August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
The 0z Icon has Grace going through the channel with a very stout ridge above it. Crazy setup! Models are all over the place.
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TexasBreeze
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Finally rained at my place. None since 7/29th!
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Stratton20
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CPV17 both the 00z CMC and GFS runs both show a landfall near Corpus Christi around 180 hours from now
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some patchy ground fog has developed around UTS this morning, but
expecting this to dissipate through the next hour or so.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light
and variable winds will become predominately north to
northeasterly during the mid morning and continue through sunset.
A weak boundary is draped across the region which will help
create scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across
the region affecting every terminal. These thunderstorms will
continue through the evening, then dissipate after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A lull in the precipitation will occur
overnight tonight, then expecting another round to scattered
thunderstorms to develop on Monday.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 544 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday]...
The boundary that moved into the area last night will remain stalled
out across the area this afternoon. This boundary, while diffuse,
will be the axis where most of the showers and thunderstorms will
develop with the help of daytime heating. Convective temperatures
this afternoon will be between 92 and 94 degrees which will be
easily reached. The front will be draped along the I-10 corridor,
which is where the focus of the afternoon precipitation will be.
Though areas near the stationary front will have the highest chances
of experiencing some thunderstorms, there will be a chance anywhere
across the region. PWATs this afternoon will be climbing to near 2
inches, so the storms the develop will be able to produce some
locally heavy rain. Once the storms develop, they will also not move
much and will essentially just have to rain themselves out. So,
combine little storm motion with the heavy rainfall, we may have to
be on the look out for some localized street ponding in poor
drainage areas. The WPC has place the area in a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall today. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern
this afternoon. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will
diminish after sunset, but we will be back at Monday afternoon with
the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Afternoon high temperatures today and on Monday will be slightly
cooler than yesterday thanks to increased cloud cover with highs in
the low to mid 90s across the area. Tonight`s low temperatures will
dip down into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, and then
only down to near 80 along the immediate coast.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Monday night the diffuse frontal boundary should be lifting
northward and could still see some very isolated storms but
Tuesday will see scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
coast and in the northeastern areas along and east of the stronger
capping. Loss of heating should end rain chances Tuesday early
evening. Diurnal pattern of storms continues Wednesday through
Friday though as upper ridge builds in rain chances gradually
lessen from west to east. By Friday rain chances drop to a measly
15-25 percent in the Houston area. Temperatures will be on the
climb as well Wednesday through Friday. Highs in the low to mid
90s creeping up to the mid to upper 90s during this period.
Remnants to Fred still expected to move over the far eastern Gulf
and possibly get reinvigorated before making landfall in the FL
Panhandle/MS area. Tropical storm Grace should bring tropical
storm conditions to Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today then
continue moving northwest up the Caribbean island chain to Cuba
late Wednesday. How organized it remains after passing through the
islands is still a big question. Some of the guidance is
indicating the system will meander out into the Gulf and move
northwest or west and this may eventually bring an increase in
deeper moisture and weaken the cap by the weekend. But this is
still a big question mark. Stay tuned.
45
.MARINE...
East and northeast winds today with frontal boundary hung up over
SETX and weak high pressure at the surface backing winds across
the waters. The front lifts north late Monday into Tuesday and
southeasterly flow resumes. Winds should be on the lighter side
this week with 5-10 knots being fairly common and at times may
reach 10-15 kts. Seas of 1-3 feet slowly building to 2-4 feet by
mid week. Main issue is where is TS Grace going next weekend and
at this point it is still to early to have any confidence.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 94 / 50 30 40 10 30
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 77 95 / 60 40 50 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 90 / 30 30 30 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 151142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some patchy ground fog has developed around UTS this morning, but
expecting this to dissipate through the next hour or so.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light
and variable winds will become predominately north to
northeasterly during the mid morning and continue through sunset.
A weak boundary is draped across the region which will help
create scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across
the region affecting every terminal. These thunderstorms will
continue through the evening, then dissipate after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A lull in the precipitation will occur
overnight tonight, then expecting another round to scattered
thunderstorms to develop on Monday.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 544 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday]...
The boundary that moved into the area last night will remain stalled
out across the area this afternoon. This boundary, while diffuse,
will be the axis where most of the showers and thunderstorms will
develop with the help of daytime heating. Convective temperatures
this afternoon will be between 92 and 94 degrees which will be
easily reached. The front will be draped along the I-10 corridor,
which is where the focus of the afternoon precipitation will be.
Though areas near the stationary front will have the highest chances
of experiencing some thunderstorms, there will be a chance anywhere
across the region. PWATs this afternoon will be climbing to near 2
inches, so the storms the develop will be able to produce some
locally heavy rain. Once the storms develop, they will also not move
much and will essentially just have to rain themselves out. So,
combine little storm motion with the heavy rainfall, we may have to
be on the look out for some localized street ponding in poor
drainage areas. The WPC has place the area in a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall today. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern
this afternoon. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will
diminish after sunset, but we will be back at Monday afternoon with
the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Afternoon high temperatures today and on Monday will be slightly
cooler than yesterday thanks to increased cloud cover with highs in
the low to mid 90s across the area. Tonight`s low temperatures will
dip down into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, and then
only down to near 80 along the immediate coast.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Monday night the diffuse frontal boundary should be lifting
northward and could still see some very isolated storms but
Tuesday will see scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
coast and in the northeastern areas along and east of the stronger
capping. Loss of heating should end rain chances Tuesday early
evening. Diurnal pattern of storms continues Wednesday through
Friday though as upper ridge builds in rain chances gradually
lessen from west to east. By Friday rain chances drop to a measly
15-25 percent in the Houston area. Temperatures will be on the
climb as well Wednesday through Friday. Highs in the low to mid
90s creeping up to the mid to upper 90s during this period.
Remnants to Fred still expected to move over the far eastern Gulf
and possibly get reinvigorated before making landfall in the FL
Panhandle/MS area. Tropical storm Grace should bring tropical
storm conditions to Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today then
continue moving northwest up the Caribbean island chain to Cuba
late Wednesday. How organized it remains after passing through the
islands is still a big question. Some of the guidance is
indicating the system will meander out into the Gulf and move
northwest or west and this may eventually bring an increase in
deeper moisture and weaken the cap by the weekend. But this is
still a big question mark. Stay tuned.
45
.MARINE...
East and northeast winds today with frontal boundary hung up over
SETX and weak high pressure at the surface backing winds across
the waters. The front lifts north late Monday into Tuesday and
southeasterly flow resumes. Winds should be on the lighter side
this week with 5-10 knots being fairly common and at times may
reach 10-15 kts. Seas of 1-3 feet slowly building to 2-4 feet by
mid week. Main issue is where is TS Grace going next weekend and
at this point it is still to early to have any confidence.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 94 / 50 30 40 10 30
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 77 95 / 60 40 50 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 90 / 30 30 30 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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Kingwood36
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Hmmmm...
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The trends are not my friend
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Kingwood36
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Kingwood36
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06z Euro ensembles.
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I'm not sure if Grace is even a depression at this time.
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Kingwood36
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It definitely isn't well organized right now. For continuity sake I'd guess they will keep it as a TS while noting the poor structure. There won't be a recon flight till this afternoon along with the upper level flight this evening.
Still a mixed bag where it will go. 'Appears' that it's moving more W with such an ill defined center and may be the only way it survives without getting tangled up in Hispaniola. At this point can't see it getting N of there in the short term.
Still a mixed bag where it will go. 'Appears' that it's moving more W with such an ill defined center and may be the only way it survives without getting tangled up in Hispaniola. At this point can't see it getting N of there in the short term.
Thanks Scott747.Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:53 am It definitely isn't well organized right now. For continuity sake I'd guess they will keep it as a TS while noting the poor structure. There won't be a recon flight till this afternoon along with the upper level flight this evening.
Still a mixed bag where it will go. 'Appears' that it's moving more W with such an ill defined center and may be the only way it survives without getting tangled up in Hispaniola. At this point can't see it getting N of there in the short term.
12z tropical models, not liking the trend...
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Stratton20
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If this thing continues on its westward trend and avoids the mountains or those islands, we could have a big problem in the Gulf assuming a defined center formed, Grace has the convection to take off, but yep Don this trend is definitely a little bit concerning
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TexasBreeze
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Things can change quickly for sure. Fred doesn't look too bad now (a ts again) after just one night. Grace does have lots of convection and could reform multiple times between now and after going over the islands. Just a watch and see for now.
I saw on another chat that Grace is no threat to the Gulf Coast, and she would crash into Mexico. I thought that’s was premature, and since it was coming from the board owner, somewhat irresponsible to put that out there.
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Stratton20
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TexasBreeze I guess you could say Fred came back from the dead haha
So Pasch who is generally conservative has a strengthening and strong tropical storm in the central gulf with a general heading towards the mid and upper texas coast at the end of the forecast.
Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.
This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.
Now with that said. That is about as low confidence a forecast can be right now until Grace clears Hispaniola and what the structure of the storm is. Also the steering currents can change on a dime until we get a better handle on the orientation and strength of the ridging and if any weakness upstream were to appear.
This is a day to take a deep breath and double check your checklist. Probably won't be till tomorrow afternoon before we have some clarity. Also keep in mind it won't till late next week into the weekend before we were to see any potential impacts.