January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Big Marathon Day ahead this Sunday. HGX is already warning the participants. Time to start those winterizing plans, if you haven't already...

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 21m
Cold Sunday, here is a look at the what the wind chill readings may be early Sunday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Cool weather will transition to increasingly warmer and wetter toward the end of the week before a strong arctic cold front arrives Saturday.

Mostly clear across the region this morning with some scattered low level stratus trying to work southward from the north and clouds increasing over the coastal bend due to a weak disturbance over S TX. Clouds will increase starting tonight and into Tuesday as a weak costal trough develops over the NW Gulf of Mexico and pushes moisture northward over the surface cool air. Will likely see some showers develop by Tuesday evening into Wednesday for areas south of I-10 as the coastal trough drifts NE. Think the majority of this activity will remain south of I-10 during this period. Overall not much change from Tuesday onward with Pacific moisture moving into the area from the SW and a general overrunning type pattern in place. Warm front may try and move northward late Thursday into Friday allowing a warmer and wetter pattern to evolve.

Main item of interest will be the strong cold front that will move across the region on Saturday. Upper air pattern over the US will undergo amplification with a ridge of high pressure building along the US west coast into Alaska and this will dislodge cold air over NW Canada and send it southward into the central US late this week. A fast moving arctic frontal boundary will surge southward down the front range of the Rockies Thursday and Friday and blast across TX early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this front. Post frontal air mass will be cold with a good push of polar air to arrive across the state on Saturday. Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures into the 40’s and 30’s Saturday afternoon along with NW winds of 15-25mph. Winds will remain up on Saturday night, but continued strong cold air advection will drive the freezing line likely to I-10. This will likely be an advective type freeze which tend to be fairly damaging to vegetation around this area. Arctic high settles into the region on Sunday and even with clear skies temperatures only warm into the 30’s and 40’s for highs. Sunday night potentially could be the coldest of the event with widespread freeze all the way to the coast and likely hard freeze (mid 20’s or lower) for many inland locations. Plenty of time to fine tune the temperatures…but be prepared…as the cold is coming.

[CRASHWX]

You know Mr. Srain you do a great job at articulating the weather! Not only that when you put information up u can completely discuss and explain things. Anyone can hijack material but it a whole other thing to not only explain but teach! Looking forward your to your many post here in the near future

[CRASHWX]

06397C27-A753-4A99-89C4-9CD41E0B692A.png

THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO LOCK IN THRU MARCH. DOES IT HAPPEN? GO SRAIN!

[BlueJay]

I hope we don't have temperatures in the 20s and below.
Hurry up Spring!

[Kingwood36]

Hopefully we just dont get the cold and nothing else...we need moisture with these rounds if cold air, but it's usually our luck we either get the cold and no moisture or we have enough moisture but it's not cold enough

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
922 AM CST Mon Jan 14 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

High pressure over the southern Plains continues to support light
northerly winds over SE Texas. Satellite imagery and obs show 2
different cloud decks...one MVFR ceiling deck over the northern
areas and a VFR 5000ft deck back to the SW. MVFR ceilings to the
north should be eroding through the day while VFR deck should
continue to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours. Cloud cover may
impact temperatures but where skies are clear, temps could get a
little higher today. High temperatures in the mid 50s looks on
track. The rest of the forecast will be evaluated with the 12Z
guidance but looks like a couple chances of rain this week with
winter making an appearance for a couple of days over the weekend.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 549 AM CST Mon Jan 14 2019/...

.DISCUSSION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Stratus cloud deck continues to very slowly move southward from
the north producing BKN/OVC cigs at 020 and 070 from CXO
northward. Tranquil weather conditions with N-NE winds will
prevail today gradually becoming more east. Cigs are expected to
lower again near the end of the TAF period but should remain
mostly VFR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST Mon Jan 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Cold weekend coming.

High pressure over TX this morning maintaining the cool dry
northerly flow this morning. The ridge will slide east and
southeast today keeping the area dry with some sunshine this
morning (except the north where the incredibly persistent trapped
moisture beneath the frontal inversion will linger early this
morning) helping to warm the afternoon into the 50s across the
area.

Tonight high pressure still over E TX and should keep it cool
again. Tuesday the high will be over LA/MS with east and
southeasterly flow starting to increase the low level moisture
while mid levels start to moisten up with isentropic lift as subtropical
jet starts pulling Pacific moisture across TX. Expect steady warm
up Tuesday-Tuesday night and Wednesday. Coastal troughing along
the Lower Texas Coast will further enhance the increase in
cloudiness across the region into Wednesday and start to increase
the rain chances across the south before shifting east. Some models
now depicting a brief cold frontal passage Thursday that gets near
the coast before retreating back north. Steep increase in
temperatures as well modified airmass surges in off the Gulf
Thursday night/Friday. Rain chances look like primarily in 20-40
percent range Thursday-Friday.

Arctic cold front will plunge south Saturday and should move into
SETX Saturday with falling temperatures in the afternoon (if the
front speeds up could start falling during the morning hours
Saturday). Moisture pooled ahead of the front and impressive
instability should support a swath of showers and thunderstorms
moving through with the front. The cold air arrives and ramps up
the winds with wind chill readings tumbling into the 30s in the
afternoon across the north and 40s south by late Saturday
afternoon. Winds howl Saturday night near the coast and Sunday
morning will see widespread temperatures of 25-32 with wind chill
readings of 15-22! Maybe colder. The temperatures on Sunday will
struggle to rise and will probably spend most of the day in the
30-40 degree range. This high pressure system will park over the
area Monday morning and by then with clear skies. Monday
temperatures will be at or below freezing all the way to the
coast. Galveston island may get close to freezing. Hard freeze
warnings looking like a reasonable bet.

45

MARINE...
Seas of 2-3 feet and N-NE winds will prevail today. Winds will
become more easterly on Tuesday and onshore flow is expected to
return Wednesday. The combination of onshore flow and a coastal
trough moving through the Upper Texas Gulf waters will result in
periods of shower activity late Tuesday into the first half of the
weekend. A cold front is expected to move into the Gulf waters
late Friday and Saturday, resulting in a surge of winds and
developing seas late Saturday and Sunday.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 51 37 56 46 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
Houston (IAH) 54 39 58 49 63 / 0 0 0 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 52 47 57 53 62 / 0 0 10 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...Overpeck

[txbear]

Have to say that the GOES 16 Visible looks fascinating with a large blanket across the western two-thirds with a very distinct border.

[Cpv17]

McFarland signature beginning to show up on the models.

[Kingwood36]

McFarland signature beginning to show up on the models.

That means?

[tireman4]

Well, the pros can help you on this one..but this is the definition, in layman's terms...McFarland Signature, an upper-level air pattern over Canada that signals Arctic winds and ice pushing deep into South Texas.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro trended a tad bit weaker with the high coming out of Canada. Down from 1049mb to 1047mb. Therefore temps came in a few degrees warmer than the 0z run.

[CRASHWX]

McFarland signature beginning to show up on the models.

That means?

Basically it is a certain atmospheric set-up that happens about 18,000 feet or so that signals an Artic outbreak that can drive all the way to the South Texas Valley region. Or something like that...somebody else can propably give more detailed explanation.

[CRASHWX]

Models do not handle Artic air well...just an observation

[Cpv17]

[Cpv17]

Models do not handle Artic air well...just an observation

I agree 100%. The models are really struggling with the middle of next week right now. Neither the GFS nor the Euro have another strong front coming through. Just a weak one. And this weekends front doesn’t really appear to be anything out of normal for the mid part of January that would wow you. The high pressures that are building up in Canada and pushing south don’t really appear to be anything out of normal. I mean, high pressures in the 1040’s are strong, don’t get me wrong, but that’s not really that strong at the same time. Certainly not strong enough to wow anyone, but if we can time it up right, however, it would be strong enough for someone in Texas to get some wintry weather which is ultimately what most of us want.

[CRASHWX]

1ACEAA04-2D3F-4404-8914-E891950B68A3.png

THIS DID HOWEVER SHOW UP ON 2-M GEFS

[CRASHWX]

If the blocking locks in then the heavy Artic will take a more southern path in my opinion...no doubt the east coast is gonna get hammered due to its position but just think if we have temps consistently 5 to 7 degrees below normal as a mean for the next two months...that will be a ruff winter and we will most likely not escape with out winter weather event or two...just hope it’s not ice and is a nice fluffy snow! Lol nonetheless if some pro guys are right we are in for a rough ride and it’s been it the cards for a while now.

[Cpv17]

1ACEAA04-2D3F-4404-8914-E891950B68A3.pngTHIS DID HOWEVER SHOW UP ON 2-M GEFS

That actually looks really good for an ensemble mean. About the best I’ve seen yet. Much better than most of the op runs I’ve seen.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12z EPS








12z GEFS






Very similar. That would deliver the goods. I'm not paying too much attention to the operationals right now.