemble


Most have Grace entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.

[Texaspirate11]

So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.

Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.

This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.

Is Pasch with the NHC?

Yes he is

[sambucol]

So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.

Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.

This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.

Is Pasch with the NHC?

Yes he is

Thank you. What I will be doing this afternoon.

[Katdaddy]

Yep, this is the time to have your hurricane plan in place. Hopefully we will have a better idea Wednesday regarding any threat for the Upper TX Coast. One concern I have is the very warm GOM waters.

[sambucol]

Yep, this is the time to have your hurricane plan in place. Hopefully we will have a better idea Wednesday regarding any threat for the Upper TX Coast. One concern I have is the very warm GOM waters.

The GOM temps are what I find concerning.

[DoctorMu]

I'm not sure if Grace is even a depression at this time.

NHC says its a tropical storm...although disorganized

Pretty weaksauce.

I'd take a long drink of lemonade, though.

My concern is a(nother) CAT1+ Louisiana storm, leaving us hot (100°F+), windy, and dry.

[Stratton20]

IMO the center of Grace might be farther SW than what tropical tidbits shows, at least thats what it seems to me under that other big blow up of convection to the south

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.AVIATION...
Look for an increase in shra/tstm coverage near CLL as cluster of
precip sags sewd toward the region. Elsewhere, expect sct
shra/tstms to begin developing across the remainder of the area
in the next few hours as we get a little more heating and
seabreeze develops. Stronger cells will be capable of producing
some brief heavy downpours and some 20-30kt gusts. Precip should
taper off 7-10pm with the loss of heating. There was some shallow,
patchy LIFR fog around UTS late last night and early this
morning. The possibility exists for similar setup tonight in that
general area. Otherwise, outside of any convection, VFR conditions
should prevail thru the period at most TAF sites. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 75 94 / 40 30 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 77 95 / 40 30 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 90 81 90 / 40 30 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

57 on storm2k says this is going to Mexico. Won’t be a threat for us.