JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19685
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs and the Day 8-14 Outlook suggest normal temperatures with a bit above normal precipitation. Some of those analogs years do raise an eyebrow tropically speaking. ;)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

David Paul just taught me (and all of us KHOU Weather report viewers) about the Stevenson's Screen. He also had a picture of one. :geek:

Google says that "A Stevenson screen (also known as an instrument shelter) is a meteorological screen to shield instruments against precipitation and direct heat radiation from outside sources, while still allowing air to circulate freely around them. It forms part of a standard weather station.Apr 1, 2016."

David Paul also advised that IAH reached 89F today but maybe tomorrow it will be 90.

Tune in tomorrow...
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2517
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

A beautiful pre-Summer SE TX day with a great sunset on the way. This evening we have another tropical disturbance over the SE GOM but it has only a 10% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days however it will bring more tropical moisture to S FLA.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4270
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs and the Day 8-14 Outlook suggest normal temperatures with a bit above normal precipitation. Some of those analogs years do raise an eyebrow tropically speaking. ;)
1979 had Tropical Storm Claudette. 1989 and 2001 had Tropical Storm Allison. 2007 was a wet summer.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2517
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

The Summer-like pattern continues across SE TX as we await our first official 90F day at IAH.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19685
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

After a bit of a lull in activity over the last few days…rain chances will increase over the weekend.

Upper level shear axis and weak upper level low located over the NW Gulf of Mexico off the TX coast will gradually lift northward over the next 72 hours. This feature will help to reduce the already weak capping in place and lower convective trigger temperatures into the mid and upper 80’s. Additionally, deep tropical moisture will surge into the coastal areas on Friday and remain across the region into the weekend.

Seabreeze front development along the coast each morning will move inland during the day with showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary. Looking for the most widespread activity Saturday and Sunday with coverage of 40-50% over the region. It is summertime so the overall severe threat with this activity is on the low side. Could see some brief heavy rainfall with slow storm motions and any cell mergers, but nothing like this area has been through over the last several weeks.

Summer upper level ridging will attempt to develop over the southern US next week, but looks week and will likely not be strong enough to shut off rain chances. Will hold on to the daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances around 30% Monday-Thursday of next week.

Temperatures remain “cool” for this time of year with IAH stilling not having reached 90 degree this year. Today will likely be the last day we could possibly hit 90, before increased clouds and rain chances keep afternoon highs in the mid or upper 80’s over the weekend. Wet grounds and green vegetation are helping to keep the temperatures cooler than normal.

Brazos River:

Extensive flooding continues along the lower Brazos basin in Brazoria County south of Rosharon. Many areas between the Brazos River and Oyster Creek are inundated with numerous roadways closed and many homes flooded. The river has crested except for near Lake Jackson and will began a very slow fall over the next 3-6 days. Conditions will be slow to improve where water has pooled in areas that are very low and will take weeks to drain or evaporate.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 7086
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

It is 88°F at IAH now. The sea breeze showers remain to the south and west. Today might be the day.
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

I know our thermometer doesn't count, but we have 92F currently with a bit of a breeze. (kind of summery 8-) )
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 7086
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote:It is 88°F at IAH now. The sea breeze showers remain to the south and west. Today might be the day.

Peaked at 89°F again. Big thunderhead over Columbus with clouds that stretch back over IAH and Humble now. A swing and a miss!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19685
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Looks like no 90F at IAH today with all the high cirrus clouds from the thunderstorms to our SW. Active weather pattern continues into the weekend as PW's increase to near or above 2 inches. A weak shortwave moves across the Region on Sunday increasing the rain and storm chances further.

Interestingly the Global models suggest a very unusually deep trough settling across our Region later next week. Both the European and GFS schemes are suggesting such a potential, so it will be worth monitoring as such a development at the upper levels would mean cooler and possibly very unsettled weather.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
TexasBreeze
Posts: 1009
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Thought it peaked at 89, but I heard it did hit 90 in an in between obs at 12:39pm today. (Preliminary). The streak is over...

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=hgx
Click the yellow go button.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4270
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:Looks like no 90F at IAH today with all the high cirrus clouds from the thunderstorms to our SW. Active weather pattern continues into the weekend as PW's increase to near or above 2 inches. A weak shortwave moves across the Region on Sunday increasing the rain and storm chances further.

Interestingly the Global models suggest a very unusually deep trough settling across our Region later next week. Both the European and GFS schemes are suggesting such a potential, so it will be worth monitoring as such a development at the upper levels would mean cooler and possibly very unsettled weather.
A cut off low perhaps? The last time that happened in the summer, it was very wet. That was 2007.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2517
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Expect scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to pop up each day through the weekend across SE TX. It won't be a wash out and most showers and thunderstorms will dissipate as daytime heating begins to fade each evening. Some widely scattered showers offshore this morning.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19685
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Appears a surge of deeper tropical moisture will arrive over the weekend as a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea moves along in the Easterly flow. There is also a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) low wrapped up over the Caribbean moving along the flow. The shear axis along the Texas Coast will enhance thunderstorm development this afternoon with some heating and the seabreeze.

Image
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 6025
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101425
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
925 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.UPDATE...


&&

.DISCUSSION...
12z soundings look conducive for shra/tsra today with PW values
between 1.80 and 2.10 inches. The deeper moisture this morning is
over the eastern zones. The 12z LCH sounding shows a deep
saturated layer from the sfc to 500 mb while the 12z CRP
soundings shows some drying above 700 mb. Convective temps are 82
degrees at LCH and around 85 degrees at CRP. 12z 850 mb analysis
shows a weak trough extending from about SHV to LRD and deep 850
mb moisture over SE into deep south Texas. At 300 mb, a weak
trough axis extends from SE Arkansas into E Texas and another
deeper trough axis extends from SW OK into deep south Texas. Lift
provided by the two troughs coupled with abundant moisture and low
convective temps should allow for another active sea breeze day.
Have raised PoPs to high end chance today. The only factor
working against higher rain chances today is the upper flow looks
somewhat confluent over East Texas. At this time, feel the other
factors will more than compensate for the weakly confluent flow.
Have leaned toward an HRRR/RAP blend for the remainder of the day.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Outside of some patchy MVFR fog near CLL/LBX/CXO dissipating by
mid-morning, expect VFR conditions to prevail for all terminals
through the TAF period. Streamer showers along the coast early
this morning are expected to spread inland by late morning with
daytime heating. A mid-level weakness will shift east of the
region through the day, but will help provide enough lift as it
does for isolated thunderstorm development near
CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX by mid-afternoon. Have included a VCTS mention
for these sites with TEMPO groups for thunder possibly needed in
later TAFs. Stronger cells will be capable of brief heavy rain
leading to MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings as well as gusty
winds. Expect any convection that develops to dissipate with loss
of heating later this evening. Similar to this morning, streamer
showers are expected to develop near GLS toward the end of the TAF
period.

Otherwise, light and variable to light and northeasterly winds
are expected to veer to the southeast by mid-morning and increase
to 8-11 knots. Light and variable winds are expected again
overnight. Some stronger gusts (around 20 knots or less) are
possible from mixing during peak heating, but will not include a
gust group as gusts should remain within 10 knots.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing fcst is in good shape and just making mostly insignificant
tweaks to the package this morning. As is somewhat typical this
time of year, we`re starting to see some echos on radar popping up
offshore and near the coast. Suspect this will continue for the
next several hours...then eventually spread inland late in the
morning and afternoon hours with daytime heating. Most parameters
would support decent coverage with PW`s between 1.8-2.0",
weak/breakable capping, convective temps ~87F, etc. But limiting
factor might be a somewhat confluent flow aloft. Models are in all
different camps regarding coverage but think current 20-40% (with
higher pops in S/SE zones) will probably be sufficient. Had some
reports of funnels & waterspouts yday and with similar tropical/light
flow regime in place wouldn`t be all that surprised if a few more
are observed this morning.

Sat-Mon wx is pretty much rinse/repeat of todays. Slight
variations in moisture levels, heating & triggers will cause some
fluctuations in coverage. At this time, guidance is suggesting
Sunday might be wetter of all the days and next shift may need to
bump pops up with any continued future model consistency.

Should see diminishing rain chances & slightly warmer temps in
the mid-late work week wx period as ridging in the vicinity takes
shape. Precip chances then take an upward turn next weekend as a
strange/unusual pattern takes shape. Medium range solns are in
decent agreement taking the base of the trof now about 700 miles
west of southern California across the Rockies and toward the
Great Lakes by Thurs. Then it takes a southward turn, cuts off and
begins retrograding to the SW. How far SW is in question and is
currently beyond the scope of the 7-day period with this package. 47

MARINE...
Streamer showers (and possibly a thunderstorm or two) developing
across the coastal waters early this morning should persist through
midday. Expect the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the late night into morning hours through the
beginning of next week, with locally enhanced winds and waves in the
vicinity of stronger cells.

Tide levels are expected to remain around 1-1.5 ft above normal
around the bays through the weekend as flood waters continue to
drain into the Gulf. Otherwise, light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow will persist over the next several days. Winds may
approach caution criteria late Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm
system develops over the High Plains.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 74 89 74 88 / 30 10 30 10 40
Houston (IAH) 89 73 89 75 89 / 50 10 40 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 86 / 40 20 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Houston HOU 02:53 PM Partly Cloudy 90ºF 73ºF 58% Vrbl 7 29.94 in 6:20 AM/8:21 PM
Hit 90 at Hobby.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
houstonia
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
Contact:

234
WGUS84 KHGX 102139
FLSHGX

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

TXC201-339-102230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0128.160610T2139Z-160610T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
439 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 434 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN TOMBALL...CYPRESS...AND WILLOWBROOK
MALL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO AND HALF INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
EXPECT MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...PINEHURST...GREATER GREENSPOINT...SPRING...
STAGECOACH...CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...ACRES HOME...GREATER INWOOD...HOOKS
AIRPORT...HIDDEN VALLEY AND CARVERDALE.

LAT...LON 3005 9541 2986 9543 2990 9578 3020 9578
houstonia
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
Contact:

725
WGUS84 KHGX 102237
FLSHGX

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

TXC201-339-102330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0129.160610T2237Z-160610T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
537 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 537 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SPRING...ALDINE...GREATER GREENSPOINT...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...
SPLASHTOWN...ACRES HOME...GREATER INWOOD...HIDDEN VALLEY...INDEPENDENCE
HEIGHTS...CENTRAL NORTHWEST...NORTHWESTERN BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING AND EASTEX / JENSEN AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
Ounce
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 10:18 pm
Location: Houston
Contact:

I'd like to report that we received our 30% chance of rain at Chimney Rock and the Katy Freeway at 0.01" of rain at the Weatherbug site. Now receiving a free steam bath.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 7086
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

It's like a sauna out there:

Image
Post Reply
  • Information